Game 30: Denver Nuggets 95 – Golden State Warriors 105

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score

There was one major difference between the first game against Golden State and tonight’s game.  I will give you two different sets of numbers.   

23-43 

and 

10-29 

In the previous game against the Warriors the Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson combined to shoot 23-43.  Tonight they combined to shoot 10-29.  That’s umm, not so good. 

It was mentioned in my last post and in the comments section that the Nuggets offense the other night in Oakland was based far too much on isolation sets.  When Melo and AI are hitting their shots and attacking the rim that type of offense in a fast paced game can produce 124 points.  When even only one of them has a good game it results in 95 points.  I would hate to see what would have happened if Melo had shot as poorly as Iverson. 

Even on possessions where the Nuggets moved and passed the ball, which were about as common as a svelte Samoan, they just were not in sync.  It may have just been one of those nights or part of the reason for their discombobulation on offense when they actually tried to run something may have been because they had no idea how to do anything more complex than pass to AI or Melo and clear out. 

Another difference between the two games was the Warriors inability to hit threes in the fourth quarter in the first game (going 2-11 from behind the arc) and their more restrained attitude in the fourth quarter in this game (2-4).  Golden State did a great job of slowing the pace down and playing under control in the fourth quarter. 

The Nuggets lost some of the positive momentum they had built up tonight.  Nene looked rusty for the first time since returning from injury and Kenyon Martin’s strain looks to be worse than expected as he has missed the past two games.  Instead of being healthy and on a roll heading into their next game, which happens to be against the World Champion San Antonio Spurs, they are unsure about Martin and they are not playing a style that will translate into success against such a strong defensive team. 

Other Observations From Game 30: 

 - I mentioned Nene looked rusty, but it was not all his fault.  The Nuggets did not do a good job of hitting him when he was open under the basket and there were occasions when he did have the ball that their spacing was so poor he had no room to operate.   

He was also the biggest mismatch on both ends of the floor finding himself guarding players like Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson and being guarded by Barnes or other smaller players.  He failed to take advantage of his mismatch when the Nuggets had the ball, but Golden State did not make the same mistake.   

 - Both teams shot poorly, but the Nuggets compounded their shooting woes by turning the ball over 24 times.  When a team is shooting poorly, you cannot afford to give that many possessions away.  Denver did grab 19 offensive rebounds, but part of that is a factor of how many shot they missed, which happened to be 55! 

 - The pattern for the quarter by quarter pace factor we tracked in Golden State was repeated tonight.  The pace factor of the first quarter was 116, the second quarter it was 106.  Things picked up in the third quarter as it increased to 110, but in the fourth quarter the pace factor dropped down to 94.   

 - The downside of getting a lot of steals is he exposes his teammates to being undermanned by running out of the play.  The other downside of overplaying the passing lane like he does is he is susceptible to backdoor cuts.  Monta Ellis did a great job of making those backdoor cuts, but fortunately the Warriors did not really look to take advantage of those situations. 

 - I thought the Nuggets did a good job of trying to run, even after made baskets.  They ended up with only 11 fast break points, but had they not pushed the pace like they did, they may not have scored any more than 80 points. 

 -  Do not look know, but the Blazers won their 13^th straight game tonight and are now tied for first in the Northwest Division.  Can someone please beat Portland! 

Once again check out Golden State of Mind for some thoughts from the Warriors’ side of things.

Game 26: Denver Nuggets 96 – Portland Trailblazers 99

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

It is a shame that I failed to put together a post on last nights’ game until now.  Last night I was as proud of the effort the Nuggets put forth as I have been in a long time.   

I have said that injuries should not be used as an excuse to lose games, but the Nuggets rolled into Portland and had to start a player they had waived just a day before.  That is typically not a precursor to success.  With Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Nene and that Steven Hunter dude (I have heard plays for the Nuggets, but I am not really sure he exists he might as well be Kramer’s friend Bob Sacamano or Seinfeld’s Cousin Jeffrey) all out with various maladies the Nuggets locked horns with a team that had demolish them on the boards just a week or so prior.   

If there was a recipe for disaster, that is probably it.   

