Game 34: Denver Nuggets 115 – Phoenix Suns 137

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

I need to throw something out there on the Nuggets effort against the Suns last night before you all give up on me.  I did not get to watch much of the game last night.  Tonight I was able to watch some of the recording of it, but not as closely as I would have liked.   

What I was hoping to see was that the Nuggets played well, but the Suns were just hot and there was nothing they could do. Well, the Suns were hot, but the Nuggets effort on defense was not what I had hoped to see, but then again, when is it?  They were constantly out of position in their transition D, even when they had the opportunity to get back after a made basket, which helped the Suns get out to an early lead.   

I thought Iverson and Carmelo played hard on offense, but the supporting cast did not offer much help.  Melo hit the boards as hard as he had in the last week or two and AI continued his offensive attack.   

Nene was very solid as he rebounded well and was able to score in the paint although it seemed like most of his points came late in the game against half hearted defense. 

I am not sure who would beat the Suns when Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion combine to make 12 threes(!), but the Nuggets made sure they had no chance to win because of their lax defense.  Even when the  Nuggets made a run to get it down to 11 or 12 points the Suns would hit a couple of threes and that would be that. 

I loathe excuses, but playing Phoenix on the road on the last game in a four games in five nights stretch is not an appealing situation to be in.  I think some of their indifference on defense could be attributed to the schedule even though it kills me to say that.

Other Observations From Game 34:

 – Martin looks like he is healthy again.

Check out the Bright Side of the Sun if you are looking for something from the Suns perspecitve.

Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

Game 18: Denver Nuggets 115 – Miami Heat 89

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Due to some extenuating circumstances, nothing bad I assure you, I was not able to watch much of the game last night.  I missed a lot of it live and only saw a little bit here and there of the replay.  So from what I saw here is an abbreviated report. 

Only Observations From Game 18:

 – The Nuggets rolled another poor team at home which once again makes it difficult to draw conclusions as to how they are improving.  That being said, they did really move very well without the ball on offense and they took advantage of that by making quick aggressive passes.  I do not like just reciting stats from the box score, but I will have to rely on some of that as I did not see all of the game.  The combination of pushing the pace, the Nuggets were +16 in fast break points, and the movement and passing mentioned above gave them an advantage of +24 in points in the paint.  They also topped 30 assists against only 12 turnovers.  Had Von Wafer not committed three turnovers in his five minutes on the court, their turnover total would have been even more impressive.   

I have no idea why they cannot play with that kind of focus and purpose on offense every game.  I realize teams can get in a funk here and there, but it should never happen for a prolonged period of time.  The Nuggets had gone for four or five games in a row without playing smart offense and that is inexcusable.   

There has been, and still is, a great deal of talk about how difficult it should be for teams to guard Melo and Iverson.  When they are focusing on isolations and dribbling in place long enough to make the ball lopsided they allow almost any defense to set up and be prepared to stop them, but when the entire team is passing the ball quickly the defense gets out of position and it is at that point when Carmelo and AI become almost unstoppable. 

 – Miami is really bad.  Shaq is at the end of his rope.  He may hang around and finish out his contract, but I cannot imagine how much of a liability he will be in the next two or three seasons.  I also do not think Wade is completely healed form his offseason surgeries.  I believe I heard them say that he has not dunked since he returned nine or ten games ago.  For a player that relies so much on his explosive athleticism that has to be concerning for the Heat.  Of course, I wish I had dunked nine or ten games ago.  I have to settle for lowering the basket at my in-laws house in order to accomplish that feat. 

The Heat are stuck in a position financially and talent wise that is somewhat comparable to the Knicks.  They are paying Shaq so much that they cannot afford to bring in any other players and they have no assets that anyone would want in a trade.  It would make sense to rebuild, but because of the presence of Shaq they have to play every season to try to make the playoffs.  They cannot allow themselves to rest Wade and play for the future.  Maybe they can buy Shaq out and go for a good draft pick, but financially they will still be a quagmire of poor contracts and poor players.  Will Wade want to wait around for a rebuilding project?  He signed an abbreviated extension that will allow him to become a free agent at the end of the 2009-2010 season.  Don’t think he will not leave after that deal is up. 

