Reassessing the Sticky Fingers Study – Is Passing Really Helpful?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

When I wrote my sticky fingers post charting how many passes the Nuggets and Celtics made before shooting everyone thought, “that is nice, you certainly have a lot of free time on your hands, but we have no idea how many passes are made in an average NBA possession so this is all pretty meaningless.” 

You are right.  We need something to compare those numbers to.  Well, I have found it. 

82games.com has a study where they chart the ratio of possessions, shooting percentage and points per 100 possessions by the number of “touches” made on that possession.  (Yea, I am not the only one with free time on my hands am I?)  They did not start counting touches until the team had the ball in a “reasonable attacking position” so they did not include the cross court passes in the backcourt when bringing the ball up against pressure that would have counted as touches, but not touches.  Apparently they did include fast break possessions which might skew the numbers towards fewer touches slightly. 

They found that the number of touches per possession does not necessarily increase points per possession nor does it increase field goal percentage.  In fact, there may be a negative impact on passing the ball too frequently.   

They determined that the average number of touches per possession was two.  23% of all possessions consisted of one touch, 30% had two touches another 23% consisted of three touches, four touches were made on 13% of possessions and the last 11% of possessions saw five or more touches made before the shot. 

Field goal percentage was highest with two touches at 49.5%.  One touch was second with a rate of 49.1% made field goals.  With three touches shooting dropped down to 47.8% and after four touches it bottomed out at 44.8%.  There was a slight rebound on possessions with five or more touches as teams shot 45.7% in those situations. 

The study then questions how important touches are for getting good shots.  It looks like teams are going to get their best chance at scoring on their second touch, or after one pass.  That flies in the face of what we believe to be true, that teams should pass the ball around and move on offense in order to get good shots.   

This is bad news, right?  Has one on one play truly taken over the game of basketball to the point where passing has a negative impact on offense?   

If this were a television show I would put “To be continued…” at the bottom of the screen while the characters all have dismayed looks on their faces.  We all know what happens on the continued portion of the show.  No matter how bad things are in the first installment, things always end up OK by the end of the second show. 

Anyway, that was my way of saying here comes the good news.   

They then go on to chart touches per second and this is where we see a dynamic difference that displays the importance of moving the ball around on offense. 

When touches per second were higher than 0.25 (which means there is a pass every four seconds or less) the offense shot over 50%.  On the flip side when touches per second were below 0.25 the offense shot 44%.   

That is quite a disparity, but one pass every four seconds is not really an example of quick ball movement is it?  To go further, on possessions where a team had their touches per second above 0.45 their shooting percentage increased to 58.5%!  If a team can pass the ball every two seconds, the numbers dictate that they will see a massive increase in their shooting percentage.  However, 57% of possessions that they charted had a touches per second rate of below 0.25.   

Now in our television analogy this is where we would go to a commercial, because wait, there is more! 

They go on to look at the impact of dribbling on shooting percentage.  On shots where a player catches and shoots, or takes zero dribbles, the field goal percentage comes out to 48.4%, which is pretty solid.   

When a player dribbles once, they shoot 47.5%, which is still good, but not as good.  Think about the times you see a player dribble once and shoot.  It is either a rhythm dribble for an open shot or a longer pull up jumper.  Most times a player cannot drive all the way to the basket on just one dribble, but it does happen. 

When a player takes two dribbles and shoots they shoot 50%.  Two dribbles is usually enough to get any of these athletes to the rim or get to some open space or else they are shooting a mid to close range pull up jumper. 

Those numbers are all pretty acceptable, but when a player takes three or more dribbles things go downhill quickly with a charted a field goal percentage of 45.7.   

When you add everything together in order to have the most efficient offense possible you want an offense where no one takes more than two dribbles and the ball should to be passed every two seconds.   

Does that sound like the Nuggets? 

No? 

Well for the final kicker, guess which coach they site in the article as a coach who stresses doing something right away with the ball?  You guessed it, none other than our own George Karl. 

Keep those things in mind as you watch the Nuggets play.  How quickly are they passing?  How often does someone either hold the ball or dribble it over and over, even if they are moving around?  Does it look like George Karl is getting on the players in an attempt to get them to do something quickly with the ball? 

I hope all of this helps put the sticky fingers study into a little better perspective.  If I was any good at this I would have presented this information first and then looked at what the Nuggets were doing on offense, but hey, I am doing my best here so thanks for cutting me a little slack.

To see the full study click here.