The Nuggets hung tough on the glass thanks to another tremendous effort on the glass by Carmelo Anthony who was the leading rebounder in the game with 12.   

They played tremendous scrappy defense and if it was not for a hot streak where the Trailblazers scored 14 points in less than four minutes to start the fourth quarter the Nuggets would have won.   

But the Trailblazers have had ten straight games where they have produced a similar hot streak to pull out win after win.   

There were comments made after the game that the Nuggets found what it took to play all out for 48 minutes and if they can just carry that forward they will be very successful.  Well, this small lineup that brought that level of intensity had shown that they were capable of such an effort in the second week of the season and for some reason George Karl went away from that lineup.   

When you have a strong second five, but your starters are playing too many minutes, that is not good.  Everyone talks about how Iverson can play as many minutes as you can throw at him night after night because he keeps scoring, but the issue with him playing so many minutes is his defense.  Late in the game against Houston Luther Head drove by AI on a couple of occasions where AI could barely move.  The man needs some rest, whether he wants to admit it or not.   

Bobby Jones may never put up great stats and probably leads the league in charges per minute, but he makes things happen.  With Jones able to play the two for 15-20 minutes a game there is no reason AI should play more than 35 or at most 38 minutes a game.  That will preserve him and allow him to play those big minutes in the playoffs and it will let Jones gain some much needed experience.   

If Melo is going to work as hard on the glass as he had the past few games he is going to need more rest too.  Against Portland he missed two dunks he would usually smash and at the end of the game he was so spent that he had a turnaround blocked by Brandon Roy who is not the most dynamic athlete.  Obviously last night Melo and AI needed to play a ton to keep the Nuggets in the game, but I would love to see Karl reduce their minutes. 

Anyway, I am getting away from my primary point and that was to give the Nuggets a great deal of credit for playing hard, and for the most part smart.  They hung with the hottest team in the NBA on the road the night after a double overtime game without their entire roster of power forwards and centers.  They could not have done that without a supreme effort.   

Once again the question regarding this incredibly inconsistent team is can they reproduce the way they played against Portland in the next game or even ever again?

Check out Blazer’s Edge for some insight from the Portland side of things.

Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

Game 24: Denver Nuggets 105 – Portland Trailblazers 116

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score – we are back to ESPN’s because NBA.com’s box score is not updated with final stats 

I wrote yesterday that this game might be interesting because the Nuggets were not going to see the same Portland Trailblazer team they ran out of the gym just over a month ago.   

What a difference that month has made.  Portland is a team that believes in itself and any team that believes in themselves can be very dangerous. 

To me this game was more about the Portland Trailblazers than the Denver Nuggets.  Portland struggled early in the season just as everyone expected having traded away their “best player” Zach Randolph who is the poster boy for putting up good numbers on bad teams (look out Orlando Woolridge, Zach is coming for you) and lost the top draft pick for the season.   That was then, this is now and now Portland is already very good team.  They have talent, they have good coaching, they have players who play hard and are mentally tough. 

Young teams go through two stages of development before they become playoff contenders.  They learn to win at home and then they learn to win on the road.  Once they can do those two things, they are ready to be a factor in the playoffs.  Portland is 9-3 at home and that is not a result of a weak early schedule.   However, they have struggled on the road at least until the last week.  Portland started off the season 0-9 on the road, but now have won three straight, the last two being in Utah and in Denver.  Even more impressive is the fact that they have been doing much of this without LeMarcus Aldridge. 

Brandon Roy is already a much better player than I ever expected him to become.  Travis Outlaw has shown signs, at least in my mind, of becoming a good player in the past and this year he has put things together.  They get very good play from the point in Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez.  Przybilla is a force on the glass and on defense.  He has come a long way since leaving the University of Minnesota after his sophomore season and widely being labeled a bust after his first couple of seasons in the league.  Joel has been around a while, but is still only 28.  They have good depth in the frontcourt with Aldridge, Przybilla and Channing Frye.  Portland also has what many teams crave and that is shooters who can consistently drain threes in Martell Webster and James Jones.  And then there are the players that have not even suited up for them yet led by the top center prospect to enter the league since Tim Duncan in Greg Oden and experienced Euroleague player Rudy Fernandez. 

