Game 16: Denver Nuggets 99 – Los Angeles Lakers 127

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

Tonight’s game against the Lakers was not a total loss.  Yes the end result was a whitewashing of our Nuggets by the Fancy Lakers, but the Nuggets finally came out with an intense, hard working attitude to start the game tonight.   

Too bad it lasted about as long as I would in Compton. 

Even as the Nuggets built up that 17 point first half lead it all seemed a little fluky.  They had a game’s worth of steals in the first 18 minutes.  Once the Lakers started taking care of the ball things dried up for the Nuggets quickly. 

I have come to the conclusion that the Lakers are a better team than the Nuggets at this point in the season.  It is that simple.  I do not like admitting it, but it is true.   

As of now, all the preseason hype is long gone.  The 55 to 60 win aspirations are now no longer worth mentioning.  There are nine playoff caliber teams in the Western Conference.  It is now time to hope the Nuggets do not end up number nine out of that group.   

However, the Nuggets did show some progress as they made a concerted effort to run the floor in the first half even after made baskets, which is a key indicator of whether or not a team has a desire to run the floor.  Anyone can run after a steal at the three point line.  The swing in the score in the Lakers favor was more a result of the Lakers waking up than the Nuggets getting a lead and then settling back into their old habits.  

I guess at this point, with this team about all we can hope for is progress.    

 And we can also be glad we are not Knicks fans.  Dang, now that was a woopin’. 

Other Observations From Game 16: 

 - We must talk about Carmelo Anthony’s night mustn’t we?  He was ejected for the first time this season in what would appear to be his first “losing his head” moment.  I looked back at the replay and I do not think that is the case.  He had his hand up to feel where Vujacic was and was looking away at the ball.  Vujacic started to cut and Melo’s hand just happened to be up around his neck.  Melo then did show some frustration by simply pushing back against Vujacic after he started to exert some force on Melo’s arm.  Melo did not look at Vujacic and in a fit of xenophobia decide that he was going to try to choke him.  He just had his hand up too high.  If his hand was on Vujacic’s chest it would not have been a big deal. 

By the way, with the level of pain Sasha exhibited was truly fitting of a European who grew up watching and playing soccer.  I can see him sitting at the locker after the game rubbing his scrawny little neck with that pouty look on his face while his teammates giggle hiding behind towels.  What a sissy.  Actually, I do not think the other Lakers would even bother hiding.  I am pretty sure it is safe to openly mock Sasha. 

I hope it is not too late to mention this, but look at the word mustn’t.  I do not think I have ever seen it written down before.  It just looks like there is something wrong with it.  It could be the team word for the Nuggets because there looks like there is something wrong with them. 

Getting back to Melo, by looking at the box score, it would seem like he had a pretty solid game, but I do not completely agree with the box score.  He did shoot a very high percentage, but he is just so content to settle for that midrange jumper.  I do not think he drove to the basket more than twice all game long.  After he has hit a couple of those midrange jumpers, which he almost always seems to do starting off games, he can get to the basket at will using a pump fake and his awesome first step. 

Why won’t he do that?   

On some occasions the other team brings a second defender to the ball side of the lane when Melo is on the wing, but unless Melo makes that defender commit to cover him by driving there is no real offensive advantage to be gained from it.  The true sign of his complete dependence on the jumper is the fact that he only took one free throw.  That free throw capped a three point play in one of the two or three instances Melo did drive to the hoop. 

If I could make one other observation on what Melo has been doing on offense, notice where he posts up.  He rarely actually posts up on the block.  He is always posting up twelve feet from the hoop or further.  This just makes it easier for him to continue to shoot that midrange jumper.  He is so quick and so strong he can spin off the block and get either a great shot or set up a teammate.  He used to use that drop step/spin move all the time on the block.  I have not seen it in a while. 

The other change in Melo’s game from the beginning of the season that should be noted is his newfound desire to be a good defender is long gone.  He is not even pretending to play solid defense anymore.   