How Not to Run the Pick and Roll

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

It is time for me to share my thoughts on the failings of the Nuggets’ pick and roll game.  The idea for this came to me during a certain blow out loss during the Eastern Conference road swing the Nuggets completed last weekend.   

When the pick and roll is run correctly, it can be the premise for a team’s entire offense.  It creates an instant advantage for the offense and forces the defense to either surrender an open shot or to scramble to cover their disadvantage, which creates an advantage for the offensive team somewhere. 

On the other hand, when a pick and roll is executed poorly it not only is frustrating, it makes the team look very inept.  Unfortunately for the Nuggets they have looked inept running the pick and roll for much of the season.  We are talking Britney-Spears-as-a-mother inept or Billy-King-as-a-GM inept. 

Most of the breakdowns on the pick and roll have come from one or more of the following four problems. 

1.  Spacing – The Nuggets seem to have two predominant sets for the pick and roll.  One set involves the power forward setting a screen for Melo or AI and the other has Melo setting a screen for AI with the majority of the Nuggets screen and roll action involve the first instance with the power forward screening for AI.   

Watch what happens after the run the pick and roll in this situation.  Usually the rolling player will not get nearly enough space from the location the pick was made and where AI is driving off of the pick.   

The other issue is there have been times where they have run a side pick and roll with a third player posting (or standing doing absolutely nothing) on the same side as the pick and roll.  There is absolutely no room for anyone to maneuver in that set.  They seem to have gotten better at this.  

Nene is horrible at rolling.  If you do not believe me, I guess you will have to trust me for the next five weeks until you can notice for yourself.  When he sets a screen for AI he basically rolls right next to him creating a traffic jam.  In one instance against Boston Nene rolled right along side AI and they both basically ran into a third Nugget player who was standing on the block.  How many defenders do you think it took to guard that?  I bet the Celtics could have stopped that play with zero defenders allowing their five players to cover the other two Nuggets like Jackie Christie covers Doug. 

The best “roller” on the team, also known as the anti-Nene, is Kenyon Martin.  Martin does a great job of setting stone wall picks, gets wide and moves away from the path of the player driving off the pick and then cuts strong to the basket.  He not only ensures the ball handler separation from his defender, but he also provides a very nice passing lane.  If he receives the pass, he takes it strong at the rim.  If you are a young player who would like to see how to properly run the pick and roll, watch Kenyon Martin.   

I think that is the first time I have ever encouraged anyone, especially youngsters, to emulate K-Mart. 

2.  Shot Selection – Even in a poorly run pick and roll the ball handler usually has at least a slight opening with which to operate.  I have already lamented the Nuggets propensity to take shots after one pass or less in the half court.  This is a big reason why.  Whether it is AI, Melo or even J.R. Smith from time to time, they all see that gap to get off a shot and they just attack.  I like their aggressive attitude, but many times they take a difficult shot because they think to themselves, “I have an advantage, I have to exploit it.”   

The problem is not that they are entirely ineffective.  In fact, AI can usually either get off a decent shot or get fouled, but when the pass the ball around and make the defense work they almost always get a great shot opportunity.  This goes back to the defensive conundrum that a good pick and roll creates.  As they collapse on the player with the ball, they open up new weaknesses in their defense.  Frequently another couple of passes can create a wide open layup or dunk instead of a contested one. 

A new advantage for the Nuggets is now that they (apparently or as Jim Rome would say, allegedly) have a stable of three point shooters they can kick a pass to the opposite baseline and defenses will have to charge the shooter.  That will allow them to swing the ball around and get a wide open seam on the side of the floor where the pick and roll originated.  Watch any team play and notice how many times they get an open jumper or layup when the ball is swung form side to side one or more times.  The Nuggets themselves did a great job of this in the second quarter in Washington. 

3.  Dribbling Away From the Screen – One of the tactics that has been successful in the pick and roll game is to set your man up as if you are going to run him through the screen, then dribbling away form the screen.  This is great tactic when the defender is set up correctly and they are either already fighting through the screen or are at least leaning into it.   

Watch how many times Iverson dribbles away from the screen without setting the defender up first.  This can be a very effective tactic, but only if the offensive player sets his man up.  If you do not set up your man it is like me wasting all my free time writing posts for this blog.  Useless.  

4.  Not Taking Advantage of the Rules – My primary assumption heading into this study was that the Nuggets were not taking advantage of how the league officiates screens.  How many illegal screens do you see set in the NBA?  Now think about how many illegal screens you see called in the NBA?  The bottom line is the NBA allows offensive players to set moving screens and surprise ninja secret attack screens. The Nuggets have not adapted their techniques to take advantage of the leeway that offensive players are granted. 

