Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

Fire (Up) Karl

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

George Karl is a lightning rod for Nuggets fans.  Some are calling for him to be fired.  Some think he needs to become a little more active and others still believe he is a good coach who can take the Nuggets beyond the first round in the playoffs. 

I certainly do not believe he should be fired at this point in his tenure.  Even if he is dismissed who could the Nuggets bring in who has enough cache to get the players’ attention?  Larry Brown?  After the way he mailed in the Knicks job I think I will pass.   

The realistic question becomes how can George Karl improve as the coach of the Nuggets?  At this point in the season I think there are a handful of ways where he can make the team better by making himself better. 

First of all, there is some concern, at least on my part, that he does not command enough respect from his players.  I have mentioned before how there are times where after a timeout Julie Browman will report that George said they need to do this or that and when the game begins you do not see even a remote trace of what Julie said George asked them to do.  Either Julie is a horrible reporter, or the players do not take everything George says to heart. 

Think back to when George first arrived in Denver.  He was replacing a coach with absolutely no track record of NBA success in Jeff Bzdelik.  He was the successful veteran coach who could make young spoiled players not only listen to what he said, but believe he was right.  That team played hard and smart.  They ran on offense and played hard on defense.  Consequently they went on one of the great runs of all time the second half of the season.   

By the end of the 2004-2005 season the Nuggets were playing great basketball and we all knew it was thanks to Coach Karl.  When he took the court before the beginning of every home game George Karl would receive a rousing standing ovation.  He probably would not have received a better reception had he personally handed each fan in attendance a $1,000 although that may be because most of the fans would have run out of the arena to spend the $1,000 on crack and prostitutes.  He had a team that was a nice mix of veterans and unproven youngsters playing at a high level.   

How did he do it?  If a player did not do what he wanted, it was guaranteed that that player’s posterior would end up on the bench next to George.  Even young star Carmelo Anthony found himself watching important possessions from the cushy fold out chairs found courtside.  Karl showed that no one was immune from losing playing time if they did not play hard and play smart.   

You want proof?  Look at Melo’s shooting percentage pre George Karl and post George Karl.  2003-2004 Melo shot 42.6%.  2004-2005 Melo shot 43.1%.  Karl rolled into town halfway though 2004-2005.  Then in 2005-2006 Melo shot 48.1%.  Last year he shot 47.6%, but this season he is down to 44.9%.  Why the jump after Karl took over?  He would sit Melo down for taking bad shots.  Maybe Melo has forgotten that lesson as his shooting percentage has dropped off significantly this season.     

George needs to recapture that discipline.  I think this team has a nice mix of veterans and youngsters just like the 2004-2005 team did.  When guys stop running they should get to watch from the sideline.  When someone gets a little jump shot happy show them that it is not acceptable by having them take a seat.  If the defense is a little lax, send in a player who is not afraid to get down and dirty.   

Right now there is not one of the primary players who are in danger of being yanked out of the game if they are not playing hard and/or playing smart.  If players are not afraid of losing out on playing time, they have no reason to make a little extra effort and do what the coach wants them to do.  Karl talks about how players get too wrapped up in debating with the refs or they stop running or they take bad shots, but if all he is going to do is tell them to stop it, that is not enough.   

Another area I would like to see Karl make a change is his style of defense.  When he was with Seattle he was known as a coach who would use pressure and traps to get a team off kilter and produce turnovers.  This Nugget team is actually statistically better at forcing turnovers than those SuperSonics teams were.  The Nuggets average almost two steals a game more than Karl’s best Sonics team did (thanks to basketballreference.com for the old stats).   

I realize when you have a short bench you cannot afford to play that style of defense, but now that everyone of consequence other than Nene is back, yes I know Chucky Atkins is still out, they have the manpower to play just such a trapping havoc creating style.  Players like AI, Melo, Kenyon Martin and Camby all have good instincts and could be great in just such a system.  Add in Kuba Diawara, Bobby Jones, Anthony Carter and J.R. Smith and they have tremendous athleticism on the bench to help out. 