The bottom line is Melo is not putting forth the necessary effort, especially mentally, on offense or defense. 

 - It will not be long before Andrew Bynum is mentioned among the other top centers in the league.  Since he entered the league he showed good athleticism, nice hands and good touch.  The rest is work ethic and it sounds like after some early concerns he is learning how to be a professional. 

 - Allen Iverson had another decent game, but it was a tale of two styles for AI tonight.  When the Nuggets went on their run to push the lead up to 17 points Iverson had four assists in that sequence.  He ended up with six assists for the game.  I still contend that the Nuggets are a better team when Iverson is playing the set up man, than the primary scorer.  In the second half he went into scorer mode, as he usually does when he senses things are turning against him, and the Nuggets suffered for it.   

Doug Collins commented that AI is better as a shooting guard, but I do not think that is true.  Has anyone noticed a difference in his style of Iverson’s play whether or not he is playing the one or the two?  I never have.  The only difference is how early in the possession he starts dribbling. 

 - Along the same lines, I am starting to think the Nuggets need to start playing Iverson at the point and J.R. Smith at shooting guard.  That gets their five most talented players on the court at the same time and can be a deadly offensive lineup, especially if they dedicate themselves to running.   

 - I thought J.R. played smarter against the Pacers and even more so against the Lakers.  He did a great job of driving instead of settling for the three.  He did take a very bad three at one point in the third quarter as he was off balance on the baseline and chucked up an airball, but overall he is trying to make better decisions.  He will take bad shots, but with his nice offensive package and definite increased effort on defense, I think it is time to see how well he can help this team. 

 - I know George Karl has come out and admitted that the first 20 games or so are like an extended training camp where he is still trying to figure out who to play, where to play them and how much to play them.  Well, he is still fiddling.   Diawara has gone from starting to the DNP – CD.  The small scrappy lineup of Klieza, Najera, Bobby Jones and Smith have gone from being a game changing force during the six game winning streak, doesn’t it seem like that was several weeks ago, to not even being on the floor together.  As I mentioned Diawara did not play a second tonight.  Jones only played in garbage time. 

How much longer is this shuffling going to continue?   

The only reason for it I can think of is if the fall off in three point accuracy by Jones, Kleiza and Diawara have made Karl gun shy to throw those guys out there together. 

For some thoughts from the Lakers’ perspective on tonight’s game check out Forum Blue and Gold.

Game 10: Denver Nuggets 115 – New York Knicks 83

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

I was absolutely thrilled with the Nuggets tonight.  They had an inferior team coming into their building who had just played a double overtime game the night before and they absolutely blew them out.   

No contest. 

No mercy. 

The Nuggets outscored the Knicks by eight in the first quarter, ten in each of the second and third quarters and even tacked on another four point advantage during garbage time in the fourth.  This was dominance on the scale of Godzilla vs. Bambi, Germany vs. France in WWII, red wine vs. white suede or sanity vs. Angelina Jolie. 

In the first half the Nuggets were cutting through the lane as well as I have ever seen them in recent years.  The passing was equally as good as there was an avalanche of layups, dunks and assorted open shots to start the game.   

I will proclaim this on November 18, 2007 for everyone to see and reflect on:  Teams can no longer play zone on the Nuggets.  Not only are they much improved from the three point line, but they have excellent passers at every position.  If they do not shoot their way out of it, they will slice and dice the zone to death. 

It was obvious that Marcus Camby remembered what happened in New York a couple of weeks ago when the Knicks absolutely dominated the boards on the way to a comeback win.  I was not in favor of Camby winning the Defensive Player of the Year award (even though I was glad he did), but tonight he played like a legit Defensive Player of the Year.  He was erasing shots from all over the floor.  Curry and Randolph played the role of comic relief and Camby played the super hero as he continuously swept in and left the bad guys wondering what on earth just hit them.  The Nuggets also outrebounded the Knicks 51-46 and Camby led the way with 20. 