The best weapon a pick and roll offense has in the NBA is the surprise ninja sneak attack high screen.  We see this all the time now where the ball handler is in the middle of the floor above the three point line and a teammate runs up to set a pick almost directly behind the defender.  They slightly shift to one buttock of the defender and as the defender begins to lean that way they quickly jump to the other buttock.  (I am not trying to be gross, just describe how the screener is almost directly behind the defender and shifts every so slightly at the last second.  If you have watched NBA basketball at all the last couple of years, you have seen this numerous times every game.)  This is technically a completely illegal tactic, but the referees continue to allow it.   

Eduardo Najera is the only Nugget who does a decent job of this type of pick.  Martin never does it, but he does such a great job of setting legal picks I think we can let him off the hook.  

Other Screening Observations That Are Neither Here Nor There: 

 – There is one more issue that stands out to me with the problem of the pick and roll.  It is not an issue with the Denver offense as much as it is the defense.  

I think the Nuggets appear to run the pick and roll so poorly on offense because they guard it relatively poorly on defense.  When you see the other team constantly getting open looks and the Nuggets taking contested shots it seems like the other team is doing a better job on offense.  The reality is most teams’ big men do a much better job of jumping the screen and obstructing the dribbler than the Nuggets do.  Marcus Camby does an especially egregious job of failing to stop the ball handler on pick and rolls.   

 – The Celtics did a great job of running a player off of consecutive picks either along the wing or across the top of the circle.  I have noticed the Nuggets implementing this a little since that game. 

 – Nene’s rookie season he was able to pilfer several steals from point guards by jumping the high pick and roll, surprising the point guard with his size and quickness and then poking the ball away for a steal.  Sadly, this is no longer part of his game.  His draft weight was listed at 253.  ESPN lists Nene at 268 and the Nuggets roster page on NBA.com says 250!  I am guessing he is on the high side of 280.  That may have something to do with his lack of quickness.

 – If you have read this far you deserve some kind of prize.  I only wish I had one to give out.  In fact, send me an email (BornANuggetsFan @ gmail.com without spaces of course) with the phrase “What the American Public doesn’t know is what makes them the American public” and you will be recognized as Born A Nuggets Fan Reader of the Month.  Just be sure to include your name or nickname and hometown in the email. 

If you can name the movie that quote is from, you can even write your own post if you want.

Game 7: Denver Nuggets 113 – Indiana Pacers 106

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

How many of us wrote the Nuggets off at half time of this game?  It looked so much like the Boston game, or the game that we dare not speak of (that I cannot seem to stop mentioning).  Hot shooting team scoring at will combined with a lackadaisical effort on defense.  There were definite flashbacks. 

In this game, I have to give credit to George Karl.  He was certainly not sitting on his hands this game.   

Karl tried a lot of different things on defense hoping to stumble across something that would slow down the Pacers.  To start the game Diawara guarded Tinsley and Martin was on O’Neal.  That did not work because AI could not handle Dunleavy and Camby could not deal with the perimeter game of Murphy. He then brought in Kleiza for Diawara and Klieza was not able to handle the red hot Dunleavy either.  Next, he went to some three quarter court pressure and trapping which was defeated with even more hot shooting.  Finally Karl tried a zone, which was picked apart with nice interior passes and of course, more hot shooting.   

None of these defenses were effective and at the end of the first half the Nuggets were down big yet again. 

In the second half Karl made one last adjustment.  They decided that the issue on defense was not the scheme, it was the lack of focus.  They played straight up the rest of the night.  They did not double O’Neal the few times he received the ball in the post.  They did not try to out think themselves by mixing up the defensive matchups.  They just buckled down and played tough defense.  

That increased effort and determination working hand in hand with the law of averages, which dictated there was no way the Pacers could shoot anywhere nearly as well as they did in the first half, resulted in an impressive comeback by the Nuggets. 

Indiana set a franchise record for points in a quarter with 46, yes, you read that correctly, 46 first quarter points.  They followed that up with 28 points in the second quarter.  After all of that the Nuggets held them to only 32 points in the entire second half. 

Linas Kleiza was great tonight.  He had at least four or five defensive rebounds in the first half.  He hit a couple of timely threes.  His defense was shaky, especially in the first quarter, but he more than made up for it on offense.  The most important thing was that he played hard the entire time he was on the court.   

