Bags Packed and Questions Answered

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I need something to divert my attention away from counting down the minutes to the Rockies first World Series appearance later tonight.  There has been a plethora of Nuggets news this afternoon so it is time for another post. 

First of all the Nuggets have waived five players to get down to 14.  A couple of the departures were mild surprises.   Predictably the Nuggets parted ways with Stacey Augmon and Brad Stricker.  Mike Wilks was shown the door just a couple of days after he was signed.  Anthony Roberson was the first somewhat surprising name.  With the uncertainty at point it might have made sense to keep him around until Anthony Carter was healthy.  Roberson put up good numbers and was the quickest point guard on the roster.   

The name that was a borderline shock to me was Jelani McCoy.  McCoy had proven to be a good rebounder and shot blocker.  As a third string center, behind Camby and Steven Hunter, he was a nice player.  I realize that some teams like carrying only 14 players so that they can add someone whenever they feel like it, but with Nene and Kenyon coming off of injuries and facing limited minutes and Najera seemingly constantly banged up why not hang onto another big body to fill in some potential gaps?   

If the Nuggets have their eye on someone else to fill in that fifteenth spot it may be Jamaal Sampson was just waived by Dallas.  I believed the Nuggets brought McCoy in as a cheap replacement for Sampson.  Now that Sampson has been waived, perhaps he can be a cheap replacement for himself.   

The other news that caught my eye was some questions posed by none other than Coach George Karl himself in an interview.  I believe I know the answers to some of these questions so let’s give it a shot. 

Question #1 – “I don’t know who’s going to be the starters on my team.” 

Answer #1 – OK, so that was actually a statement, but just roll with me.  Opening night starters should be AI, Bobby Jones, Melo, Nene and Camby.  This group was running together during training camp and I like the Jones has been shooting the ball.  He made only one of nine three point attempts, but so far in the preseason he has been shooting the ball very well.  I realize it is just the preseason, but let’s give him a chance to prove himself.  He plays solid defense and is a good passer.  Maybe he is a hidden gem that can be the difference between a good team and a great team.  Who knows? 

Those should be the opening night starters George so there you go. 

Question #2 – “I don’t know how we’re going to play the ‘four’ position, with Kenyon being limited minutes, and Nene will probably be on limited minutes early.” 

Answer #2 – Kenyon and Nene can play at least twenty minutes a piece.  Eduardo is perfectly capable of playing another twenty.  That is 60 minutes of playing for a 48 minute game.  Also, Kleiza has been practicing at the four and Melo is capable of sliding over for short stretches.  Camby and Hunter can play together in a big frontcourt.  Even if Kenyon and Nene can only go 15 minutes each, there are still plenty of options.  My vote is for Najera to fill in the relatively small blanks. 

Question #3 – Not Knowing even the backup (shooting guard/small forward) right now, because Bobby Jones has moved up the ladder.  J.R. (Smith) obviously won’t play for the first three games.” 

Answer #3 – OK, so maybe the question gimmick was not the best ideas as Karl was making statements, but he is definitely stating that he does not know what he is going to do and that is the point.  Anyway, Bobby Jones and Melo are going to start as shown in question #1.  That makes the back up small forward Linus Kleiza.  Von Wafer is the best candidate to fill in behind Jones and depending on how he does J.R. Smith may be relegated to the bench once again.  Wafer has been streaky in camp, but is very capable of hitting open threes which should be available in large quantities.  Once again, if Jones and Wafer play twenty minutes each, that leaves just a handful of minutes for AI to swing over to the two and they will not need to worry about Yakhouba Diawara ending up on the court without his warm ups on.   

Question #4 – “Will I start (Allen Iverson) at point or at off-(guard)?” 

Answer #4 – Finally an actual question.  Vindicated!  Once again see the answer to question #1.  AI will start at the point.  Chucky Atkins is a fill in at best.  The fact that they waived Roberson shows that AI will put in a lot of time at the point as the only other capable points on the roster are Atkins and Johnson.  Atkins is still not 100% and Carter will be out for at least the first two weeks of the season.  Right now there is no other option than playing AI at the point.   