Melo was absolutely amazing as he was hitting jumpers and making sweet dishes left and right.  He is continuing to round out his game as he has added the three point shot, he has committed to pass out of most double teams and on top of all that he is playing defense.  The only thing missing is big time night in and night out defensive rebounding.  I cannot imagine him getting better than he is right now, but the kid is still only 23 and he will continue to improve his game.     

Even better than Melo’s continued improvement may be the emergence of the Nuggets’ second five.  They can D up on anyone, they fight and scrap all over the court forcing turnovers and frustration for the opposition and they score.  When can anyone remember a time where you could look forward to the second team entering the game?  I remember back a few years ago when the Nuggets’ first five should have been their second five.  Paging Vincent Yarbrough, Vincent Yarbrough please report to Memory Lane…Donnell Harvey, please step up to the white loading zone, you are up next.   

As the game wore on the question in the second half was when would Isaiah order the “Code Red” and little Nancy Boy Balkman tried to make his scumbag coach proud by throwing an elbow at Kleiza’s mug early in the fourth.   

I loved how Kleiza kept dropping threes and throwing down dunks in the fourth quarter after the pathetic attempt at thugery by Balkman.  I just wish he would have added in a few glares in the direction of the Knick bench. 

I hope Isaiah was happy that Karl pulled his starters with just over nine minutes left in the fourth quarter.  His weak team sure as heck could not keep it under 40 had he not done so.  Does anyone respect Isaiah as a person anymore?  If you and your spouse were about to have a baby and someone told you your child will grow up to be like Isaiah Thomas or like an axe murderer wouldn’t you kind of be hoping that they turn out to be an axe murderer?  By the way, why do axe murderers get such a bad wrap?  Really, if used correctly, an axe can be a much more efficient tool to kill someone than a gun or a club.  Maybe, I should stop typing… 

Other Observations from Game 10: 

 - Camby must have realized that he did not take a jumper in the last game against Portland because the very first possession of the game he chucked up the dreaded pull up jumper. If you have read this blog before, you probably know what the result of that shot was. 

He missed. 

 - J.R. Smith continues to improve with each passing game.  His effort and intelligence seems to build quarter by quarter.  I could not be more impressed with him.  He continues to attack the basket, make smart passes and is playing inspired hard nosed defense.  Both New Orleans and Chicago must be watching him play and kicking themselves, especially Chicago.  The Bulls did not even consider hanging onto him and sent him to Denver for a pittance of financial relief and two second round picks.   

 - I had not mentioned this before and I was hoping I would not have to as it seemed like things were getting better, but after tonight I cannot hold my tongue anymore.  Whoever the director is for Altitude during Nugget games frequently shows elongated replays that cut into the game action.  I cannot tell you how nuts it makes me to be watching some mundane replay only to hear the ball dribbling in the background and knowing that I am missing live action.  I can see screwing up once or maybe twice, but how can this keep happening?  Helen Keller would do a better job of running things.  At least she would notice the sound of the ball bouncing and stop the replay to get to the live action. 

 - Curry and Lee looked completely winded in the first half. 

 - I have never seen worse jump balls than I did tonight.  The one in the first half between Melo and I think it was Curry was absolutely horrible.  I do not recall seeing a ref call for a rejump because the toss was so atrocious.  Is it that difficult to throw a ball straight up in the air?  Add in the fact that Randolph could not figure out that the ref brought the ball up over his shoulder and then tossed it up when he was going against Martin in the third quarter and they were just disasters.  Maybe they should start using the zeppelin shaped balloons that they fly around at halftime to just drop the ball from above the players.   

 - When Kenyon left the game I rewound the feed and could tell that he hurt his back from watching the replay.  To start Randolph grabbed him and kind of twisted him in an attempt to get position and then after the play was over Randolph gave him a little shot in the back.  If he misses time, that will be very bad. 

 - Malik Rose is still in the league?  I figured the Knicks bought him out just after they used the Alan Houston rule to waive Alan Houston. 