The offense was still somewhat stagnant, during the comeback.  It was a 180 degree difference than the night before in Washington, but the lack of movement and passing was overcome by some clutch shot making and the increased effort on defense.  

One interesting development was the comeback was actually triggered by Yakhouba Diawara.  He scored eight unanswered points, including two threes, in a minute and a half early in the third quarter.   I have mentioned Kleiza, Najera and Bobby Jones providing a boost from Downtown, but the Nugget leading the team in three point shooting right now is Diawara.  After hitting 3-4 against Indiana, he has made 10-21 on the season with comes out to 47.6%.   

This is the most surprising turn of events for the Nuggets so far this season.  Diawara shot less than 29% from Steve Kerr land last season.  I really cannot fathom how it was even that high.  He was absolutely horrible.  If my kids life depended on it I would rather have had a blind quadriplegic shoot a three pointer than Diawara last season.  Well, maybe the quadriplegic would have to be able to see, but I definitely would not have trusted Diawara. 

If Kuba can somehow keep this up the Nuggets seem to have finally thrown together a quality three point shooting team.  Melo, Kleiza, AI, Kuba, Najera, J.R. Smith and Von Wafer are all solid to good three point shooters.  Atkins has a good career percentage as well.  This is a very good development.   

Other observations from game 7: 

• The Nuggets have done a great job, especially against Washington, in getting defensive deflections resulting in a high number of steals. 
• Steven Hunter who?  So much for Hunter getting some run with Nene out.  Karl has gone with Najera and Martin playing center and Martin, Najera and Kleiza playing power forward.  I cannot complain.  Hunter is a good player, but with the teams they have played, size has not been an issue.  The only player of any girth that the Nuggets have seen was Brendan Haywood and he only played 20 minutes.  Cleveland is up next and Camby will be able to handle Ilgauskas while he is on the floor.
• One thing to take into account is neither Washington nor Indiana double teamed Carmelo until it was too late.  The Nuggets have struggled offensively to score when Melo is strenuously doubled.  Apparently they do not have game tape of the past few Nuggets games in DC and Indy.
• It was also encouraging that the Nuggets were able to put this kind of effort into a second half after playing the night before and on the last day of a road trip. 

I have been hard on the Nuggets, and this little two game winning streak is good, but they still have a long way to go to prove that they are approaching each game with a sense of urgency.

 Update:  Correction, Diawara is not leading the Nuggets in three point percentage.  It is actually Bobby Jones who has shot 5-8 good for 67.5%.  Sorry for the misinformation.  I will do my best to be more careful in the future.

Reconsidering the Celtics Game

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I have spent way too much time on this game.  The Nuggets could have played great and still lost as well as the Celtics played on offense.  Boston is going to make quite a few teams look silly this season.  When I saw Boston play during the preseason from Italy I was surprised at how well they all played together and they are even better now.  It is amazing how quickly a team that is nearly completely reconstituted from last season has developed such a sense of where and when to pass to one another. 

Anyway, here are some final thoughts I have regarding this game and I promise it will be the last article discussing this contest. 

 – Carmelo really did show a higher level of dedication on defense.  (I can hear you all saying, “Well he couldn’t show any less dedication to it could he?”)  He has said that he wants to cover the other team’s best player and he really made a go of it against Paul Pierce.  Melo was chasing Pierce all over the floor, doing his best to fight around screens and being physical with him when he was trying to cut.  The bad news is that Melo still does not have a good sense of where to position himself and he was burned a couple of times because he did not know where the ball was.  It is clear that many of these guys were not taught the finer intricacies of man to man defense in high school or college. 

All in all I was impressed with Anthony’s effort and desire on defense.  Pierce scored a bunch of points, but several of his shots were a result of him just being a top notch offensive player. The next step for Melo is to put forth that effort on defense and still score 30+ on offense.  And yes, that is as difficult to do as it sounds. 

 – Following up on my Sticky Fingers article I compiled the passing numbers in the first quarter of the game to complete my analysis of the first half.  The Nuggets had an even higher percentage of possessions where either no passes or one pass was made before the possession ended in the first quarter than they did in the second.   

There were 27 possessions in the first quarter where the Nuggets were required to run some kind of half court offense.  17 of those 27 possessions they threw either no passes or one pass.  They had six possessions where they threw two passes and two possessions each where they threw three or four passes. Out of the 54 first half possessions where the Nuggets were in their half court offense, they only had three possessions where they passed the ball more than three times.   

