Another Big Trade with the 76ers!

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We finally have a Ricky Sanchez update. 

The Nuggets actually traded for the opportunity to draft Ricky “Don’t Call Me Skita” Sanchez in the 2005 draft when they sent Jarrett Jack to Portland in exchange for Linas Kleiza and Sanchez.  They drafted Ricky ahead of other productive second round players such as Ersan Ilyasova, Ronny Turiaf (not that I wanted him, but he is contributing in the NBA), Mickael Gelabale and Ryan Gomes.  They also passed on 2007 MIP Monta Ellis and future studs Andray Blatche (who was my personal choice) and Amir Johnson (trust me, their day is coming).   

Sanchez started off playing for George Karl’s CBA team, the Idaho Stampede, and we saw some notes and updates on his progress in the papers from time to time.  Over time those updates became less and less frequent until you had to go look up Ricky’s stats on your own if you wanted to see how he was doing.  Then in 2006, Sanchez did not even participate in training camp.  Not a good sign.   

We will never know if he was going to participate in the Nuggets’ upcoming 2007 training camp because the Nuggets traded his draft rights to the 76ers along with Reggie Evans in exchange for former draft work out wonder Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones.  We have not been able to confirm at this time if the Nuggets think he is former Denver NBA great Bobby Jones, but when the current Bobby Jones shows up with his slightly darker shade of skin than the original Bobby Jones I think they will figure it out.   

The real news, not that the admission of another blown draft day trade/pick by the Nuggets represented by Ricky Sanchez is not news, was the departure of Reggie Evans and arrival of Steven Hunter.  Reggie may end up best known for yanking on Chris Kaman’s man purse while jostling under the basket in the 2006 playoffs which is fitting.   

Reggie is a tremendous rebounder, but he is not a good defender as he was undersized and relatively unathletic.  On offense, he garnered a fair amount of offensive rebounds, but his conversion rate was not impressive.  He would typically miss a put back, get fouled and then miss both free throws.  Even though he provides a huge boost on the glass, his defensive and offensive shortcomings made it difficult to play him.   

For statistical evidence of his one dimensional game look no further than his PER.  Reggie led the league in rebounds per 48 minutes yet his PER is well below average.  How can you lead the league in a category and not even produce average output when you are on the floor?   

Steven Hunter will not be the rebounder that Evans is, but he is a better defender and provides a legitimate back up center that can reasonably replicate some of the things Marcus Camby does on defense.  Hunter is only 25 and still has plenty of time to continue to develop.  He averages over a block a game even though he has played less than 16 minutes a night over his career.  He has had two seasons where he shot over 60% from the floor and I think 2007-08 will be his third.  Somehow Hunter is statistically a worse free throw shooter than Reggie, but he is still a nice upgrade to the Nuggets roster. 

So long Ricky and Reggie, we hope you give the 76ers everything you gave the Nuggets.  If so, this will be a very nice trade for Denver.

Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

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There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Chucky Atkins?

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I am not enthused about the potential Chucky Atkins signing.  He did have a nice statistical season last year at Memphis, but it is clearly a fluke season.  His Player Efficiency Rating spiked last season at 17.45.  His second best PER season was 13.44.  He is more of a scoring point guard than Steve Blake, but another scorer is not what this team needs.  Atkins is being touted as a better three point shooter than Blake, but each of them sport a career three point shooting average of 37.0%.  Blake is six years younger and entering his prime and Atkins will be 33 starting the season.   

I realize that Blake may be too expensive for the Nuggets, but we do not know that for sure yet.  If Mo Williams ends up signing with Miami instead of Milwaukee the Blake market will dry up.  The Nuggets may be able to get him to agree to a deal at about the same salary as what they will be paying Atkins.   

Blake is the superior point guard and the better fit for the Nuggets. If he signs somewhere for the full midlevel exception then so be it, but the Nuggets should not settle for less until they know they have to. 

Other Developments 

• I was shocked that after holding his rights for so long the Spurs dealt Luis Scola away as part of a salary dump.  The fact that he never had a reasonable buy out was a contributing factor, but to use the rights to a player of his ability to get another team to swallow a player with less than three million dollars in salary (Jackie Butler) was surprising to me. 
• The Nuggets summer league team had a very nice showing against Detroit last night.  Von Wafer had a very nice game scoring 25 points including 11 in the first quarter.  Will Blalock had another nice performance.  He was very efficient scoring 16 points on eight shots, although he was only 5-9 from the free throw line, and he did not turn the ball over.  Jelani McCoy had another double-double and Curtis Sumpter provided more energy and heady play.  If Blalock, McCoy and Sumpter are not in camp this fall, I will be shocked.
• The Rocky Mountain Review kicks off today and rookie prospects such as Al Horford, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Morris Almond will be on display. 