For all the debate over which star has the worst supporting cast in the NBA give me Wade over Kobe or LeBron by a mile for having to play with that pathetic bunch.  Because of that, I can see him leaving town at the earliest opportunity. 

 – But, who cares about the Heat?  Let’s get back to the Nuggets.  This is Born a Nuggets Fan, not Born a Heat Fan.  Obviously Kenyon Martin was great last night.  I had two concerns when they traded for him.  First of all, why do a sign and trade giving him an even higher salary and sacrificing three first round picks when it was pretty obvious that the Nets were not going to match, but that is all water from the river Kiki was sent up the river on under the bridge.  More importantly I was worried about his ability to guard the Duncans and Garnetts of the world.  Now that he has played for the Nuggets for a few seasons, and unfortunately not played for a couple, he proved that he does a decent job of defending in the post against almost any player.   

When the Nuggets are running, and he is healthy, Martin is as valuable of a player as the Nuggets anticipated him to be when they traded for him.  The problem comes in when they start playing a half court style game where he becomes just an average player.  He takes too many jumpers and has no offensive move he can rely on in the post, but we knew those things when they signed him.  In order for the Nuggets to get the most out of him, and really out of their entire roster, they must run every game. 

From a health perspective Kenyon is looking better and better every game.  He is definitely getting his explosiveness back as he threw down a handful of monster dunks last night.  We will have to enjoy it while it lasts because the likelihood of him suffering another injury is about equal to the likelihood of people being upset with politicians or kids making fun of portly people. 

 – I mentioned how I thought it was very sad that the Nuggets labeled November as a positive month because they won ten games.  Of course the Nuggets have a handful of excuses as to why they struggled in some winnable games.  One of those excuses was injuries.  You all know how I feel about that.  This roster has plenty of depth to handle a couple of players missing games here and there (especially when one of them is Chucky Atkins).  The second excuse I have heard leak out is the fact that they played five back to back games during November.   

How about we examine that for a minute?  They went 2-3 in the five second halves of back to back games.  Remove those five games and they were still only 8-4, which is good, but not great.  They have 14 more back to back sets this season.  Do we have to write off more than half of those as losses?   

I looked back at last season’s schedules for several teams to see how they did on back to backs.  Believe it or not Nuggets players, it is possible to win after playing the night before. The five teams that finished ahead of the Nuggets last season and their records on the second night of back to backs look like this:

Dallas Mavericks 14-1
Phoenix Suns 14-7
San Antonio Spurs 12-4
Houston Rockets 9-9
Utah Jazz 9-9

And then we have the Denver Nuggets who came in with a record in the second half of back to backs last season at 8-12.  As pointed out earlier, they have started this year at 2-3.  If you are good at math, you may notice that 8-12 and 2-3 are equal ratios.  They both equate to a .400 winning percentage.  If the Nuggets carry on the type of play they have exhibited on the second half of back to backs last year and the first month this year, they will end up with a record somewhere around 7-12 or 8-11.  Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and take the better record of 8-11.  Combined with their current seven losses that equals 18 losses that they have or will have.  Thus in order to win 55 games they can only afford to lose nine more games where they enjoy at least one day of rest before tip off.  They have 50 such games left therefore they will have to have a record of 41-9 to reach 55 wins this season.  If we further extrapolate their 8-4 record in those such games they will end up 33-17 or thereabouts.   

Add all of that up and they have a final record of 50-32.  That would give them the fourth 50 win season since joining the NBA and the first since 1987-1988.  Not bad, but definitely not good enough to get home court advantage or a promising matchup in the playoffs.  

