Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll
Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series. Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery. Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise.
Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized. In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko. In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan. Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks.
Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes. After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.
In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ? Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.
Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995. Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league. Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances. They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot. This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best.
Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick. On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode. Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch.
How important is the lottery to Memphis? They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.
Desperation Level – 10
Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant. They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered. However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks. Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around. They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player. Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran.
Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level. A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.
Desperation Level – 7
Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery. They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games. When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.
No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle. Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams. Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft. However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.
Desperation Level – 7
Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery. If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick. If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix. The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant. They almost have to end up with the top pick. Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle.
This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.
Desperation Level – 10
Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA. If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone. Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone. Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement. They need a top two pick as badly as anyone. Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline.
If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.
Desperation Level – 9
Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league. Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team. They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season. Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team. How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.
Desperation Level – 5
Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left. I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season. Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.
Desperation Level – 10
Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus. They are a player away from becoming a playoff team. The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint. They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals. Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season. Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.
Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes)
New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery. The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…
Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks. If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal. Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East. Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own. They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system. Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.
Desperation Level – 3
Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age. The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one. Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again. These guys need a franchise player in the worst way. Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden).
This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral.
Desperation Level – 9
Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success. Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players. If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery. If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business. Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out. Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine.
The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed. They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.
Desperation Level – 8.5
Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level. A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team.
Desperation Level – 6.5
New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs. They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season. It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference. Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.
Desperation Level – 5
Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess. Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator. Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach. The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him. This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff. They need a star player to help Brand out. Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s.
Desperation Level – 9
Of course, all of this may be irrelevant. In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit. In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups. There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA.
We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.
You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick? I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead. This year the second pick is just that important.
CORRECTION and UPDATE: Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks. Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5. Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams. The one major difference was the Clippers. Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.