Update:

It is official.  The Nuggets signed Chucky Atkins for $3.2 million in 07-08 and $3.4 million in 08-09.  Steve Blake has agreed to sign with the Trailblazers, but the terms have not been disclosed.  If he signed for $4.0 million or so the Nuggets will have made a big mistake to save about $1.5 million next season.  Giving up Blake for Atkins makes no sense from a basketball perspective. 

The Circle is Now Complete

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Remember back at the 2003 NBA Lottery when the number one pick in the draft had come down to the Grizzlies and Cavilers for the chance to draft LeBron James.  The other subplot was if Memphis did not land the top pick, then Detroit received the pick as part of a trade for Otis Thorpe that had been agreed to several years prior to the events that were unfolding that night. 

We all remember the look on Jerry West’s face when he saw that not only did he miss out on LeBron James, but he was going to have to ship the number two pick in the draft to Detroit.  Equally as memorable was Detroit deciding to select Darko Milicic with that pick they received from Memphis instead of Melo. 

Why am I recounting all of this?  Reports are circulating that Darko has agreed to sign with Memphis.  It may not be much consolation for missing out on LeBron, but they just got theit old number two pick back and all it will cost them is a little bit of cash.

Hopefully now Jerry West can sleep a little better at night.

Rumors and Projections That Make no Sense

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First the KG trade rumors.  It is obvious that the Wolves are working to trade KG before the draft in order to land some picks.  That makes sense.  His value will drop after the draft and bottom out at the trade deadline.  They need to make a deal now.

What makes no sense, if the Stoudemire to Atlanta or Charlotte rumors are true (and that is a big if), and Phoenix is willing to trade Amare, why on earth would Minnesota not take him?  I know cap space and draft picks offer the siren song of the unknown and create excitement, but Amare is an absolute stud who can score at will.  He was rusty for the first month or so of last season and went on a tear after that.  I realize that Minnesota will not have cap space in the future, but if they just nab Amare, they get a top flight player for KG.  What good will cap space do them?  What major free agent will ever want to sign there knowing that they have failed to build around their star player for all of these years?  Minnesota will not get anything better than Amare when they finally trade KG.  They should just do a deal straight up with Phoenix right now.

Why would Milwaukee be interested in Mike Conley?  They have a point guard that they can easily keep as long as they pony up the cash.  Their team will not get better if they draft a PG just to let the one they have go.  Sure they will probably have to pay a little more than Mo Williams is worth to keep him, but the whole goal is to build a team, not replace one player with another.  If they can waive goodbye to Williams and then sign a top free agent with what they save then fine, but who do they think they can sign that will help?  It is doubtful that Conley will even be available to them at #6, but it still bugs me that they were ever considering Conley.

If Joakim Noah is such a great team guy, why is he telling Milwaukee and Minnesota not to draft him?  If he was such a team oriented player, why not go with whoever drafts you and work hard to make that team better?  Steve Francis pulls this with Vancouver and he is an ungrateful jerk.  Noah does it and he is still a media darling.  What’s the difference?

Why doesn’t David Stern just appoint someone to run the Hawks until this ownership issue is resolved?  Having a team that is both such an important position in the draft and being ripe to help implement a major trade mired in conflict is screwing everything up.  If they could have landed Stoudemire, but one owner would not allow it out of spite for the other owners someone should have stepped in and forced things through.  How good would the Hawks be with Amare?  Shelden Williams does not look so bad at the four with Amare on one side and Josh Smith on the other.  Throw in Joe Johnson and that deep bench and you have a very dangerous team.  Now on the other hand, add in Al Horford or Yi Jianlian and Acie Law and what do you have?  Another lottery appearance, that’s what.

What is keeping Boston and Indiana from making deals?  Boston needs to show some progress and Indiana needs to start over.  They are both active in trade discussions, but like I said earlier, player values spike around the draft, unless they have an expiring contract, then their value spikes at the trade deadline.  Neither team is working with a large expiring contract so get something done already.  What does Boston do that will improve them at #5?  Nothing.  Sure they can land another solid prospect, but that is it.  Maybe if they take Jeff Green or Corey Brewer they have a player who will help from day one, but will they be in the playoffs this season?  Next season?  Five years from now?  No one knows.  This team is going nowhere without a trade.  Indiana needs to get rid of Jermaine O’Neal.  It sounds like they are trying, but they need to do something sooner rather than later.

I am hoping that we get some major trades going tonight, but I would not count on it.  At least there is enough suspense surrounding where all the top players will end up since it really is a crap shoot from pick three through 12 or so. 

Let Them Play!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!