 - Is it wrong of me to hope that Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter never get healthy?  Does that make me a bad person?  I know I have said it before, but honestly, the injuries to those two and Mike Wilks have been a real blessing as J.R. has played great at the back up point guard spot.  I read a quote from J.R. in the Denver Post where he said he loved playing point because he was always guarded by a smaller player.   

 - Remember how poorly the Nuggets ran the fast break in Washington when they tried running for pretty much the first time this season?  Well the rust is gone and it has been replaced by some shinny chrome.  They are pushing the pace and passing very efficiently.   

 - The Nuggets had 12 steals and only 11 turnovers.  They also had 13 steals against 17 turnovers against the Blazers and seven steals compared to 13 turnovers against Cleveland.  Those are impressive numbers.   

 - They also got back on track from long distance hitting 11 of 26 including 2-2 from Melo, 2-3 from Diawara and 3-6 from J.R.  Kleiza took 7 to make 2 and Bobby Jones was 0-2.  As you know I am not an NBA coach, but I think Jones has too much motion in the process of getting the ball in his shooting pocket.  

 - Utah is starting to come back to earth after a hot start.  They tend to be the opposite of the Nuggets where they get out of the gate quickly and then peter out a little.  As a result of Utah’s slacking the Nuggets are back in first with a 7-3 record. 

 - We still do not know how good this team is.  They are starting to blow out the teams that have no business hanging with them, but they still have not played a contender who they can really measure themselves against.

Game 4: Denver Nuggets 112 – New York Knicks 119

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I was ready to denounce the Nuggets’ lack of heart in a brief and biting post following the loss to the Knicks, but I have decided to rewatch the fourth quarter before handing out such harsh criticism.   

Here are the facts of the game.  The Nuggets were outscored by 17 points in the fourth quarter.  They were outrebounded by nine.  The Knicks missed 43 shots and ended up with 17 offensive rebounds.  That is a 38% rate. The Knicks shot 13 of 24 in the fourth quarter which is good not great.  They also missed six free throws.  Of those 17 shots where there was a chance for a rebound the Knicks corralled 10 of those rebounds.  Ten out of 17! 

Most of that time Camby and Nene were on the floor together until Nene fouled out with just over two minutes left.  As noted after game three, Nene is looking to be in better shape than he was just a week ago, but he was still worn out by the end of the game.  With no Kenyon Martin my number one question of the game is where was Steven Hunter?  He would have been fresh and would have helped out on the glass in the pivotal fourth quarter.   

After watching the replay, I am a little less frustrated, but maybe it is because I knew what was going to happen.  It was a one point game with under two minutes left.  However, this was a very disappointing result.   

You can talk all you want about how it is impossible to draw conclusions after three or four games, but when you have a trend over the past three seasons and you see the beginning of that trend in the fourth season, that is a good sign that the trend will continue. 

The Nuggets talk of winning 60 or even 55 games is starting to look hollow to me.  Can this team still win 50 games?  Sure.  Can they get home court advantage in the playoffs?  I will answer that question with another question.  How many wins will it take to finish in front of the Spurs, Suns, Mavs or Rockets?  Can they reach that total by losing games at home to New Orleans and against the Knicks?  If the Nuggets do not finish ahead of at least one of those teams, and add Utah to that mix as well, they are going on the road for the first round once again. 

Games like tonight are nearly must wins for the Nuggets to reach their stated goals. 

Other Observations from Game 4:

• Iverson finally had a breakout game.  He shot 13-22 and was the lone bright spot for the Nuggets offensively.   
• Melo was hounded by Renaldo Balkman and faced numerous double teams.  He had his second straight poor shooting game misfiring on 13 of his 20 shots.    
• Is Renaldo Balkman somehow related to the “Shoe Bomber” Richard Reid? 
• The Nuggets are not running.  AI is partly to blame as he jogs the ball up most of the time.  He played that way for over ten years in Philly so it is very difficult for him to transition to a fast paced transition offense.   
• The three point shooting watch continues.  The Nuggets were a respectable 6-16.  J.R. Smith hit a couple before missing two very difficult attempts towards the end of the game.  Melo only took one and missed.  AI only took two and made one.  Kleiza was 2-6 but two of his misses were right online, just a tad too long, which is good.  Najera banked his only try in, but utilized a shot fake from the perimeter to get past his man.     