What is this team missing that will prevent them from winning right now?   Forget the future being bright, the present looks very promising for this very dangerous team. 

Other Observations From Game 24:

 - To be honest between church, Christmas shopping, cooking and actually getting to play a little basketball, and play it poorly, I did not get to watch the game with my typical level of profound concentration and focus. 

That being said, it was easy to see the difference in the game. 

Rebounding. 

Portland had 18 offensive rebounds on 40 missed shots!  That lead to the Blazers outrebounding the Nuggets by a total of 41-31. When you let a team grab almost half of their misses you are in for a long night. 

 - Allen Iverson scored 38 points tonight continuing his impressive scoring run as of late in losing efforts.  I started looking at his game by game stats and found an interesting break point between Iverson’s per game shot totals and the Nuggets’ winning percentage. 

When AI takes 20 or fewer shots the Nuggets are 12-4.  When he takes 21 or more shots they are 2-6. 

I think we can draw three conclusions from this.  The first conclusion is the correlation is just a factor of such a small sample size.  That may be true, but it does not make for interesting blogging so let’s pretend that conclusion one does not exist. 

The second conclusion we can draw is that Iverson always goes down with both guns blazing.  The Nuggets may not have lost because he shot too much, but he kept shooting in a vain attempt to get them back in the game.  I think there is a good amount of truth in that conclusion and I have even documented at least one such occasion where he did just that. 

The third conclusion we can draw is that the Nuggets play their best when Iverson is playing the role of distributor.  This is nothing new as we all like pointing to the Nuggets record of 17-1 when he posts double digit assists. Looking further in those eight games this season where he has shot 21 or more times he has reached double digit assists only once which was one of the two wins the Nuggets notched in those games.  That is probably somewhat obvious as there are only so many possessions in a game and the more you shoot, the less you can pass.  But that is also the point.  We all look for him to hit double digit assists, but now we can also look for him to shoot 20 or fewer times.

Check out Blazer’s Edge for some perspective on tonight’s game from Portland supporters.

Game 23: Denver Nuggets 91 – San Antonio Spurs 102

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

How about that third quarter from the team rated SECOND in the NBA in defensive efficiency?   

The San Antonio Spurs scored 36 points in the third quarter.  They scored on 14 of their final 17 possessions of the quarter.  The Denver Nuggets defensive efficiency rating for the third quarter was 163.4!  It was so pathetic I cannot even come up with a decent joke.  I guess that makes me just as impotent as they were.  Somehow it seems fitting. 

The Nuggets actually played a good first quarter and first three minutes of the second quarter.  They made mistakes, but their effort was strong and their focus was there on both offense and defense. 

Unfortunately, it did not last for long. In the third quarter the Spurs showed the Nuggets that a team can score without having the best athletes or the best creators simply by moving, cutting and sharing the ball.  They also proved that fast break points are not required in San Antonio in order for the Spurs to light up the scoreboard.  San Antonio finished the game with only five fast break points.   

The Spurs again showed that they were a team who has an offensive system they trust in completely no matter which five players were on the court.  That is a lesson the Nuggets need to learn. 

The play that summed up the third quarter was when Jacque Vaughn drove the lane missed a layup and fell down.  He was in the lane on his can and still was able to get the rebound, from his can, and pass it off to an open teammate, from his can, for a score.  Camby and Melo were both “in the vicinity” but they both were too busy trying to make sure they were playing as soft as possible and refused to go after the ball.   

The difference in focus from the first to the third quarter was shocking.  The Nuggets did not even look like the same team.  The transformation actually occurred early in the second quarter as the Nuggets’ offense grew stagnant and they decided not to guard the three point line and by the end of the third quarer the walls of the Nuggets’ mud hut had collapsed under the percipitation from Monsoon Popovich. 

As I am sure you all know, the Nuggets played without Kenyon Martin who apparently elbowed Melvin Ely in the eye socket the other night.  How can we know for sure that Melvin’s eye socket was not already very badly damaged or structurally weak and Martin just got the blame for breaking it the rest of the way?   