Perhaps Karl does not think that type of defense will work anymore or maybe he thinks it would be a waste of energy.  I do know that Karl has had success with that type of defensive scheme before and they also have Mike Dunlap on the staff.  Anyone who watched Dunlap’s teams at Metro State, a Division II school in Denver, knows they had ingenious blitzing scheme that completely rattled their opponents.  Dunlap used that style to win two championships and get to a title game on a third occasion.  Dunlap was a hot coaching name and it was my understanding that the Nuggets brought him on board to have him help institute some of his revolutionary ideas.  So far, I have not seen anything similar to what he did at Metro State utilized by the Nuggets. 

From my point of view Karl has both the personnel and the brain trust to play some trapping high pressure defense.  As I said, he may have some good reason for not doing so, but I would like to see them try it.  If anyone out there has heard or read anything about this and I have missed it, please leave a comment.   

Lastly, Karl has made some “interesting” decisions involving game management.  The Nugg Doctor has made a case on more than one occasion that Karl has called timeouts too late when the opposition has made a run.  I will not attempt to steal his thunder and will let you read for yourself should you so choose.  Perhaps Karl has joined the Big Chief Triangle Appreciation Society and gone the way of Phil Jackson who prefers to allow his teams to try to figure out what they need to do to stop a run instead of calling a timeout.  I can appreciate that sentiment, but momentum can be like quick sand.  The more you struggle against it the worse things get.  Sometimes all you can do to break free is to stop the game altogether.  

We have also talked about his lack of fire during games before and again, I am not going to get into it again here.  Karl also makes some strange lineup decisions such as leaving Bobby Jones and Kuba on the bench after they played such a big role in the six game winning streak earlier this season.   

No matter what you think about George Karl he is going to be the Nuggets coach for at least the remainder of this season and probably next season as well.  He has had as much success as any Nuggets coach in his NBA career.  Hopefully he can recapture some of that fire that triggered the Nuggets to great heights in 2004-2005 and lead them beyond the first round for the first time in what will be 14 years by the time the playoffs roll around. 

I am afraid if he does not, it will be more of the same from our Punxsutawney Nuggets.

An Open Letter to More Optimistic Nuggets Fans Than Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Disco left a comment after my post for the Miami game.  He brings up some good points and I wanted to make sure that everyone saw it because it displays a more optimistic side of things for the Nuggets and may very well prove to be accurate when contrasted to my more pessimistic view of what may transpire for the rest of the season.  It is definitely a good conversation starter and I think we could have some good discussion regarding these issues.   

Here is Disco’s comment:

Assuming GK/AI/Melo/Camby are ok with losing anything is silly. These are some of the most competitive guys in the NBA we are talking about. Most people assume Karl is fine with losing because he made this comment… but what would you have him do? Call out Melo/AI in the press? Right…thats gonna make the team better. I think you have greatly misjudged the psychological makeup of this team. This team thinks they can beat any team on any night…which is why they get lazy. They do not think its ‘OK to lose this one’.

In addition, its silly to extrapolate a season worth of games from the first month ESPECIALLY with this team. I think we all agree this team has not hit its stride yet.

These are all good points, but I tend to disagree with what he said so here is an open letter to optimistic Nuggets fans everywhere addressing the comment left by Disco: 

I can see and appreciate where you are coming from.  It is possible that I am being too hard on the Nuggets, or further still, completely wrong.  But it is obvious to me that this team is not making the obvious changes that are necessary to succeed consistently on the court.  That is a mental issue that this team has.  You are right that they are not in the locker room before a game saying to one another, “We can afford to lose tonight.”  It is a more subtle subconscious process that is allowed to fester by Karl himself using the excuse of injuries or Camby using the excuse of playing five back to back sets of games to rationalize poor performances.   

