Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

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What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

Game 22: Denver Nuggets 105 – New Orleans Hornets 99

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NBA.com Game Report (they give more indepth stats than ESPN.com, thus the switch)

Many times I can start writing this drivel during the game and have a good idea what the outcome of the game is going to be.  Not tonight.  It is early in the fourth quarter and I have no idea who is going to win this game.  The Hornets won a very similar game in Denver the third game of the season. 

The mistakes the Nuggets made tonight are as numerous as the empty seats at the Pepsi Center.  Think of a mistake and the Nuggets made it.  Poor rotation on defense, stagnant offense, questionable shot selection, lack of focus and an attitude of contentment if that is a word. 

It was proof over and over about how one player blowing his assignment can derail a team.  Almost every play in the second quarter could be used as an example, but I will mention a couple of gaffs I witnessed throughout the game.   

On one occasion Kenyon Martin was supposed to be guarding David West.  He ran down the floor alongside Paul seemingly happy to have the use of his legs.  I cannot say I blame Kenyon for enjoying the ability to run, but he still needs to do his job.  He continued to run with no apparent purpose into the lane absolutely clueless as to where his man was.  Well West was spotted up at the top of the circle.  Paul simply passed the ball to the wide open West who easily sank the jumper. 

On at least two occasions when playing zone Melo was pinned inside as Rasual Butler was left open in the corner.  Melo should know from his time at Syracuse, where he played zone exclusively, not to get pinned because if the outside baseline defender is pinned, no one can get to the corner.  It is a play that every high school coach in the country warns his players about.  However, I have noticed that many of those high school defensive fundamentals apparently have no place in the NBA. 

Anthony Carter took himself completely out of a play by not only running, but diving at the ball and sliding into the first row.  He is lucky he did not get a beer dumped on his head. 

Eduardo Najera was guarding Tyson Chandler about ten feet from the basket on the baseline.  All seemed well with the world, but when the shot went up he did not back into Chandler at all.  Najera stood there only a foot or two away from Chandler, who happens to be the number one offensive rebounder in the entire NBA, and when the rebound came off Chandler was able to get it.  Had Najera even just made contact with him Chandler could not have grabbed the rebound.  What is really strange is Najera is the kind of player who would box out his grandma if she dropped a donut.  It is almost second nature to him. 

However, the most embarrassing mistake came when Anthony Carter was called for a foul and proceeded to the bench even though the Nuggets had not subbed for him.  The Hornets, playing 5-4, scored an easy dunk on the other end.  Fortunately Anthony did report for the chance to score on the offensive end. 

I am probably reminding you of your wife right now remembering every little mistake and then refusing to let them go, but there was play after play where the Nuggets made little mistakes similar to those.  I am only listing a few that I remember.  It was a game that would have been fun to watch the film of together and laugh at all the silly goofs. 

However, in the end the Nuggets made a strong commitment and won the game because of their lock down D.  Anthony Carter, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby made it almost impossible for the Hornets to run their high pick and roll, which they ran almost exclusively in the fourth quarter.  Carter got up close and personal with Chris Paul who was the dominant player in the game for the first 42 minutes of action.  Kenyon and Camby jumped Paul coming off the screens aggressively and Carter quickly got back in Paul’s mug.  Paul had absolutely no room to operate.   

The play that I believe turned the tide happened with 4:28 left in the fourth quarter.  Camby jumped Paul on a screen and stole the ball.  Starting with that play Paul committed two turnovers and had the ball knocked away at least three other times.   

Camby also made the key play on offense tipping the ball twice before getting it in the hoop after Iverson took a bad three giving the Nuggets the lead for good at 101-99. 

Even though the Nuggets were expected to win tonight this game definitely goes into the category of a good win.  Melo was struggling mightily with his offensive game, they were playing sloppy on both ends of the floor and the Hornets were shooting very well.  Despite all of that the Nuggets persevered and earned their second impressive victory in three games (the other being at Dallas). 