However, the Spurs were shorthanded as well playing without Tony Parker.  Tim Duncan returned to action, but only played 20 minutes as he was clearly still hobbled by his sprained ankle and bruised knee. 

The Nuggets did miss Kenyon.  Linas Kleiza started in his place, but found himself in early foul trouble.  Carmelo and Camby also ended up missing time in the first half due to fouls.  Of course, no Spur ended the game with more than two fouls.  Hmmm…interesting. 

The good news is the Nuggets were just another victim laid to waste by the steamroller that is the Spurs playing at home.  They are still in first place in the Northwest and fourth in the conference. 

Next is a home game against a red hot Portland team who is on a six game winning streak including wins against Utah twice and Golden State (all three wins were earned without the services of LeMarcus Aldridge).  They have also won their last two road games as part of the six game streak.   I doubt that tomorrow night will be as easy as the previous meeting with Portland, but the Blazers have to lose sometime right?   

Other Observations From Game 23:

 - Has anyone noticed that Camby has pretty much stopped taking that horrid shot from around the top of the circle?  On the other hand, he has become quite deft at drilling the fifteen foot baseline shot.  Chris Marlowe has called it his knew favorite shot on a couple of occasions. 

I am glad that Chris cares enough to keep asking Marcus what his favorite shot is from week to week.  

 - I think Manu Ginboli’s bald spot is already much larger than it was at the beginning of the season.  It must be growing because all of the stress he is experiencing because of the guilt he feels from defrauding the NBA with his horrible flopping. 

 -  Bobby Jones played well.  He had active hands on defense and made things tough on Ginobili for a short time in the fourth quarter.  It will be interesting to see if he played well enough for George to call his name tomorrow against Portland. 

 - Almost Famous is such a freakin’ great movie.  Maybe I should start a Cameron Crowe Underappreciated Movie Blog.  I could write about Almost Famous, Singles and even Elizabethtown which was not as strong as most of his other work, but was nowhere near as bad as most people claim.  Then I could see which of my two blogs would be the first to attract 100 page views.  Maybe I should just move on… 

 - Somehow Michael Finley, in only 25:30 of game time, finished as a +27!  Think about that.  For every minute he was on the floor the Spurs scored one more point than the Nuggets.  Finley set his season high for points and his second best totals in rebounds and assists.   

 - Melo had a quiet night.  He shot well (7-15) and rebounded well (nine boards), but he was difficult to notice on the court from time to time.  He shot no free throws for just the second time this season.  His defensive effort was not particularly impressive (shocker).  Apart from the fourth quarter of the New Orleans game Melo has not put much of a stamp on any of their recent games.   

 - Iverson was tremendous again tonight.  Even when the game was done and it was just a matter of the clock hitting triple zero, Iverson showed a great deal of emotion in the fourth quarter as he tried to bring the Nuggets back.  Things almost became interesting with a little over four minutes left in the game, but the Nuggets could never get closer than eleven points. 

 - I honestly have not really cared much about the whole Iverson’s team or Melo’s team debate.  I always believed that they both needed to work together to make the game easier for everyone.  Over the past few games, it is clear that Iverson has definitely played the role of alpha dog.  It may just be that Melo has struggled lately and Iverson is just trying to pick up the slack, or it may be something more significant in the entire AI’s team or Melo’s team question.

For insight from the perspective of the spoiled fans of the Spurs check out Pounding the Rock.

Fan Correspondent Report: Game 9 – Portland at Denver

Welcome to the first installment of the Born A Nuggets Fan Fan Correspondent Report.  For more information on this controversial and groundbreaking program click here.   

Frequent commenter JM was one of the winners of the Tommy Boy quote contest at the end of the “How Not to Run the Pick and Roll” post (other winners will be announced soon so hang in there guys).  To kick off the Fan Correspondent Program here is his insightful and entertaining report from the inside and around the Pepsi Center. 