Before we start getting excited about a 50 win season, remember that this was what I thought was perhaps the easiest month on their schedule.  To me that means that when things get tougher, it will be reflected in their record and there is no guarantee that they can continue on even at the somewhat disappointing pace they have set. 

What can be done?  It all comes back to the mental crutch the Nuggets allow themselves to utilize.  They give themselves the option of losing certain games before they even play because of injuries.  Now we have found out that they give themselves the option to lose on the tail end of back to backs because those games are more difficult.  The number of games that they allow themselves to lose is growing and growing.  What next?  They do not like the pressure of nationally televised games?  Dancing With The Stars is over so they have too much pent up frustration to focus on the game? 

The Nuggets can still have a fine season, but they will only accomplish as much as their little minds will allow them to.

Game 4: Denver Nuggets 112 – New York Knicks 119

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I was ready to denounce the Nuggets’ lack of heart in a brief and biting post following the loss to the Knicks, but I have decided to rewatch the fourth quarter before handing out such harsh criticism.   

Here are the facts of the game.  The Nuggets were outscored by 17 points in the fourth quarter.  They were outrebounded by nine.  The Knicks missed 43 shots and ended up with 17 offensive rebounds.  That is a 38% rate. The Knicks shot 13 of 24 in the fourth quarter which is good not great.  They also missed six free throws.  Of those 17 shots where there was a chance for a rebound the Knicks corralled 10 of those rebounds.  Ten out of 17! 

Most of that time Camby and Nene were on the floor together until Nene fouled out with just over two minutes left.  As noted after game three, Nene is looking to be in better shape than he was just a week ago, but he was still worn out by the end of the game.  With no Kenyon Martin my number one question of the game is where was Steven Hunter?  He would have been fresh and would have helped out on the glass in the pivotal fourth quarter.   

After watching the replay, I am a little less frustrated, but maybe it is because I knew what was going to happen.  It was a one point game with under two minutes left.  However, this was a very disappointing result.   

You can talk all you want about how it is impossible to draw conclusions after three or four games, but when you have a trend over the past three seasons and you see the beginning of that trend in the fourth season, that is a good sign that the trend will continue. 

The Nuggets talk of winning 60 or even 55 games is starting to look hollow to me.  Can this team still win 50 games?  Sure.  Can they get home court advantage in the playoffs?  I will answer that question with another question.  How many wins will it take to finish in front of the Spurs, Suns, Mavs or Rockets?  Can they reach that total by losing games at home to New Orleans and against the Knicks?  If the Nuggets do not finish ahead of at least one of those teams, and add Utah to that mix as well, they are going on the road for the first round once again. 

Games like tonight are nearly must wins for the Nuggets to reach their stated goals. 

Other Observations from Game 4:

• Iverson finally had a breakout game.  He shot 13-22 and was the lone bright spot for the Nuggets offensively.   
• Melo was hounded by Renaldo Balkman and faced numerous double teams.  He had his second straight poor shooting game misfiring on 13 of his 20 shots.    
• Is Renaldo Balkman somehow related to the “Shoe Bomber” Richard Reid? 
• The Nuggets are not running.  AI is partly to blame as he jogs the ball up most of the time.  He played that way for over ten years in Philly so it is very difficult for him to transition to a fast paced transition offense.   
• The three point shooting watch continues.  The Nuggets were a respectable 6-16.  J.R. Smith hit a couple before missing two very difficult attempts towards the end of the game.  Melo only took one and missed.  AI only took two and made one.  Kleiza was 2-6 but two of his misses were right online, just a tad too long, which is good.  Najera banked his only try in, but utilized a shot fake from the perimeter to get past his man.     