Other Observations From Game 22:

 - I thought Melo played about as good a game as he had all season.  He was struggling like I had never seen him struggle with his offensive game.  I thought he definitely forced some shots in the first half, but he also made an effort to post up and drive to the basket.  Absolutely nothing was working for him.  In the past, he would have blown up and done something stupid.   

Instead, he decided to work his butt off on the offensive glass.  He ended up with four offensive rebounds, but was in the mix for probably about twice that number.   

His hard work was rewarded in the fourth quarter.  Anthony broke out his slump in a big way by going 5-7 from the floor and 4-4 from the line totaling 15 big points.   

Melo struggled with his shot for four games and the Nuggets were able to win three of those four games.  In the past when he was bad on offense, the Nuggets had no chance to win.   

 - Anthony Carter is slowly winning me over.  His defense on point guards is something the Nuggets need badly.  You should all know by now that I am no fan of Chucky Atkins.  The only benefit Atkins can bring is supposed to be outside shooting.  Atkins is only a 37% three point shooter, which is solid, but that small benefit is not worth giving him time over superior players.  Carter is not a good three point shooter, as I have pointed out previously he is a very good perimeter shooter from 20 feet and in.  You can stretch the floor from 20 feet just as easily as you can from 23′ 9″. 

 - I mentioned that the Nuggets made the mistake of contentment.  What I meant by that was they went on a 9-0 run to take the lead early in the third quarter.  After that they seemed to grow a little happy with themselves and they went on to fall back behind by nine not long after they took the lead. 

 - Iverson had another strong game.  He struggled with his shot in the second half, but still ended up shooting 8-16 and he ended up with 11 assists.   

 - I have to give George Karl credit tonight.  According to Julie Browman (believe it or not, people actually do internet searches for Julie Browman.  I know because some of them have found Born a Nuggets Fan by searching for her) Karl was repeatedly encouraging the Nuggets and pleading with them to work through their frustration.  He knew that Melo was exceedingly frustrated and the team was down double digits in the second quarter due largely to some of the weird mistakes they were making that I referenced earlier.  Karl knew what the team was feeling and he addressed it directly.  Now click here to proceed to FireGeorgeKarl.com.

 - The Nuggets are now tied for third in the Western Conference with New Orleans.  Teams such as Dallas, Utah and especially Houston are struggling.  If the Nuggets end up in the top four, it will be more because of teams stumbling than the Nuggets reaching that 55-60 win mark.  I will be very interested to see how they react to this recent success.  They play at San Antonio, who should have Tim Duncan back, next so the quality tests continue

For some insight on the game from the perspective of Hornets fans check out Hornets 24/7.

Game 3: Denver Nuggets 88 – New Orleans Hornets 93

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The Nuggets’ three point shooting outburst for 2007-2008 lasted exactly one game.  Since their impressive game one performance the Nuggets have shot 7-32.  That includes 2-7 from Melo, 3-10 from AI and 1-8 from Kleiza.  Najera can be an effective shooter when he is wide open and can take his time with his relatively long set up and shot, but against New Orleans he took two quick threes where he was somewhat closely guarded.   

In game number three it was a lack of offense that hurt the Nuggets other than a lack of defense.  They held the Hornets to 38.4% shooting, but only shot 36.7% themselves including 22.2% from long range.   

Even with the poor offensive showing, this game was winnable heading down the stretch.  To me the key portion of the game played out early in the fourth quarter.  In a thirty second stretch New Orleans was able to get back to back wide open threes from Bobby Jackson and Rasual Butler.   

Denver called a timeout as a two point game had suddenly became an eight point game.  

After the timeout, David West hit an open jumper, Najera rushed up one of his two missed threes, and soon after that Butler hit another wide open three pointer.  The Hornets had an 11 point lead and for all intents and purposes the game was over even though there was still over seven minutes left on the clock. 