I work downtown, so my wife got a babysitter for the little one and took the light rail and met me down there for the game.  I walked to the Pepsi Center and got there about 4:45.  So I wandered around the arena in the frigid air.  Fan 950 was setting up the tent and hardly a soul was there.  I made the rounds around Pepsi Center and went into the back of the arena.  The first time I walked by the Trailblazers bus had just pulled in.  I walked further and I walked past Julie Browman.  It was funny, she didn’t even make any eye contact with me.  I wouldn’t either, if I was a svelte female walking alone and some 6′ 5″ stranger tries to say hi.  I didn’t say a word, but it was amusing.  The lady who holds up the “we love (Player’s Name)” signs was on the street waiting for the team to arrive.  I talked with her for a minute.  She was nice but I’m sure she was thinking, “who the heck is this guy?”  Round two around Pepsi Center.  A $300k + Mercedes Benz pulls up into the team’s parking lot.  Based on from what I hear about Marcus Camby’s nice ride, I assume it’s him pulling in.  The windows are tinted and I wasn’t going to gawk as he got out of his car.  I will just assume it was either him, AI, or Carmelo pulling up.

Fast forward to the game after a burger at the Blue Sky Grill.  I won seats from 950 the Fan.  I called my buddy who used to work IT at Pepsi Center to find out where they were.  He said they were great seats, and they were.  Twenty rows from the court opposite of the benches and scorers’ table. As the game starts, I notice there is virtually no one in the upper deck of the arena.  I know we are playing Portland tonight, but holy crap, this arena would sell out every time AI came to town as a Sixer!  People don’t realize how good we have it in Denver.  Anyway, two drunk early-twenty somethings sitting in front of me in the first half.  They were completely obnoxious.  Every other word an F-word, they smelled funny, and were downright stupid.  Then there was the guy in row 17 yelling “Blake sucks!” every time he touched the ball.  I would understand completely if that was Nick Van Exel.  But picking on Steve Blake is like trying to publicly humiliate your Grandpa.  You look stupid trying to do it.  Alcohol has an interesting affect on people.

During the kiss cam, Rocky tried kissing the police officer who looked a lot like Elvis.  Rocky in turn gets him to shake his booty and do a pretty good Elvis impression.  Some national champion jump rope team from Boulder performed the half-time festivities.  Rocky tried his half-court shot during two time outs in the 4th quarter, and failed miserably.  During the second attempt, JR Smith came out onto the court, took the ball from Rocky’s hand and nearly nailed it from that distance.

As far as the scuffle with Camby, I saw him getting into it more with Joel Przybilla than with Aldridge.  In fact, it looked like he was the one who started it.  They were jawing a little at each other during Aldridge’s free throws.  Anyway, it didn’t escalate, and I forgot about it until I read the paper this morning. 

Game 9: Denver Nuggets 110 – Portland Trailblazers 93

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score

Did anyone else watch the first half and just feel kind of unsettled about the game tonight?  Not about the outcome, but about the intensity and the flow.  I would equate it to watching a decent foreign movie.  I was interested in what was going on, but felt a little smarmy and uncomfortable because of it. 

At the end of the first half the Nuggets had a 14 point lead, but did you get the feeling you were watching good basketball?  Towards the end of the second quarter the Nuggets started to get it together to build the lead up to 14, but I felt that was due more to Portland’s lack of performance (a young team coming off of a big win at home against Detroit the night before) than the Nuggets dominating them. 

At half time you could have looked at this game in one of two ways.  Either the Nuggets are good enough that they can play poorly and still handle a mediocre team or they did not have good focus and had they played a better team, they might have been in trouble.   

Actually I think the truth, like a creamy filling, is somewhere in the middle. 

Fortunately the second half was completely different.  The Nuggets came out in the third quarter and played with focus and purpose.  I felt like I was watching a good old American action flick again with lots of explosions and other macho stuff. 

After a cold shooting first half, Iverson was red hot to start off the second.  He knew Steve Blake could not guard him and proved it.   