The Nuggets head into Boston tomorrow and Boston has looked very good to start the season.  The Nuggets will have their work cut out for them, but if they can win tomorrow night in Boston, tonight’s game will not sting so badly.  But if they do go on to lose in Boston, the games in Washington, who will be desperate for a win, and Indy, who has been very impressive, will be crucial. Next Game:  Wednesday @ Boston Celtics – Anyone who discounts this team as a contender because of a lack of depth has not watched them play

Game 1: Denver Nuggets 120 – Seattle Supersonics 103

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What was looking to be a relatively disappointing season opener for the Denver Nuggets suddenly exploded into an example of the type of play that the Nuggets will have to sustain throughout the regular season and playoffs for the season to meet the lofty expectations that have been placed on them. 

The Achilles heel for this team over the previous four seasons has been three point shooting.  Well, three point shooting was actually a strength of the Nuggets tonight as their superlative shot making from behind the arc actually blew the game open in the fourth quarter.   

The Nuggets hit 11 threes in 27 attempts even though they missed their last four attempts after the game had been decided.  During the 42 minutes or so the outcome of the game was in doubt, they were 11 for 23.   

I tabbed Linas Kleiza as the player that the Nuggets needed to become the Robert Horry type unheralded role player who could make the big play, or big shot, when the Nuggets needed it.   

Tonight was a great step in that direction.  Linas hit five of his first seven threes including three straight in the fourth quarter to help seal the outcome.  The first Kleiza three of the quarter made it a two possession game as it put the Nuggets up six with just under 11 minutes left in the game.  His next one put the Nuggets up double digits with seven and a half minutes left.  The third put the game away less than a minute later.   

Eduardo Najera made 2 of 3 three pointers he attempted as well.  Before the 06-07 season Najera was hitting threes in practice, but he was never able to bring that part of his game to the court during the regular season.  He has continued to work on it and now has the green light to shoot threes.  If he can keep his confidence up, he should be effective throughout the season. 

Melo was also able to hit his threes.  I mentioned that he had shown a greatly improved shot from downtown at the end of last season.  Tonight he showed that it may not have been a fluke.  Melo hit three of his first four threes before missing his last two.  When Melo sets himself and does not rush it or force the shot, he is very consistent from deep.  His last two misses were somewhat forced and were basically heat checks.  If he can avoid those types of rushed threes, I believe he can be a 40% three point shooter for the season.  However, he has such a scoring mindset, I do not think he can keep from taking those heat check threes after he makes a couple. 

Other thoughts on game one of the 07-08 season:

• AI was very good except for a stretch in the middle of the third quarter where he forced his shot a little too much going 0-4 with two turnovers.  He was very good at attacking the basket and scoring as well as kicking out to open shooters.  I doubt the Nuggets will lose many games where AI has double digit assists.  In fact, the Nuggets are now 12-1 when he does so.
• The defensive focus is still not there.  I do not understand why NBA players cannot understand the basic principle of see man and see ball at the same time.  It is not that difficult to get in position to see what the man with the ball is doing and also know if your man is cutting to the basket at the same time.  On a couple of occasions Seattle players were able to sneak into the paint for an easy layup with no Nugget defender having any idea what was happening.  This is the type of defensive lapse that good teams do not have.
• Nene is absolutely out of shape.  There were rumors going around that Nene was in the same great shape that he was in to close out last year.  I was somewhat skeptical of that since he has been hampered by a calf strain since the Tournament of the Americas, but since the media reported it, I believed it.  I should know better. 
• K-Mart is back, but he is not the old K-Mart.  He played very well in limited minutes, but he does not have the same explosive lift he used to.  Of course, there is no way that he should after two microfracture surgeries.  He still is a tremendous leaper, but not quite at the level he used to be.  He has proven in the preseason and tonight that he can still be very effective and he has still maintained enough of his athleticism that he does not need to alter his game.
• Nuggets fans will have to get used to seeing runs made by both the Nuggets and their opponents.  On at least two occasions the Nuggets were able to take a ten point lead only to see the Sonics charge back and reclaim the lead.  Because of the pace the Nuggets play at they can make spurts, but they are also susceptible to giving up spurts.  The Suns have the same problem.
• Durant played at the level that most everyone expected.  He is still struggling to adjust to the NBA game, but he showed that he can score in a variety of ways.  He is settling for his jumper too often, but as we have seen with Melo, it is so easy for these guys to take a relatively open 20 footer that it takes time for them to learn to pass on that shot and drive or keep the ball moving.  Durant is absolutely going to be amazing.  I expect him to post numbers very similar to what Carmelo did his rookie year with his points per game average surging as the season goes on.