I wrote that I did not want to hear one player or coach use injuries, or anything else, as an excuse for why they lose because it fosters that defeatist mindset.  As soon as someone allows themselves to think that they lost because of injuries, it becomes an acceptable reason for the team as a whole to underperform.  The Nuggets, specifically Karl, let that happen. 

As far as their competitiveness, I agree that Camby and especially Iverson are competitive.  Melo is competitive, but he is no where near the level of Iverson.  I actually think Melo is a frontrunner where he is great when they are scoring a lot of points and things are going his way, but when things start to go bad, he gets frustrated and if that frustration festers for too long he becomes a detriment to the team.  His shot selection becomes atrocious and he starts pouting.   

Karl is much more difficult to read.  I know he was a very passionate player and coach when he was younger, but we do not see that much anymore.  I wrote a couple of days ago that he is clearly trying not to grate on his players as he used to.  He definitely makes a point of not calling his guys out in the papers, but none of us have any idea what he says to them behind closed doors.  He may be doing all he can, but I do not get the sense from him that every loss just eats him up inside.   

Ultimately with this team the problem is not having enough competitors who do not want to lose, but how that competitiveness manifests itself when the other team makes a run and how they react when they are not playing well.  I think Iverson is by far the most competitive player on the team.  I believe every loss hurts him and more than anything he wants to win a championship.  He gives it his all every night and will never stop fighting, but he is only one guy. 

I have also seen a downside of that super competitive nature that Iverson possesses in how it impacts the way he plays.  We all know that this team is at its best when they are playing some semblance of defense, running the floor and moving without the ball on offense.  When Iverson senses things are going bad and that hatred of losing boils to the surface, he becomes even more of a one on one player.  Ultimately, he relies on himself to carry the team out of it and usually that only exacerbates the issues on offense.   

When a game starts slipping away I want to see AI, Camby and Melo call everyone together and get on the same page.  Demand that everyone shares the ball and moves on offense.  Demand that they all start gritting it out on defense.  Remember together that they play their best when they play as a team and not as individuals.    

Instead, when things start to go bad we see Melo jacking up more and more contested jumpers and AI over dribbling.  The result of which is things seem to go downhill even more quickly.  At this point that attitude I wrote about comes in where the excuses they use to dismiss poor play impact their acceptance of what is happening on the court.  Again, I am not saying it is a purposeful decision, but a reason to let the flood of momentum overwhelm them.  Their effort becomes hollow.   

The best example of this was the game against the Clippers in Los Angeles.  On several occasions they were only down four in the second half, but they never gave me the slightest inkling of belief that they would get any closer.  After the game I wrote that it was the most insurmountable small third quarter lead I had ever seen.   

That game happened to be the second half of a back to back and they were playing without Nene, Chucky Atkins, Anthony Carter and Steven Hunter.  To top it off Linas Kleiza was injured in the second half as well.  Mentally they completely mailed in the second half.  It was pathetic.  Is it a coincidence that those excuses they site so readily were present in that game?  I do not think so.  Somewhere in their minds they decided that with all the obstacles they were facing that game was one that they could let go of.   

Instead of pulling together and fighting back when things get tight, they let a 17 point lead against the Lakers turn into a 28 point blowout, a nine point lead against an undermanned Clipper team turn into an inexplicable 11 point loss.  They have had one game all year where things were not going their way and yet they fought back to win against a decent team and that was the game in Indiana where we know Karl gave them a good thrashing at halftime.  They have come back to win games against Seattle and twice against Minnesota, but those were against the two worst teams in the league.  I do not think that is much to get excited about, but to be fair it does merit mentioning. 