Conversely, the Celtics had 43 first half possessions where they were running a half court offense and of those 43 possessions they had nine possessions where they threw four or more passes.  The Celtics scored 17 points on those nine possessions.   

As commenter Disco has pointed out, this is a very small sample size and we probably cannot draw many conclusions from them.  Also, the Celtics played as well as possible on offense.  They scored no matter how few or how many passes they made.   

The bottom line is I do think this is a trend to keep an eye on during the season.  The Nuggets have always played their best when they share the ball and move without the ball.   

 – Kleiza was absolutely abused on defense.  He could not guard Allen or Pierce when he was matched up against them.  When the Nuggets traded for Kleiza the issue was what position was he going to guard?  He is a much improved offensive player from the time he entered the league, but I am still not sure who he can guard.   

 – The Nuggets did not try to run at all.  That is not a good sign. 

 – J.R. Smith made a concerted effort to play smart and under control.  He played the point for a while and tried his darndest to be unselfish.  In the preseason game against Phoenix where Atkins reinjured his groin J.R. played the point and did a great job of being unselfish.  He is trying.  Now if we can just keep him out of night clubs… 

 – I am close to unleashing my analysis of the Nuggets pick and roll game.  I need to watch at least one more game to verify my findings.  How is that for a teaser?  Not something you are going to hear on the nightly news is it?  I promise it will be almost as exciting as folding laundry. 

 – How has Brian Scalabrine gone from being a symbol of all that is wrong with the Celtics to a fan favorite in just three years?   

 – I think it is time for Bobby Jones to see the floor early and often.  Karl talks about how the first 20 games or so are extended training camp and how he is still trying to figure out who to play together (which I find preposterous, but he is the professional) so why has Jones not gotten a chance yet?  He seems to be a very good hybrid of Diawara’s defense and Kleiza’s shooting.  I want to see him start and play 30 minutes for at least a week. 

 – This blog is going to kill me.  It is going to be after two again tonight.  My wife is spending my life insurance payment in her head right now. 

Thanks for reading everyone.

The Sticky Fingers Study

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I was primed to watch the first quarter and contrast the way the Celtics pass the ball and the way the Nuggets pass the ball, but my plans were thwarted by an act of God.   The power went out for about an hour.  This caused me to miss the first quarter of the replay.  I was able to watch the second quarter and it proved my point just fine. 

Here is what I found out. 

Brace yourself now…

The Nuggets have no offense.   

For the purposes of this study I did not count the inbounds pass or outlet pass as they are typically passes that must be made.  During the second quarter the Nuggets had 27 possessions that would not be characterized as fast break possessions and thus would lend themselves to some form of half court execution. 

Of those 27 possessions there were eight where there were zero passes.  There were five possessions where there was one pass.  There were eight more possessions that featured two passes.  There were another five possessions with three passes.  Then there was one possession where the Nuggets actually passed the ball four times, but there was a reason for that. 

Look at those numbers. 

Nearly half, 13 out of 27, of their half court possessions consisted of either no passes or one pass!   They had one possession where there were more than three passes!  On that possession the Celtics extended some pressure and the first two guys to handle the ball were Diawara and Najera.  They had to pass it resulting in two of the four passes. 

Several of the possessions where they had two or three passes it took ten to 15 seconds before the second or third pass was made.  Overall for the quarter the Nuggets averaged 1.48 passes per possession.   

Think about that. 

How difficult is it to defend knowing that the offense is only going to make one or two passes? 

I had a fancy little table all ready to paste in here, but apparently I can only insert images if they have a URL.  I could do the HTML thing and program in a table, but it is far to late for that.  Just picture a little talbe here that shows the Nuggets do not pass and that is bad. 

  I really wanted to observe the first quarter for Boston.  They shared the ball beautifully and did a great job of reversing the ball and moving without the ball.  I had to settle for watching the second quarter because of the massive Rocky Mountain power failure that robbed me of an hour of productivity.  I do have the Tivo set to record the re-replay tomorrow. 

Anyway, the Celtics were only a little better than the Nuggets in the second quarter, but part of the reason was that they were red hot.  They had 18 half court possessions which were not interrupted prematurely by a foul.  They had four possessions where there were at least four passes.  Guess what?  They scored on all four of those possessions including a seven pass possession to open the quarter. 

Ppenetration is a very effective weapon in basketball, but the pass is even better and the Celtics are proving that.  When a player drives, one or perhaps two defenders have to adjust, but when the ball is passed, every defensive player has to adjust their positioning.  When an offense mixes passing with motion a great deal of pressure is placed on the defense.  