 Congratulations to the Nuggets on a win to open the regular season that will hopefully kick start them on their way to that 14-3 start I am hoping for. 

Worthless fact:
The Nuggets have made 11 three pointers in their past two regular season games dating back to the last game of the 06-07 season in San Antonio. 

Contenders? That is a First for Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I have been a die hard Nuggets fan since the mid 1980s (maybe not quite from the time I was out of the womb) and during that time the Nuggets have never been trumpeted as potential world champs heading into the season.  There have been a few nice teams over the years, and a lot of poor ones, but at no time have the Nuggets been considered anything more than a potential playoff team.   

That is until now. 

I have already gone on record to say that this team will have to show me that they are going to produce at an exceptional level before I believe they actually will.  However, they do have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.  That is a fact.  In the Carmelo Era they have not been able to run with the Suns nor have they been able to plod it out against the Spurs or Mavs.  This year may be different and here is why: 

Healthy Bigs – The Nuggets have not had both Kenyon Martin and Nene available at the same time for the past two seasons.  Both can run the floor, both can guard Tim Duncan, both can pass and both can play at the same time.  Obviously, there is no guarantee that these two will stay healthy and both of them will have their minutes monitored to start the season.  As long they can stay healthy they will make for a strong and versatile front court along with Marcus Camby who can also run the floor and pass very well. 

Melo Still Surging – Carmelo Anthony made another leap forward in his development as a player the first part of last season.  That was derailed by the suspension for the brawl with the pathetic Knicks.  Melo has become more and more efficient as a scorer and he continues to develop as evidenced by his performance in the Tournament of the Americas.   

He is a very complete offensive player, but he has three weaknesses.  He settles for too many midrange jumpers.  He can make them though and if he can make them at the rate he did in Las Vegas this summer, this may not be a weakness after all.  Second, he gets his shot blocked frequently in the paint.  Melo is an explosive leaper when he is on the move move, but when it comes to launching himself at the rim after being flat footed in the paint, he is not so dynamic.  Lastly, he insists on shooting threes.  Melo cranked them up at a rate of 2.3 three point attempts a game last season.  That is ridiculous considering he is barely more than a 25% shooter from there.  Perhaps there is a silver lining to this cloud as well.  Over the last month of the season and against the Spurs in the playoffs Melo starting hitting his threes.  He shot 21-46 from behind the arc.  Do the math and that is a rate of 46%.  Melo is not going to become Jason Kapono, but if he can hit threes at a 35% rate, or better, he can help answer some of the constant concerns that follow the Nuggets regarding outside shooting.  He has the form to be a good shooter so this is not an unlikely scenario. 

There is no reason not to believe Melo will not make another stride ahead in his development this season which is great news for the Nuggets. 

Road Warriors – The Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins last season and finished with better than a .500 record at 22-19.  This is a team of veterans and they should be tough to rattle on the road.  There is no reason not to expect this group to build on last season’s success. 

Roll out the Role Player – Another area the Nuggets have fallen short the past few seasons of the Melo Era is they have not had that one role player who is capable of driving the stake in Dracula’s heart.  The Spurs have Horry who is always ready to make a big block or hit the big shot.  The Nuggets need a player like that, but is just such a performer on this roster?  The most likely player to grow into that role is Linas Kleiza.  He is developing a solid three point shot and has a knack for being at the right place ar the right time.  A secondary candidate may be Bobby Jones who has been running some with the first team in practices and has shown a quality three point stroke in the preseason.   