Based on what I have seen, I have to question this team’s mindset and attitude heading into games.  I have to wonder why they allow themselves to play four horrible games in a row without showing the slightest interest in changing the things that they know they need to do better in order to win.  The very fact that they make excuses about injuries and schedules when those things do not prevent them from moving without the ball or taking good shots or rallying their teammates to change how they are playing shows where there mind is.  How else can you explain what we have seen the first month of the season?  This is a veteran team that should not have to keep learning the same lessons over and over again. 

You bring up another good point that has bugged me for the past three years.  They have a very arrogant attitude about themselves.  They do get lazy against poor teams and they lose important games because of it.  I do not believe the reason is because they know that they can beat anyone at anytime.  I believe it is because they think they are good enough to just show up and win.  That is a ridiculous attitude to have for a team that has not accomplished anything together. 

Concerning the projected record I put together, I was merely working with what they have done this season and their performance in previous seasons to develop what kind of pace they were on.  I am not saying it is etched in stone that they will be 50-32.  I think I used sound arguments for how I came up with that number.  Can they win 55 games?  Sure, but it seems unlikely.  Have they hit their stride yet?  You are correct in saying they have not.  One of the points I have tried to drive home though is that the schedule gets much more difficult.  Look at what they have in store for them in March.  They will have to play much better than they have to this point just to win seven or eight games that month. 

I do have very strong reservations about this team.  I may be wrong and I may be misreading their mindset, but I do not know how else to interpret the indifference, inconsistency and lack of urgency I see from them.  I hope I am wrong and they can begin playing consistently great basketball.  They definitely have the ability to do so.   

It really makes me worry that they know they need home court advantage and a favorable playoff matchup to have a good chance to advance in the playoffs, but their play has not reflected that belief.  November was a month to prove that they were a team to be taken seriously and get a lead on many of their competitors and they failed to do that.   

I would like to thank Disco for posting his comment as well as all of you who take the time to share you thoughts.  I truly appreciate all of you who chose to read this blog.   

I think this can be a good starting point for more discussion so please leave your thoughts below.  Am I completely wrong?  Do we need to give the Nuggets more time?  I am looking forward to what everyone thinks about the state of the Nuggets at this point in the season. 

Statistical Anomaly

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Take a look at this:

First of all, it is nice to see the Nuggets in their rightful place at the top of the Northwest Division standings.   

However, look at the bottom and check out the winning percentages for Minnesota and Seattle.  Notice who is in last place. 

At first I thought it was a typo as Seattle has a higher winning percentage, but is behind Minnesota in the standings.  But if you calculate the games back totals (the difference in wins plus the difference in losses divided by two) they are correct.  Because of that, the team with the second lowest winning percentage is actually in last place.   

I do not ever remember seeing that before so I figured I had to share and this is short enough that I do not think I wasted too much of anyone’s time.

Oh, and thanks to ESPN.com for the standings.

Game 1: Denver Nuggets 120 – Seattle Supersonics 103

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What was looking to be a relatively disappointing season opener for the Denver Nuggets suddenly exploded into an example of the type of play that the Nuggets will have to sustain throughout the regular season and playoffs for the season to meet the lofty expectations that have been placed on them. 

The Achilles heel for this team over the previous four seasons has been three point shooting.  Well, three point shooting was actually a strength of the Nuggets tonight as their superlative shot making from behind the arc actually blew the game open in the fourth quarter.   

The Nuggets hit 11 threes in 27 attempts even though they missed their last four attempts after the game had been decided.  During the 42 minutes or so the outcome of the game was in doubt, they were 11 for 23.   

I tabbed Linas Kleiza as the player that the Nuggets needed to become the Robert Horry type unheralded role player who could make the big play, or big shot, when the Nuggets needed it.   

Tonight was a great step in that direction.  Linas hit five of his first seven threes including three straight in the fourth quarter to help seal the outcome.  The first Kleiza three of the quarter made it a two possession game as it put the Nuggets up six with just under 11 minutes left in the game.  His next one put the Nuggets up double digits with seven and a half minutes left.  The third put the game away less than a minute later.   