It amazes me how the Nuggets get out of position so frequently.  They almost seem surprised to find that there is an opposing player sitting there wide open when a swing pass comes around resulting in a wide open three.  I realize when a team has a player that must be doubled you will get out of position when rotating, but the Hornets have no such player.   

Despite the fact that the deciding sequence of the game for the Nuggets was a result of lapses on the defensive end, the offense cost them the win.  We have heard since the Nuggets traded for AI that there would be easy shots abounding for everyone as no team will be able to cover AI and Melo at the same time.  Well, the Hornets did a pretty good job of it.   

They focused their efforts on Melo double teaming him quickly after he received the ball.  With the Nuggets unable to hit their threes, New Orleans packed everything in and cut down the interior passing lanes and driving lanes.  AI, who should have benefited from open shots because of the attention the Hornets placed on Melo, had a terrible shooting night.  He missed a handful of relatively easy shots the worst of which being a break away layup where he was completely unchallenged.  

The lack of offense falls directly on George Karl’s shoulders.  He has a team with one of the two best scorers in the league in Carmelo Anthony (who is only surpassed by Kobe Bryant at this point) and another very talented scorer in Iverson.  Iverson has slowed a tad, but he can still get in the lane almost at will.  There has to be a way to make this work. 

Other Observations from Game 3:

• K-Mart looks good.  He is effective the entire time he is on the floor.  He is rebounding, blocking shots and finishing around the basket.  If he can continue to build his strength, stamina and most importantly his confidence in his knees, he will be a great asset heading into the second half of the season. 

• Marcus Camby’s shot selection is killing me.  I will write more about that in an upcoming post.

• Melo was trying to force things a little too much when he was doubled.  There are basically three things a player can do when he is doubled.  Make his move before the double team arrives, let the double come, theoretically giving your team an advantage elsewhere on the floor, and pass out of it or try to beat it on your own. 

Most frequently Anthony received the ball in the post, awaited the double team and then either tried to fight through it or pass out of it.  On the couple of occasions he made his move before the double team arrived, he seemed to have the most success.  He was getting very good position either on the block or just outside of it and consistently had a smaller man guarding him.  A quick turn around jumper was his best tool against this defense, but he only used it on one or two occasions. 

• The Nuggets inability to run was perplexing.  The Hornets outscored them 22-11 on fast break points.  The Nuggets consistently fail at running at home.  They play at a quick pace getting a lot of possessions by shooting relatively early in the shot clock, but they do not play a fast breaking style that they need to in order to have a true home court advantage.
• Nene is already looking to be in better shape than he was in for game one.  He still has a ways to go though.

 Next Game:  Tuesday @ New York Knicks – The revenge for the brawl game

Game 2: Denver Nuggets 99 – Minnesota Timberwolves 91

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With two games down, we have seen two games where the Nuggets allowed an inferior team to hang around and hang around before putting the hammer down in the fourth quarter.  The Nuggets have started the season 2-0 for the first time since 1987. 

On one hand it is commendable that they have been able to take care of business when it matters to close out these games.  If they can indeed do that it will be an improvement over last year where they consistently lost games like these two.    

On the other hand, I was really hoping to see a new attitude in games like these this season.  The Nuggets could have dropped the hammer right off the bat.  They did take a good flurry from the Timberwolves who are a young team and came out with a lot of emotion to start the game.  The Nuggets found themselves down 20-6 early on, but as much credit should go to the Nuggets’ horrendous defense as to the Wolves execution. 

It is better to surge late than early as the Nuggets proved tonight, but we have yet to see this team play with focused effort for more than a couple of quarters each game.  They have gotten away with this so far, but if they cannot play more complete games it will come back to haunt them in their quest to earn home court advantage in the playoffs. 