No Cruising – The Nuggets have not put a great deal of emphasis on the regular season.  They do want to win their division, but that is no longer a guarantee of having a playoff series with home court advantage against a lesser team.  They realize that a big key to getting out of the first round is avoiding the Spurs.  In order to do that they know they cannot cruise through stretches in the schedule.  Teams that earn home court advantage and the right to play the Lakers and Grizzlies of the world in the first round do not take games off.  I think the Nuggets recognize this and will put a new sense of urgency into the regular season. 

What does it all mean though?  Again, I have heard all the right things coming from Nuggets’ players the past two or three seasons in training camp, but when the season starts expectations are rarely met.  If the Nuggets have truly learned from the past few seasons and they are ready to validate that potential NBA champion label that some have affixed on them, we should know right off the bat.   

This team has been plagued by slow starts the past three seasons.  I believe we will know if the Nuggets are for real by the end of November.  This team has a legitimate shot to start off in the 13-4 or even 14-3 range.  They do not play San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas or Utah and only play the Rockets once during that stretch.  However, if we are looking at another 10-7 start, I am afraid that it will be more of the same for Nuggets fans in 2007-2008.    

That would be very disappointing for the first season in my life where the Nuggets are considered to be championship contenders. 

Accute Summer League Obsservations

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

• Marco Belinelli has been the most enjoyable player to watch. He is a complete chucker, but has been dialed in enough to make a great first impression.  He is one of those players who seems to be a better shooter when turning around with a hand in his face than spotting up wide open.  Of course, so far he has made plenty of shots both open and well defended.  He is also a tremendous passer always hitting his teammates in stride no matter how small of a window he has to squeeze the pass through.
• Golden State has the most entertaining team as a whole.  Along side of Belinelli they have Pierre Pierce, who was kicked off the team at Iowa a couple of seasons ago and Kelenna Azubuike from Kentucky who played with them sparingly last season.  These three have pushed the pace and set each other up beautifully.  They all have been making the right decision every time down the court.
• Jose Juan Berea has had a marvelous start to his summer.  The mighty mite has done a great job of running the offense while scoring points when he has to.  He would be a great change of pace point guard for Dallas to bring off the bench next season.  Devin Harris can play fast, but not like Berea and he is nowhere near the shooter Berea is.
• The next time that either Johan Petro or Mouhamed Sene pass out of the post will be the first.  These guys have been complete black holes.  I am sure the coaches want them to work on their post up game, but they should not ignore working on passing out of the post since that is what both of them will be doing most of the time in the NBA.
• Kevin Durant has absolutely been a disappointment. Everyone will say that it is just summer league, but a player with his abilities should not be shooting 25%.  He has two more games to turn it around.  The fact that he has not recorded an assist after the attention he gets from defenses is absurd.  On the bright side, he has done a good job of drawing fouls even though many of them are non shooting fouls and some of his statistical ineptitude can be attributed to whoever the official scorer is.  Against the Knicks he blocked a couple of shots in the first half that he did not get credit for, stole a pass that he did not get credit for and he definitely had more than one rebound.
• Yi Jianlian has been decent.  Like Durant he has not really gotten in a groove yet. The talent is there.  His offensive game is already relatively polished.  He has good footwork and it is difficult to not be impressed when you see his spin move in the post and his step back jumper on the perimeter.  He will be a very good inside out offensive player.  Like Durant, he draws a lot of non shooting fouls because he posts up so aggressively.
• Somehow Marcus Banks scored 42 points and made four out of five three pointers in the Suns first game.  He must have thought he was back in college at UNLV.  I watched the archived broadcast of the Phoenix/Cleveland game (just to see how on earth Banks scored 42 points) and the announcer must have been Marcus Banks’ old roommate from UNLV.  Whenever someone scored he said the player’s first name and then yelled their last name while increasing the volume and pitch.  Every time someone scored it was the same.  There was one instance where he did something different.  Marcus Banks made a common everyday one handed break away dunk and he suddenly yells, “Slam Dunk!” followed by the standard, “Marcus BANKS!”  I wondered if he would get that excited about every dunk and on the next possession Dwayne Jones dunked for Cleveland and we once again treated with the standard first and last name.  How disappointing that must have been for Dwayne.  There may have been more than 20 people watching this game from the stands if they just had silence instead of the announcer doing his shtick.  It got old fast.
• Louis Williams has been a scoring machine.  He has been able to get to the basket at will and his jumper looks to be much improved.  He plays a similar style to Iverson which makes it doubtful his success will translate with the parent club as he will not be able to dominate the ball.  He will be able to score though if he is given the chance and his constant parade to the free throw line shows that he is being aggressive attacking the basket and not just settling for jumpers.
• Former Nugget fan favorite Ryan Bowen is on the Timberwolves summer league team.  It still makes me mad that Nugget fans were so attached to him.  I appreciated his hustle as much as anyone, but for people to have said if they traded him they would stop watching the Nuggets was a joke.  He is a 10^th man at best on a shallow roster.  Enjoy his hustle, but do not make him a folk hero.  Of course these comments are about five years to late, but I did not have a blog back then.
• The Nuggets are getting very good performances from Will Blalock, Jelani McCoy, Curtis Sumpter and the prize prospect Von Wafer.