Eduardo Najera made 2 of 3 three pointers he attempted as well.  Before the 06-07 season Najera was hitting threes in practice, but he was never able to bring that part of his game to the court during the regular season.  He has continued to work on it and now has the green light to shoot threes.  If he can keep his confidence up, he should be effective throughout the season. 

Melo was also able to hit his threes.  I mentioned that he had shown a greatly improved shot from downtown at the end of last season.  Tonight he showed that it may not have been a fluke.  Melo hit three of his first four threes before missing his last two.  When Melo sets himself and does not rush it or force the shot, he is very consistent from deep.  His last two misses were somewhat forced and were basically heat checks.  If he can avoid those types of rushed threes, I believe he can be a 40% three point shooter for the season.  However, he has such a scoring mindset, I do not think he can keep from taking those heat check threes after he makes a couple. 

Other thoughts on game one of the 07-08 season:

• AI was very good except for a stretch in the middle of the third quarter where he forced his shot a little too much going 0-4 with two turnovers.  He was very good at attacking the basket and scoring as well as kicking out to open shooters.  I doubt the Nuggets will lose many games where AI has double digit assists.  In fact, the Nuggets are now 12-1 when he does so.
• The defensive focus is still not there.  I do not understand why NBA players cannot understand the basic principle of see man and see ball at the same time.  It is not that difficult to get in position to see what the man with the ball is doing and also know if your man is cutting to the basket at the same time.  On a couple of occasions Seattle players were able to sneak into the paint for an easy layup with no Nugget defender having any idea what was happening.  This is the type of defensive lapse that good teams do not have.
• Nene is absolutely out of shape.  There were rumors going around that Nene was in the same great shape that he was in to close out last year.  I was somewhat skeptical of that since he has been hampered by a calf strain since the Tournament of the Americas, but since the media reported it, I believed it.  I should know better. 
• K-Mart is back, but he is not the old K-Mart.  He played very well in limited minutes, but he does not have the same explosive lift he used to.  Of course, there is no way that he should after two microfracture surgeries.  He still is a tremendous leaper, but not quite at the level he used to be.  He has proven in the preseason and tonight that he can still be very effective and he has still maintained enough of his athleticism that he does not need to alter his game.
• Nuggets fans will have to get used to seeing runs made by both the Nuggets and their opponents.  On at least two occasions the Nuggets were able to take a ten point lead only to see the Sonics charge back and reclaim the lead.  Because of the pace the Nuggets play at they can make spurts, but they are also susceptible to giving up spurts.  The Suns have the same problem.
• Durant played at the level that most everyone expected.  He is still struggling to adjust to the NBA game, but he showed that he can score in a variety of ways.  He is settling for his jumper too often, but as we have seen with Melo, it is so easy for these guys to take a relatively open 20 footer that it takes time for them to learn to pass on that shot and drive or keep the ball moving.  Durant is absolutely going to be amazing.  I expect him to post numbers very similar to what Carmelo did his rookie year with his points per game average surging as the season goes on.

 Congratulations to the Nuggets on a win to open the regular season that will hopefully kick start them on their way to that 14-3 start I am hoping for. 

Worthless fact:
The Nuggets have made 11 three pointers in their past two regular season games dating back to the last game of the 06-07 season in San Antonio. 

Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Chucky Atkins?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I am not enthused about the potential Chucky Atkins signing.  He did have a nice statistical season last year at Memphis, but it is clearly a fluke season.  His Player Efficiency Rating spiked last season at 17.45.  His second best PER season was 13.44.  He is more of a scoring point guard than Steve Blake, but another scorer is not what this team needs.  Atkins is being touted as a better three point shooter than Blake, but each of them sport a career three point shooting average of 37.0%.  Blake is six years younger and entering his prime and Atkins will be 33 starting the season.   