Game Observations

• The three point barrage from game one was not seriously lacking tonight as the Nuggets shot 3-14.  Not good.  Kleiza was 0-3 and Najera did not shoot a three.  AI shot poorly from three again tonight until he hit one with just over thirty seconds left to seal the game. 
• Melo continued to shoot well from behind the arc until taking two bad threes in the second half.  He was 2-3 before missing his last two.  When he can catch and shoot in rhythm (I can never spell rhythm without using spell check) he has become a deadly three point shooter.  He hit a nice turn around jumper from about 17 feet with a hand in his face.  The three point shot and the turn around jumper in the post are the two offensive moves that I have believed Melo needed to master in order to go from a force to an absolutely unstoppable dominating performer. 
• Melo did have six turnovers, but part of that was due to the officials allowing Minnesota to hack away at him on several occasions.
• Speaking of the officials, from my point of view, and I do all I can to remain objective, they have been relatively consistent over the first two games.  There were only a couple of questionable calls so far.  Hopefully that trend will continue when the Nuggets start taking on the Spurs and Suns.
• Camby was incredible as he completely controlled the paint in the second half.  He ended up nabbing 21 rebounds and on several occasions he was able to deflect caroms to teammates.  He also passed the ball well and even hit the jumper from the top of the circle as the shot clock was running down.  He has a reputation for hitting that shot, but he really did not shoot very well from there last season and missed it a couple of times in game 1.

 The Nuggets are heading for their first early tests as they play 2-0 New Orleans at home on Sunday before heading on a five game eastern road trip which includes games at Boston and 2-0 Indiana.

Does the Lottery Need to be Fixed?

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Everyone is concerned with fixing the lottery and stopping tanking.  The point has been made that tanking has never proven to be an effective strategy.  Experience has shown that the likelihood of receiving the top pick is not greatly increased by finishing a couple of spots lower in the standings.  Case in point, which two teams tanked the most this season?  Boston and Milwaukee.  Where are they drafting?  Fifth and sixth. 

With the three worst teams by record missing out on the first three picks everyone is going to want to change the system.  Most people want to increase the chances of the worst teams winning the top pick.  Between the Grizzlies, Celtics and Bucks they had a combined probability of over 60% that one of them would end up with the first pick.  How much more likely does it need to be?  Also, the other eleven teams have to have some chance of winning or else it is not a lottery.

I have two ideas to change the lottery.  One idea is to eliminate some of the better teams from the lottery by only allowing the teams with the ten worst records.  If teams are still fighting for a playoff spot, they will probably not be thinking about losing games and sacrificing their playoff chances to get into the lottery.  Of course, teams will still want a chance at getting in the lottery and there will still be tanking by the teams that are on the fringe of getting in the lottery or getting left out, but it will not be a month long process. 

Using this year as an example, New Orleans and Los Angeles were in the playoff hunt until the last day or two of the season, and Indiana and Philadelphia were still in the hunt in the last week as well.  We could assume that every season there will be a couple of teams in each conference that will still be fighting for a playoff spot who end up on the outside looking in.  By making the lottery open to only ten teams the probability of a bad team winning increases.  We also do not have to worry about a borderline playoff team ending up with the number one pick, which is why the league went to the weighted system in the first place.  Lets just take the teams that no one wants to see win out of the equation altogether.

My second idea is to draw for the top two picks instead of the top three.  That way the team with the worst record is guaranteed at least a top three pick and the built in disincentive to tank that the lottery is supposed to provide remains intact.  With this idea the worst case scenario of picking third is better than the current worst case scenario of picking fourth. 

Ultimately, does the lottery really need to be changed?  It drew more attention this year because there were two franchise players to be had and everyone wanted a top two pick.  Some seasons there are two or three franchise players, some seasons there are none.  In the end, the lottery did its job and the teams that tried the most to end up with the top pick were left wondering how they ended up picking outside the top two. 

We will never be able to completely eliminate tanking unless the weighting teams chances based on record is eliminated and none of us want that.  Human nature will probably keep telling teams that even if it is not very likely for them to end up with the top pick, their chance are increased by losing games so they are selling themselves short if they do not do all they can to finish with as many ping pong balls as possible.

We just have to hope the lottery keeps doing its job and fate punishes the teams that do what they can to lose games down the stretch instead of win.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.