The Blazers switched to a zone in an attempt to slow down Iverson and the Nuggets took advantage of it to increase their lead.  After the standing around isolation offense the Nuggets foisted on us in the first half the ball movement and unselfish passing was tremendous to watch.  On several occasions Portland chose to double Melo on the wing and he almost always made a smart pass that resulted in a good shot.  Melo, Camby, and J.R. Smith all made tremendous passes that resulted in dunks or easy layups.  

The Nuggets were very active on defense and on the glass.  They stripped the Blazers post players continuously in the third quarter and ended up with a total of 13 steals. 

Following Iverson’s lead Melo was red hot in the fourth quarter and they were able to turn the last five minutes of the game into garbage time.   Heading into a timeout in the third quarter Melo saw that he was coming out of the game and showed some displeasure.  He knew that he could be dominant on offense against this team and wanted to stay in the game.  When he came back in the game he was dominant.  I thought that was good to see.  Melo has the hunger to be an MVP caliber player.  He is also starting to show the all around game and smarts to get him there. 

If there was an area I was disappointed in tonight it was that I believe the Nuggets had a chance to really start to develop a defensive identity.  They had played six quarters of tremendous defense in a row.  Tonight they actually implemented a completely different defensive system than they had in any of the previous games this season.  Instead of fighting through picks and playing straight up, they switched almost every pick.  They also played a good deal of zone defense.    

I almost wonder if George Karl was experimenting during this game as the Trailblazers were a good team for the Nuggets to implement this type of switching defense against.  They did not have a cat quick scoring point guard or a big man who could overpower anyone inside.  Steve Blake was not going to kill the Nuggets and the only Nugget that could not reasonably guard LeMarcus Aldridge on a switch until help arrived is Iverson.   

Even with the defensive game plan differing from what I was hoping for, the bottom line is the Nuggets took care of business at home and easily dispatched of a young team.   

Other Observations From Game 9: 

 - I continue to be impressed with J.R. Smith.  In the past if his shot was not falling, he would be a liability for the Nuggets.  This year he is working hard on defense and creating quality shots for his teammates.  He even passed on a wide open three at one point in order to swing the ball around the perimeter.  On several occasions J.R. found himself matched up with players like Aldridge and Przybilla under the basket either on a switch or when the Nuggets were playing zone.  He never stopped fighting and did as well as anyone could expect of him under those circumstances.  In the past he would have probably run out of there faster than my readers are passing out from boredom. 

 - Kleiza again brought a great deal of energy and hustle to the game.  He dove on the floor for a loose ball in the fourth quarter with a big lead.   

 - Things got a little chippy in the third quarter when Camby took a wild swing at a shot by Aldridge and clipped his head in the process.  Aldridge took exception to the fact that he was hit in the head and the two started jawing at each other.  Fortunately they were separated because if either one threw a punch and landed it their scrawny arms would have probably shattered. 

Later on in the broadcast I picked up on a clue as to why Camby tried so hard to prevent the easy shot by Aldridge.  I forget which Blazer received the pass, but he had an open layup.  Camby violently pushed J.R. Smith into him to prevent the shot from going in.  I heard someone yell, “No layups!” when Camby pushed J.R. into the Blazer.  On the replay Camby’s mouth was moving which leads me to believe he was the shouter. 

That leads me to believe the Nuggets were trying to play physical with the Blazers and had implemented a “no layup rule” at least for the night.   On the play that angered Aldridge Camby fouled him hard enough to make sure he did not get a layup. 

This strategy hurt the Nuggets in garbage time though as they gave up more three point plays than should be legal in most states.

 - The three point watch is on life support.  After three straight hot shooting games the Nuggets had a gooseegg until Mike Wilks hit one late in the game.  They ended up 1-13.  Everyone missed at least one three except for Martin, Camby, Von Wafer and our hero Mike Wilks.  Fortunately Martin and Camby did not take a three and unfortunately Wafer did not either. 

 - The Blazers ran a promo during the Pistons game the night before the Nuggets game where Steve Blake claimed they had a plan for Melo.  They better go back to the drawing board because it was not effective.   

At all. 