I realize that Blake may be too expensive for the Nuggets, but we do not know that for sure yet.  If Mo Williams ends up signing with Miami instead of Milwaukee the Blake market will dry up.  The Nuggets may be able to get him to agree to a deal at about the same salary as what they will be paying Atkins.   

Blake is the superior point guard and the better fit for the Nuggets. If he signs somewhere for the full midlevel exception then so be it, but the Nuggets should not settle for less until they know they have to. 

Other Developments 

• I was shocked that after holding his rights for so long the Spurs dealt Luis Scola away as part of a salary dump.  The fact that he never had a reasonable buy out was a contributing factor, but to use the rights to a player of his ability to get another team to swallow a player with less than three million dollars in salary (Jackie Butler) was surprising to me. 
• The Nuggets summer league team had a very nice showing against Detroit last night.  Von Wafer had a very nice game scoring 25 points including 11 in the first quarter.  Will Blalock had another nice performance.  He was very efficient scoring 16 points on eight shots, although he was only 5-9 from the free throw line, and he did not turn the ball over.  Jelani McCoy had another double-double and Curtis Sumpter provided more energy and heady play.  If Blalock, McCoy and Sumpter are not in camp this fall, I will be shocked.
• The Rocky Mountain Review kicks off today and rookie prospects such as Al Horford, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Morris Almond will be on display. 

Update:

It is official.  The Nuggets signed Chucky Atkins for $3.2 million in 07-08 and $3.4 million in 08-09.  Steve Blake has agreed to sign with the Trailblazers, but the terms have not been disclosed.  If he signed for $4.0 million or so the Nuggets will have made a big mistake to save about $1.5 million next season.  Giving up Blake for Atkins makes no sense from a basketball perspective. 

Accute Summer League Obsservations

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

• Marco Belinelli has been the most enjoyable player to watch. He is a complete chucker, but has been dialed in enough to make a great first impression.  He is one of those players who seems to be a better shooter when turning around with a hand in his face than spotting up wide open.  Of course, so far he has made plenty of shots both open and well defended.  He is also a tremendous passer always hitting his teammates in stride no matter how small of a window he has to squeeze the pass through.
• Golden State has the most entertaining team as a whole.  Along side of Belinelli they have Pierre Pierce, who was kicked off the team at Iowa a couple of seasons ago and Kelenna Azubuike from Kentucky who played with them sparingly last season.  These three have pushed the pace and set each other up beautifully.  They all have been making the right decision every time down the court.
• Jose Juan Berea has had a marvelous start to his summer.  The mighty mite has done a great job of running the offense while scoring points when he has to.  He would be a great change of pace point guard for Dallas to bring off the bench next season.  Devin Harris can play fast, but not like Berea and he is nowhere near the shooter Berea is.
• The next time that either Johan Petro or Mouhamed Sene pass out of the post will be the first.  These guys have been complete black holes.  I am sure the coaches want them to work on their post up game, but they should not ignore working on passing out of the post since that is what both of them will be doing most of the time in the NBA.
• Kevin Durant has absolutely been a disappointment. Everyone will say that it is just summer league, but a player with his abilities should not be shooting 25%.  He has two more games to turn it around.  The fact that he has not recorded an assist after the attention he gets from defenses is absurd.  On the bright side, he has done a good job of drawing fouls even though many of them are non shooting fouls and some of his statistical ineptitude can be attributed to whoever the official scorer is.  Against the Knicks he blocked a couple of shots in the first half that he did not get credit for, stole a pass that he did not get credit for and he definitely had more than one rebound.
• Yi Jianlian has been decent.  Like Durant he has not really gotten in a groove yet. The talent is there.  His offensive game is already relatively polished.  He has good footwork and it is difficult to not be impressed when you see his spin move in the post and his step back jumper on the perimeter.  He will be a very good inside out offensive player.  Like Durant, he draws a lot of non shooting fouls because he posts up so aggressively.
• Somehow Marcus Banks scored 42 points and made four out of five three pointers in the Suns first game.  He must have thought he was back in college at UNLV.  I watched the archived broadcast of the Phoenix/Cleveland game (just to see how on earth Banks scored 42 points) and the announcer must have been Marcus Banks’ old roommate from UNLV.  Whenever someone scored he said the player’s first name and then yelled their last name while increasing the volume and pitch.  Every time someone scored it was the same.  There was one instance where he did something different.  Marcus Banks made a common everyday one handed break away dunk and he suddenly yells, “Slam Dunk!” followed by the standard, “Marcus BANKS!”  I wondered if he would get that excited about every dunk and on the next possession Dwayne Jones dunked for Cleveland and we once again treated with the standard first and last name.  How disappointing that must have been for Dwayne.  There may have been more than 20 people watching this game from the stands if they just had silence instead of the announcer doing his shtick.  It got old fast.
• Louis Williams has been a scoring machine.  He has been able to get to the basket at will and his jumper looks to be much improved.  He plays a similar style to Iverson which makes it doubtful his success will translate with the parent club as he will not be able to dominate the ball.  He will be able to score though if he is given the chance and his constant parade to the free throw line shows that he is being aggressive attacking the basket and not just settling for jumpers.
• Former Nugget fan favorite Ryan Bowen is on the Timberwolves summer league team.  It still makes me mad that Nugget fans were so attached to him.  I appreciated his hustle as much as anyone, but for people to have said if they traded him they would stop watching the Nuggets was a joke.  He is a 10^th man at best on a shallow roster.  Enjoy his hustle, but do not make him a folk hero.  Of course these comments are about five years to late, but I did not have a blog back then.
• The Nuggets are getting very good performances from Will Blalock, Jelani McCoy, Curtis Sumpter and the prize prospect Von Wafer.