Hopefully, at some point the Nuggets will figure that out. 

As far as the actual game, this was as embarrassing a loss as I can remember for the Nuggets.  The road trip is off to a horrible start as is their season.  For a team that is expected to be a contender in the West and almost a sure thing to reach the finals in the hypothetical world that placed them in the East the first five games of the season have been a disaster. 

However, all is not lost.  The Nuggets have a very good chance to win the last two games of the trip.  They play at Indianapolis Pacers, who were easily handled at home by the Clippers tonight, and the Washington Wizards who are struggling to start the season.  Gilbert Arenas is still dealing with his knee that underwent surgery at the end of last season and has yet to figure out how to turn on the Hibachi. 

Unfortunately, it matters very little who they play if they are going to constantly hang onto the ball and pound it into the hardwood when they are on offense.  This sticky fingers disease can be deadly. 

Here is hoping the Nuggets can find a cure.

Game 5: Denver Nuggets 93 – Boston Celtics 119

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The Celtics were amazing on both offense and defense.  I am going to watch the replay tonight and analyze the major difference on offense between the two teams, one team passed the ball one dribbled it. 

I also have a hunch about a problem the Nuggets have with setting picks, but I want to double check my theory before I share it with the world.

Check back later on tonight or tomorrow for the results.

Game 4: Denver Nuggets 112 – New York Knicks 119

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I was ready to denounce the Nuggets’ lack of heart in a brief and biting post following the loss to the Knicks, but I have decided to rewatch the fourth quarter before handing out such harsh criticism.   

Here are the facts of the game.  The Nuggets were outscored by 17 points in the fourth quarter.  They were outrebounded by nine.  The Knicks missed 43 shots and ended up with 17 offensive rebounds.  That is a 38% rate. The Knicks shot 13 of 24 in the fourth quarter which is good not great.  They also missed six free throws.  Of those 17 shots where there was a chance for a rebound the Knicks corralled 10 of those rebounds.  Ten out of 17! 

Most of that time Camby and Nene were on the floor together until Nene fouled out with just over two minutes left.  As noted after game three, Nene is looking to be in better shape than he was just a week ago, but he was still worn out by the end of the game.  With no Kenyon Martin my number one question of the game is where was Steven Hunter?  He would have been fresh and would have helped out on the glass in the pivotal fourth quarter.   

After watching the replay, I am a little less frustrated, but maybe it is because I knew what was going to happen.  It was a one point game with under two minutes left.  However, this was a very disappointing result.   

You can talk all you want about how it is impossible to draw conclusions after three or four games, but when you have a trend over the past three seasons and you see the beginning of that trend in the fourth season, that is a good sign that the trend will continue. 

The Nuggets talk of winning 60 or even 55 games is starting to look hollow to me.  Can this team still win 50 games?  Sure.  Can they get home court advantage in the playoffs?  I will answer that question with another question.  How many wins will it take to finish in front of the Spurs, Suns, Mavs or Rockets?  Can they reach that total by losing games at home to New Orleans and against the Knicks?  If the Nuggets do not finish ahead of at least one of those teams, and add Utah to that mix as well, they are going on the road for the first round once again. 

Games like tonight are nearly must wins for the Nuggets to reach their stated goals. 

Other Observations from Game 4:

• Iverson finally had a breakout game.  He shot 13-22 and was the lone bright spot for the Nuggets offensively.   
• Melo was hounded by Renaldo Balkman and faced numerous double teams.  He had his second straight poor shooting game misfiring on 13 of his 20 shots.    
• Is Renaldo Balkman somehow related to the “Shoe Bomber” Richard Reid? 
• The Nuggets are not running.  AI is partly to blame as he jogs the ball up most of the time.  He played that way for over ten years in Philly so it is very difficult for him to transition to a fast paced transition offense.   
• The three point shooting watch continues.  The Nuggets were a respectable 6-16.  J.R. Smith hit a couple before missing two very difficult attempts towards the end of the game.  Melo only took one and missed.  AI only took two and made one.  Kleiza was 2-6 but two of his misses were right online, just a tad too long, which is good.  Najera banked his only try in, but utilized a shot fake from the perimeter to get past his man.     