 - I do not think Camby took one jumper tonight.  I can not tell you how happy that makes me.  He almost fired off the dreaded pull up jumper, but dropped off a beautiful bounce pass to Martin for a big slam instead.  That was the best decision that has been made since someone put cheese and bacon on a hamburger.  Perhaps he is reading Born A Nuggets Fan!

Once again a very good win against an underrated team.  When my only complaint was that I wish they had played a different defense during a game where they held the opposition to 39% shooting and held their best player (Brandon Roy) to 10.6 points under his average it was a good night.

This reminded me a little of how the Nuggets played during their hot streak to close out the 2004-2005 season, but as always I remain cautious.  A team that is supposed to win 55-60 games should have a large number of these games during the season.

Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

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There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Welcome to the Northwest Division Greg and Kevin!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The NBA Lottery drama is over and it is time to start getting back to some more Nugget specific posts.  The lottery had a potentially huge impact on Denver last night as two of our division rivals are poised to add a sure thing future star.  The star power in the Northwest Division is on the rise. 

Portland is an up and coming team with some really nice young talent.  The have the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, the second overall pick in the draft from last year in LeMarcus Aldridge, a raw point guard with amazing potential in Sergio Rodriguez and now they will probably be adding Greg Oden to roam the paint.  (Also, do not forget about Joel Freeland either.  Odds are that he will end up a rotation player at best, but a lot of scouts were very high on him heading into the draft last season.)  If there is a team with a better talent base to build off of with the potential to be dominant in two or three years, I would like to know who it is. 

Portland also has the option to draft Durant, which might actually be the best choice for them.  Picking Durant would give them a starting five of Jack/Rodriguez, Roy, Durant, Randolph and Aldridge.  Anyone want to bet against that group being dominant in three years?  Me neither.  I actually think that Durant is a better fit for this team as Oden is going to have to operate on the block, which will minimize Randolph’s opportunities there.   Randolph has a decent perimeter game, but Nate McMillen worked very hard last season to get Zach to focus on playing inside instead of outside.  If Oden is the pick, look for Randolph to be traded. 

Seattle may have won the rights to the second pick in the draft, but it is not a cure all for them.  However, this pick gives them the potential to really blow things up and start from scratch.  Durant is a big upgrade over Rashard Lewis as a defender, rebounder and general all around force, and they can now work out a sign and trade for Lewis with the knowledge that they have someone to not only take his place, but exceed his production.  Ray Allen has been the star and face of the franchise since he arrived, but Durant’s star power will allow them to move Ray.  They should be able to get some pretty nice pieces by trading Allen and/or Lewis. 

On the other hand, if Seattle hangs onto Lewis and Allen, they are just a point guard away from being able to go small and run a Phoenix type system.  Seattle has been a team that has tried to outscore the opposition for the past three or four years, adding Durant gives them three 20+ point per game scorers.  Either way, the Sonics are going to be much better in the near future.  It will be interesting to see what they do, because they seem to believe that the division title they won three years ago was legit.  The only reason they have not repeated was because of injuries and at any time they will return to their rightful place as division champs.  I tend to disagree with that assessment though.

The big losers in the lottery, other than Boston and Memphis, may turn out to be Denver, Utah and Minnesota, but the team that may have had a nail driven in the coffin last night was Minnesota.  Not only did they not move up from the seventh selection, they are on the verge of becoming the least talented team in the Northwest Division.  It is one thing for Kevin Garnett to be on a team that just misses the playoffs by a couple of games, but to be on the worst team in the division would probably cause Garnett to spontaneously combust. 

From the Nuggets’ perspective, they should still be a better team than Portland and Seattle next season, but over the next couple of seasons things could change quickly.  Iverson’s contract expires in two years and if he does not believe that Denver is a contender, he will definitely look to sign somewhere else.  Aside form his contract his health could expire at any time.  Add in Camby who is always a health risk and Kenyon Martin who is barely a risk to ever actually be healthy and the Nuggets are paying a lot of money for what is far from a sure thing. 

Right now the Northwest Division belongs to Utah and Denver, but in a couple of years it may be Portland and Seattle’s division.  Then again, maybe Oden turns into Sam Bowie and Durant ends up playing like Keith Van Horn.  Just don’t count on it.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.