Also, Iverson can slide over to the two, with Atkins or Johnson on the floor, but that is a defensive nightmare for the Nuggets, with the current focus on defense I doubt you will see many minutes played by a smallish back court.   

There you go George.  I hope that was helpful.

Another Big Trade with the 76ers!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

We finally have a Ricky Sanchez update. 

The Nuggets actually traded for the opportunity to draft Ricky “Don’t Call Me Skita” Sanchez in the 2005 draft when they sent Jarrett Jack to Portland in exchange for Linas Kleiza and Sanchez.  They drafted Ricky ahead of other productive second round players such as Ersan Ilyasova, Ronny Turiaf (not that I wanted him, but he is contributing in the NBA), Mickael Gelabale and Ryan Gomes.  They also passed on 2007 MIP Monta Ellis and future studs Andray Blatche (who was my personal choice) and Amir Johnson (trust me, their day is coming).   

Sanchez started off playing for George Karl’s CBA team, the Idaho Stampede, and we saw some notes and updates on his progress in the papers from time to time.  Over time those updates became less and less frequent until you had to go look up Ricky’s stats on your own if you wanted to see how he was doing.  Then in 2006, Sanchez did not even participate in training camp.  Not a good sign.   

We will never know if he was going to participate in the Nuggets’ upcoming 2007 training camp because the Nuggets traded his draft rights to the 76ers along with Reggie Evans in exchange for former draft work out wonder Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones.  We have not been able to confirm at this time if the Nuggets think he is former Denver NBA great Bobby Jones, but when the current Bobby Jones shows up with his slightly darker shade of skin than the original Bobby Jones I think they will figure it out.   

The real news, not that the admission of another blown draft day trade/pick by the Nuggets represented by Ricky Sanchez is not news, was the departure of Reggie Evans and arrival of Steven Hunter.  Reggie may end up best known for yanking on Chris Kaman’s man purse while jostling under the basket in the 2006 playoffs which is fitting.   

Reggie is a tremendous rebounder, but he is not a good defender as he was undersized and relatively unathletic.  On offense, he garnered a fair amount of offensive rebounds, but his conversion rate was not impressive.  He would typically miss a put back, get fouled and then miss both free throws.  Even though he provides a huge boost on the glass, his defensive and offensive shortcomings made it difficult to play him.   

For statistical evidence of his one dimensional game look no further than his PER.  Reggie led the league in rebounds per 48 minutes yet his PER is well below average.  How can you lead the league in a category and not even produce average output when you are on the floor?   

Steven Hunter will not be the rebounder that Evans is, but he is a better defender and provides a legitimate back up center that can reasonably replicate some of the things Marcus Camby does on defense.  Hunter is only 25 and still has plenty of time to continue to develop.  He averages over a block a game even though he has played less than 16 minutes a night over his career.  He has had two seasons where he shot over 60% from the floor and I think 2007-08 will be his third.  Somehow Hunter is statistically a worse free throw shooter than Reggie, but he is still a nice upgrade to the Nuggets roster. 

So long Ricky and Reggie, we hope you give the 76ers everything you gave the Nuggets.  If so, this will be a very nice trade for Denver.

Chucky Atkins?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I am not enthused about the potential Chucky Atkins signing.  He did have a nice statistical season last year at Memphis, but it is clearly a fluke season.  His Player Efficiency Rating spiked last season at 17.45.  His second best PER season was 13.44.  He is more of a scoring point guard than Steve Blake, but another scorer is not what this team needs.  Atkins is being touted as a better three point shooter than Blake, but each of them sport a career three point shooting average of 37.0%.  Blake is six years younger and entering his prime and Atkins will be 33 starting the season.   

I realize that Blake may be too expensive for the Nuggets, but we do not know that for sure yet.  If Mo Williams ends up signing with Miami instead of Milwaukee the Blake market will dry up.  The Nuggets may be able to get him to agree to a deal at about the same salary as what they will be paying Atkins.   

Blake is the superior point guard and the better fit for the Nuggets. If he signs somewhere for the full midlevel exception then so be it, but the Nuggets should not settle for less until they know they have to. 