The Nuggets head into Boston tomorrow and Boston has looked very good to start the season.  The Nuggets will have their work cut out for them, but if they can win tomorrow night in Boston, tonight’s game will not sting so badly.  But if they do go on to lose in Boston, the games in Washington, who will be desperate for a win, and Indy, who has been very impressive, will be crucial. Next Game:  Wednesday @ Boston Celtics – Anyone who discounts this team as a contender because of a lack of depth has not watched them play

Game 2: Denver Nuggets 99 – Minnesota Timberwolves 91

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With two games down, we have seen two games where the Nuggets allowed an inferior team to hang around and hang around before putting the hammer down in the fourth quarter.  The Nuggets have started the season 2-0 for the first time since 1987. 

On one hand it is commendable that they have been able to take care of business when it matters to close out these games.  If they can indeed do that it will be an improvement over last year where they consistently lost games like these two.    

On the other hand, I was really hoping to see a new attitude in games like these this season.  The Nuggets could have dropped the hammer right off the bat.  They did take a good flurry from the Timberwolves who are a young team and came out with a lot of emotion to start the game.  The Nuggets found themselves down 20-6 early on, but as much credit should go to the Nuggets’ horrendous defense as to the Wolves execution. 

It is better to surge late than early as the Nuggets proved tonight, but we have yet to see this team play with focused effort for more than a couple of quarters each game.  They have gotten away with this so far, but if they cannot play more complete games it will come back to haunt them in their quest to earn home court advantage in the playoffs. 

Game Observations

• The three point barrage from game one was not seriously lacking tonight as the Nuggets shot 3-14.  Not good.  Kleiza was 0-3 and Najera did not shoot a three.  AI shot poorly from three again tonight until he hit one with just over thirty seconds left to seal the game. 
• Melo continued to shoot well from behind the arc until taking two bad threes in the second half.  He was 2-3 before missing his last two.  When he can catch and shoot in rhythm (I can never spell rhythm without using spell check) he has become a deadly three point shooter.  He hit a nice turn around jumper from about 17 feet with a hand in his face.  The three point shot and the turn around jumper in the post are the two offensive moves that I have believed Melo needed to master in order to go from a force to an absolutely unstoppable dominating performer. 
• Melo did have six turnovers, but part of that was due to the officials allowing Minnesota to hack away at him on several occasions.
• Speaking of the officials, from my point of view, and I do all I can to remain objective, they have been relatively consistent over the first two games.  There were only a couple of questionable calls so far.  Hopefully that trend will continue when the Nuggets start taking on the Spurs and Suns.
• Camby was incredible as he completely controlled the paint in the second half.  He ended up nabbing 21 rebounds and on several occasions he was able to deflect caroms to teammates.  He also passed the ball well and even hit the jumper from the top of the circle as the shot clock was running down.  He has a reputation for hitting that shot, but he really did not shoot very well from there last season and missed it a couple of times in game 1.

 The Nuggets are heading for their first early tests as they play 2-0 New Orleans at home on Sunday before heading on a five game eastern road trip which includes games at Boston and 2-0 Indiana.

Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

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There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

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 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

– How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

– The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

– The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

– Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

– The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

– Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

– All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

– Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Rumors and Projections That Make no Sense

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First the KG trade rumors.  It is obvious that the Wolves are working to trade KG before the draft in order to land some picks.  That makes sense.  His value will drop after the draft and bottom out at the trade deadline.  They need to make a deal now.

What makes no sense, if the Stoudemire to Atlanta or Charlotte rumors are true (and that is a big if), and Phoenix is willing to trade Amare, why on earth would Minnesota not take him?  I know cap space and draft picks offer the siren song of the unknown and create excitement, but Amare is an absolute stud who can score at will.  He was rusty for the first month or so of last season and went on a tear after that.  I realize that Minnesota will not have cap space in the future, but if they just nab Amare, they get a top flight player for KG.  What good will cap space do them?  What major free agent will ever want to sign there knowing that they have failed to build around their star player for all of these years?  Minnesota will not get anything better than Amare when they finally trade KG.  They should just do a deal straight up with Phoenix right now.

Why would Milwaukee be interested in Mike Conley?  They have a point guard that they can easily keep as long as they pony up the cash.  Their team will not get better if they draft a PG just to let the one they have go.  Sure they will probably have to pay a little more than Mo Williams is worth to keep him, but the whole goal is to build a team, not replace one player with another.  If they can waive goodbye to Williams and then sign a top free agent with what they save then fine, but who do they think they can sign that will help?  It is doubtful that Conley will even be available to them at #6, but it still bugs me that they were ever considering Conley.