Blalock has done a good job pushing the pace, making the right decision when running the offense and has played pretty solid defense.  If Steve Blake ends up going somewhere else, they will replace him with a veteran, but they will probably be interested in bringing in a young player like Blalock to add a prospect for the future.

McCoy has been very good showing his athleticism and shot blocking ability.  He definitely belongs on someone’s bench. His offense has been limited to put backs, but he is playing very well.  At worst he is a player that you could put on Tim Duncan for a few spot minutes and would provide insurance in case of foul trouble.  We mentioned him as a potential replacement for Jamal Sampson and at this point, Sampson has the size advantage, but McCoy has an advantage in the athleticism department.  He can run the floor very well which is important for a Nuggets big man.  McCoy is listed at his standard 245, but he looks bigger to me than he did in the past.

Going into summer league play we mentioned Curtis Sumpter is an intriguing player and he just needed to be able to shoot from outside.  Well, he has done that and more.  He has shown a very good feel for when to slash to the basket, made some nice passes, been active and even made a couple of three pointers.  If he continues to play like this, he should be invited to camp along with Blalock and McCoy.

Von Wafer is the player with the best shot at being in the rotation next season and he has been good, but not great.  He missed all four of his three point attempts in their first game, but cashed in on three of four in the second game including an angry three after missing two free throws with a defender in his face (on the three pointer, not the free throws).  He has also done a good job being aggressive and making his way into the lane by utilizing a pump fake on the perimeter.  He even tried to ram a dunk down on top of Pops Mensah-Bonsu the pogo stick from George Washington and drew the foul.  He has not been a star, but is definitely showing why the Nuggets are excited about him.

Larry O’Bannon played very well in the second game showing a good touch from outside and solid athleticism after barely seeing the floor in game one.

I ripped Lamond Murray’s inclusion on the Nuggets’ roster and despite a very solid shooting performance in the first game I stand by it.  He was much worse in game two.  They conveniently forgot to list his birth date on his summer league profile page, but undeterred I found out that he turned 34 in April.

Skita has shown progress in his understanding of the game, but is still no where near being an NBA player.  He has one of the worst spin moves when driving the lane, but he insists on using it often.  Most players change direction when they spin to get around a defender or seal the defender on their back.  Skita just barrels straight ahead into the defender.  It is neither graceful nor effective. 

Other players that have not looked good at all are Dontaye Draper, Bracey Wright and Matt Freije.  Sorry to any family members or college buddies of these three who may have read that, but it is true.