Blalock has done a good job pushing the pace, making the right decision when running the offense and has played pretty solid defense.  If Steve Blake ends up going somewhere else, they will replace him with a veteran, but they will probably be interested in bringing in a young player like Blalock to add a prospect for the future.

McCoy has been very good showing his athleticism and shot blocking ability.  He definitely belongs on someone’s bench. His offense has been limited to put backs, but he is playing very well.  At worst he is a player that you could put on Tim Duncan for a few spot minutes and would provide insurance in case of foul trouble.  We mentioned him as a potential replacement for Jamal Sampson and at this point, Sampson has the size advantage, but McCoy has an advantage in the athleticism department.  He can run the floor very well which is important for a Nuggets big man.  McCoy is listed at his standard 245, but he looks bigger to me than he did in the past.

Going into summer league play we mentioned Curtis Sumpter is an intriguing player and he just needed to be able to shoot from outside.  Well, he has done that and more.  He has shown a very good feel for when to slash to the basket, made some nice passes, been active and even made a couple of three pointers.  If he continues to play like this, he should be invited to camp along with Blalock and McCoy.

Von Wafer is the player with the best shot at being in the rotation next season and he has been good, but not great.  He missed all four of his three point attempts in their first game, but cashed in on three of four in the second game including an angry three after missing two free throws with a defender in his face (on the three pointer, not the free throws).  He has also done a good job being aggressive and making his way into the lane by utilizing a pump fake on the perimeter.  He even tried to ram a dunk down on top of Pops Mensah-Bonsu the pogo stick from George Washington and drew the foul.  He has not been a star, but is definitely showing why the Nuggets are excited about him.

Larry O’Bannon played very well in the second game showing a good touch from outside and solid athleticism after barely seeing the floor in game one.

I ripped Lamond Murray’s inclusion on the Nuggets’ roster and despite a very solid shooting performance in the first game I stand by it.  He was much worse in game two.  They conveniently forgot to list his birth date on his summer league profile page, but undeterred I found out that he turned 34 in April.