The Nuggets head into Boston tomorrow and Boston has looked very good to start the season.  The Nuggets will have their work cut out for them, but if they can win tomorrow night in Boston, tonight’s game will not sting so badly.  But if they do go on to lose in Boston, the games in Washington, who will be desperate for a win, and Indy, who has been very impressive, will be crucial. Next Game:  Wednesday @ Boston Celtics – Anyone who discounts this team as a contender because of a lack of depth has not watched them play

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Punxsatawney Nuggets

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I better write some kind of training camp update or season preview or else I am going to lose my blogging license.  The Nuggets are fancying themselves as championship contenders.  Players are floating around the number 60 when talking about a potential win total for this team.  They are also talking like posting the best regular season record in the Nuggets NBA lifespan is a given which would require them to claim 55 victories in order to surpass the 54 wins earned by the 1987-1988 Nuggets. 

This kind of talk is not new.  Heading into each of the past three seasons we have heard that the Nuggets will fly past the 50 win mark.  So far, they have failed to do so in any of those seasons.  They were close after they rode the post all-star break wave in 2005 when they ended up with 49 wins.  They backslid the next season and landed on 44 wins, which was very disappointing considering the hot finish they had in 2005.   

Again, last season there was a 50 win buzz surrounding this team.  They then lost Kenyon Martin after two games and Nene was not fully healthy following his ACL surgery.  The Nuggets were finally getting in a winning groove when Isaiah ordered the code red and the Garden fracas went down.  They traded for AI who struggled to play with his new teammates and they promptly went on a losing streak.  When Carmelo Anthony returned, the team once again adjusted poorly.  All told from the time Carmelo was suspended on December 17^th through the end of March the Nuggets were 22-27.   

Heading into April they were 35-36 and in danger of missing the playoffs. 

However, they posted another late season winning streak notching 10 wins in their last 11 games.  Once again Nugget fans had hope heading into the playoffs, but once again they were facing the San Antonio Spurs.  They claimed a game one win in San Antonio as they had in 2005, providing even more hope to the Nuggets faithful.  It was all for naught though as the Spurs claimed each of the next four games to dispatch of the Nuggets just as they had in 2005. 

Things are starting to seem a bit like Ground Hog Day around here.  At the beginning of every season Nuggets fans wake up to the same talk.  Bill Murray was accosted with Sonny and Cher singing “I Got You Babe” but we hear the same platitudes every October about how Melo has matured (which he certainly has), they will have a full training camp to get familiar with the changes from the season before (which they will), they are healthy (only Anthony Carter is currently unable to practice) and ultimately at least fifty wins are a sure thing.   

Something always goes wrong.  Voshon Leonard goes down in the first game of the 2004 season and then the team quit on Jeff Bzdelik causing a slow start following their initial playoff berth in Melo’s rookie season.  Nene was injured on opening night in 2005 and they come out of the gate a little too full of themselves following their torrid finish to the previous season.  Martin ends up lost for the season after two games in 2006 and Melo and JR Smith get suspended in December.  

I wish I could get caught up in the optimistic outlook for this season, but at some point this team is going to have to prove it.  Sure they can get as hot as anyone, but the season is six months long and then the playoffs start.  Heading into this season I have to wonder who is going to get hurt this year?  What dynamic will be responsible for a slow start?  What part of the script will repeat itself that the Nuggets will have to overcome this time? 

This team is deep and talented.  They should win at least 50 games.  They should win the Northwest Division.  They should win a playoff series.  However, this team has not accomplished anything it should have in the previous three seasons.  Why should this one be any different? 

So put your little hand in mine,
there ain’t no hill or mountain we can’t climb… 

I got you babe.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.