Summer League Roster Announced

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The Nuggets summer league roster has been announced and for a team without a draft pick last week, there are some intriguing names on the list. 

Anthony Carter, DerMarr Johnson and Jamal Sampson are players who may not be back next season and will need to be replaced.  For that matter, Steve Blake will probably be gone too, but I doubt his replacement is on the summer league roster.  It is possible that one or two of the players on the summer league roster might make the team so let’s look at the players that have the potential to stick.

Will Blaylock, PG, Iowa State – Blaylock was a second round pick by the Pistons last season and is a guard who can penetrate and set up teammates.  He is a poor shooter though and is on the small side, but he has the talent to make a roster.

Mark Karcher, G/F, Temple – Karcher was the best player for a couple of years at Temple and is a decent scorer.  I have no idea how his game has advanced over the past couple of seasons as he has not been in the NBA, but he has potential to create offense off the bench.

Jelani McCoy, F/C, UCLA – McCoy has been in and out of the NBA, most recently out, but has the size and athleticism to make a roster.  He has seven years of NBA experience so if he can bring something to the table in summer league, he may be a replacement for Sampson.  I do not think I would make that exchange, but it is a possibility.

Curtis Sumpter, F, Villanova – Sumpter is a very talented player who has had several knee injuries that derailed his college career.  He is more of a power forward in a small forward’s body, but he has skills and if he can develop a decent midrange jumper, he may be able to make it in the NBA.

Dajuan Wagner, G, Memphis – Wagner was an absolute stud in high school and at Memphis.  He came out after one season and was drafted between Skita and Nene.  He had some strange flukie health problems (an infection that spread form his bladder to his urethra, does not sound fun) and is trying to get back to the NBA.  He was on Golden State’s roster to begin last season, but was let go early on.  It is unlikely he will ever be what he could have been had he stayed healthy, but if he can recapture a little of that talent he had entering the league he can be a contributor in the NBA.  

There are also two players that make me wonder what on earth the Nuggets were thinking.  First of all Skita is on the roster.  Do the Nuggets really need to bring in a guy who represents one of the worst decisions and biggest missed opportunities in team history when the Nuggets could have drafted Amare Stoudemire or Caron Butler instead of Skita?  Why Skita?  Was Mark Macon unavailable?

Secondly, Lamond Murray who has not been in the league for probably two or three years and has no contributed anything for probably five years is on the roster.  Do we really need to see what he can do?  Why not bring in Richard Dumas or John Wallace?  Hopefully, he is being considered as a potential coaching candidate, because if he actually plays I will be very confused.

There are 14 players on the roster.  Would 12 have been too few?  

Who is not there?  Kiki’s big reach from the 2005 draft Ricky Sanchez is AWOL.  He has been playing with the Idaho Stampede in the CBA, but no one ever mentions him as someone the Nuggets are watching anymore.  I can count seven players that were drafted behind Ricky that have a future in the NBA and three that I personally would have picked ahead of him (Andray Blatche, Monta Ellis or Ersan Ilyasova in that order).  Actually, there are probably about 20 or 30 players that I would have picked ahead of him, but those three were guys that I really liked (and still do). 

The player to watch is Von Wafer who the Nuggets called up from the NBDL last season.  Wafer hit 45% of his threes and if he can even just play acceptable defense and mistake free offense the Nuggets could really use that shooting.  The Nuggets picked him up last season knowing that they had no picks in the 2007 draft so that they had at least one prospect heading into the season.  It may work out and if it does, we will see the first signs of that starting this weekend in Las Vegas.

Update:  The Nuggets have announced that Dajuan Wagner will not be part of their summer league team. No reason was given and I have yet to see Wagner on any other team’s summer league roster. The Nuggets have added Bracey Wright who played (or should I say watched) for Minnesota the past couple of seasons.  

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

– How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

– The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

– The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

– Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

– The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

– Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

– All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

– Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.