Other Developments 

• I was shocked that after holding his rights for so long the Spurs dealt Luis Scola away as part of a salary dump.  The fact that he never had a reasonable buy out was a contributing factor, but to use the rights to a player of his ability to get another team to swallow a player with less than three million dollars in salary (Jackie Butler) was surprising to me. 
• The Nuggets summer league team had a very nice showing against Detroit last night.  Von Wafer had a very nice game scoring 25 points including 11 in the first quarter.  Will Blalock had another nice performance.  He was very efficient scoring 16 points on eight shots, although he was only 5-9 from the free throw line, and he did not turn the ball over.  Jelani McCoy had another double-double and Curtis Sumpter provided more energy and heady play.  If Blalock, McCoy and Sumpter are not in camp this fall, I will be shocked.
• The Rocky Mountain Review kicks off today and rookie prospects such as Al Horford, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Morris Almond will be on display. 

Update:

It is official.  The Nuggets signed Chucky Atkins for $3.2 million in 07-08 and $3.4 million in 08-09.  Steve Blake has agreed to sign with the Trailblazers, but the terms have not been disclosed.  If he signed for $4.0 million or so the Nuggets will have made a big mistake to save about $1.5 million next season.  Giving up Blake for Atkins makes no sense from a basketball perspective. 

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Let Them Play!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!

Does the Lottery Need to be Fixed?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Everyone is concerned with fixing the lottery and stopping tanking.  The point has been made that tanking has never proven to be an effective strategy.  Experience has shown that the likelihood of receiving the top pick is not greatly increased by finishing a couple of spots lower in the standings.  Case in point, which two teams tanked the most this season?  Boston and Milwaukee.  Where are they drafting?  Fifth and sixth. 

With the three worst teams by record missing out on the first three picks everyone is going to want to change the system.  Most people want to increase the chances of the worst teams winning the top pick.  Between the Grizzlies, Celtics and Bucks they had a combined probability of over 60% that one of them would end up with the first pick.  How much more likely does it need to be?  Also, the other eleven teams have to have some chance of winning or else it is not a lottery.

I have two ideas to change the lottery.  One idea is to eliminate some of the better teams from the lottery by only allowing the teams with the ten worst records.  If teams are still fighting for a playoff spot, they will probably not be thinking about losing games and sacrificing their playoff chances to get into the lottery.  Of course, teams will still want a chance at getting in the lottery and there will still be tanking by the teams that are on the fringe of getting in the lottery or getting left out, but it will not be a month long process. 

Using this year as an example, New Orleans and Los Angeles were in the playoff hunt until the last day or two of the season, and Indiana and Philadelphia were still in the hunt in the last week as well.  We could assume that every season there will be a couple of teams in each conference that will still be fighting for a playoff spot who end up on the outside looking in.  By making the lottery open to only ten teams the probability of a bad team winning increases.  We also do not have to worry about a borderline playoff team ending up with the number one pick, which is why the league went to the weighted system in the first place.  Lets just take the teams that no one wants to see win out of the equation altogether.

My second idea is to draw for the top two picks instead of the top three.  That way the team with the worst record is guaranteed at least a top three pick and the built in disincentive to tank that the lottery is supposed to provide remains intact.  With this idea the worst case scenario of picking third is better than the current worst case scenario of picking fourth. 

Ultimately, does the lottery really need to be changed?  It drew more attention this year because there were two franchise players to be had and everyone wanted a top two pick.  Some seasons there are two or three franchise players, some seasons there are none.  In the end, the lottery did its job and the teams that tried the most to end up with the top pick were left wondering how they ended up picking outside the top two. 

We will never be able to completely eliminate tanking unless the weighting teams chances based on record is eliminated and none of us want that.  Human nature will probably keep telling teams that even if it is not very likely for them to end up with the top pick, their chance are increased by losing games so they are selling themselves short if they do not do all they can to finish with as many ping pong balls as possible.

We just have to hope the lottery keeps doing its job and fate punishes the teams that do what they can to lose games down the stretch instead of win.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.