Skita has shown progress in his understanding of the game, but is still no where near being an NBA player.  He has one of the worst spin moves when driving the lane, but he insists on using it often.  Most players change direction when they spin to get around a defender or seal the defender on their back.  Skita just barrels straight ahead into the defender.  It is neither graceful nor effective. 

Other players that have not looked good at all are Dontaye Draper, Bracey Wright and Matt Freije.  Sorry to any family members or college buddies of these three who may have read that, but it is true.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Welcome to the Northwest Division Greg and Kevin!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The NBA Lottery drama is over and it is time to start getting back to some more Nugget specific posts.  The lottery had a potentially huge impact on Denver last night as two of our division rivals are poised to add a sure thing future star.  The star power in the Northwest Division is on the rise. 

Portland is an up and coming team with some really nice young talent.  The have the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, the second overall pick in the draft from last year in LeMarcus Aldridge, a raw point guard with amazing potential in Sergio Rodriguez and now they will probably be adding Greg Oden to roam the paint.  (Also, do not forget about Joel Freeland either.  Odds are that he will end up a rotation player at best, but a lot of scouts were very high on him heading into the draft last season.)  If there is a team with a better talent base to build off of with the potential to be dominant in two or three years, I would like to know who it is. 

Portland also has the option to draft Durant, which might actually be the best choice for them.  Picking Durant would give them a starting five of Jack/Rodriguez, Roy, Durant, Randolph and Aldridge.  Anyone want to bet against that group being dominant in three years?  Me neither.  I actually think that Durant is a better fit for this team as Oden is going to have to operate on the block, which will minimize Randolph’s opportunities there.   Randolph has a decent perimeter game, but Nate McMillen worked very hard last season to get Zach to focus on playing inside instead of outside.  If Oden is the pick, look for Randolph to be traded. 

Seattle may have won the rights to the second pick in the draft, but it is not a cure all for them.  However, this pick gives them the potential to really blow things up and start from scratch.  Durant is a big upgrade over Rashard Lewis as a defender, rebounder and general all around force, and they can now work out a sign and trade for Lewis with the knowledge that they have someone to not only take his place, but exceed his production.  Ray Allen has been the star and face of the franchise since he arrived, but Durant’s star power will allow them to move Ray.  They should be able to get some pretty nice pieces by trading Allen and/or Lewis. 

On the other hand, if Seattle hangs onto Lewis and Allen, they are just a point guard away from being able to go small and run a Phoenix type system.  Seattle has been a team that has tried to outscore the opposition for the past three or four years, adding Durant gives them three 20+ point per game scorers.  Either way, the Sonics are going to be much better in the near future.  It will be interesting to see what they do, because they seem to believe that the division title they won three years ago was legit.  The only reason they have not repeated was because of injuries and at any time they will return to their rightful place as division champs.  I tend to disagree with that assessment though.

The big losers in the lottery, other than Boston and Memphis, may turn out to be Denver, Utah and Minnesota, but the team that may have had a nail driven in the coffin last night was Minnesota.  Not only did they not move up from the seventh selection, they are on the verge of becoming the least talented team in the Northwest Division.  It is one thing for Kevin Garnett to be on a team that just misses the playoffs by a couple of games, but to be on the worst team in the division would probably cause Garnett to spontaneously combust. 

From the Nuggets’ perspective, they should still be a better team than Portland and Seattle next season, but over the next couple of seasons things could change quickly.  Iverson’s contract expires in two years and if he does not believe that Denver is a contender, he will definitely look to sign somewhere else.  Aside form his contract his health could expire at any time.  Add in Camby who is always a health risk and Kenyon Martin who is barely a risk to ever actually be healthy and the Nuggets are paying a lot of money for what is far from a sure thing. 

Right now the Northwest Division belongs to Utah and Denver, but in a couple of years it may be Portland and Seattle’s division.  Then again, maybe Oden turns into Sam Bowie and Durant ends up playing like Keith Van Horn.  Just don’t count on it.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.