If Joakim Noah is such a great team guy, why is he telling Milwaukee and Minnesota not to draft him?  If he was such a team oriented player, why not go with whoever drafts you and work hard to make that team better?  Steve Francis pulls this with Vancouver and he is an ungrateful jerk.  Noah does it and he is still a media darling.  What’s the difference?

Why doesn’t David Stern just appoint someone to run the Hawks until this ownership issue is resolved?  Having a team that is both such an important position in the draft and being ripe to help implement a major trade mired in conflict is screwing everything up.  If they could have landed Stoudemire, but one owner would not allow it out of spite for the other owners someone should have stepped in and forced things through.  How good would the Hawks be with Amare?  Shelden Williams does not look so bad at the four with Amare on one side and Josh Smith on the other.  Throw in Joe Johnson and that deep bench and you have a very dangerous team.  Now on the other hand, add in Al Horford or Yi Jianlian and Acie Law and what do you have?  Another lottery appearance, that’s what.

What is keeping Boston and Indiana from making deals?  Boston needs to show some progress and Indiana needs to start over.  They are both active in trade discussions, but like I said earlier, player values spike around the draft, unless they have an expiring contract, then their value spikes at the trade deadline.  Neither team is working with a large expiring contract so get something done already.  What does Boston do that will improve them at #5?  Nothing.  Sure they can land another solid prospect, but that is it.  Maybe if they take Jeff Green or Corey Brewer they have a player who will help from day one, but will they be in the playoffs this season?  Next season?  Five years from now?  No one knows.  This team is going nowhere without a trade.  Indiana needs to get rid of Jermaine O’Neal.  It sounds like they are trying, but they need to do something sooner rather than later.

I am hoping that we get some major trades going tonight, but I would not count on it.  At least there is enough suspense surrounding where all the top players will end up since it really is a crap shoot from pick three through 12 or so. 

Let Them Play!

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There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!

Does the Lottery Need to be Fixed?

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Everyone is concerned with fixing the lottery and stopping tanking.  The point has been made that tanking has never proven to be an effective strategy.  Experience has shown that the likelihood of receiving the top pick is not greatly increased by finishing a couple of spots lower in the standings.  Case in point, which two teams tanked the most this season?  Boston and Milwaukee.  Where are they drafting?  Fifth and sixth. 

With the three worst teams by record missing out on the first three picks everyone is going to want to change the system.  Most people want to increase the chances of the worst teams winning the top pick.  Between the Grizzlies, Celtics and Bucks they had a combined probability of over 60% that one of them would end up with the first pick.  How much more likely does it need to be?  Also, the other eleven teams have to have some chance of winning or else it is not a lottery.

I have two ideas to change the lottery.  One idea is to eliminate some of the better teams from the lottery by only allowing the teams with the ten worst records.  If teams are still fighting for a playoff spot, they will probably not be thinking about losing games and sacrificing their playoff chances to get into the lottery.  Of course, teams will still want a chance at getting in the lottery and there will still be tanking by the teams that are on the fringe of getting in the lottery or getting left out, but it will not be a month long process. 

Using this year as an example, New Orleans and Los Angeles were in the playoff hunt until the last day or two of the season, and Indiana and Philadelphia were still in the hunt in the last week as well.  We could assume that every season there will be a couple of teams in each conference that will still be fighting for a playoff spot who end up on the outside looking in.  By making the lottery open to only ten teams the probability of a bad team winning increases.  We also do not have to worry about a borderline playoff team ending up with the number one pick, which is why the league went to the weighted system in the first place.  Lets just take the teams that no one wants to see win out of the equation altogether.

My second idea is to draw for the top two picks instead of the top three.  That way the team with the worst record is guaranteed at least a top three pick and the built in disincentive to tank that the lottery is supposed to provide remains intact.  With this idea the worst case scenario of picking third is better than the current worst case scenario of picking fourth. 

Ultimately, does the lottery really need to be changed?  It drew more attention this year because there were two franchise players to be had and everyone wanted a top two pick.  Some seasons there are two or three franchise players, some seasons there are none.  In the end, the lottery did its job and the teams that tried the most to end up with the top pick were left wondering how they ended up picking outside the top two. 

We will never be able to completely eliminate tanking unless the weighting teams chances based on record is eliminated and none of us want that.  Human nature will probably keep telling teams that even if it is not very likely for them to end up with the top pick, their chance are increased by losing games so they are selling themselves short if they do not do all they can to finish with as many ping pong balls as possible.

We just have to hope the lottery keeps doing its job and fate punishes the teams that do what they can to lose games down the stretch instead of win.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.