Game 34: Denver Nuggets 115 – Phoenix Suns 137

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

I need to throw something out there on the Nuggets effort against the Suns last night before you all give up on me.  I did not get to watch much of the game last night.  Tonight I was able to watch some of the recording of it, but not as closely as I would have liked.   

What I was hoping to see was that the Nuggets played well, but the Suns were just hot and there was nothing they could do. Well, the Suns were hot, but the Nuggets effort on defense was not what I had hoped to see, but then again, when is it?  They were constantly out of position in their transition D, even when they had the opportunity to get back after a made basket, which helped the Suns get out to an early lead.   

I thought Iverson and Carmelo played hard on offense, but the supporting cast did not offer much help.  Melo hit the boards as hard as he had in the last week or two and AI continued his offensive attack.   

Nene was very solid as he rebounded well and was able to score in the paint although it seemed like most of his points came late in the game against half hearted defense. 

I am not sure who would beat the Suns when Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion combine to make 12 threes(!), but the Nuggets made sure they had no chance to win because of their lax defense.  Even when the  Nuggets made a run to get it down to 11 or 12 points the Suns would hit a couple of threes and that would be that. 

I loathe excuses, but playing Phoenix on the road on the last game in a four games in five nights stretch is not an appealing situation to be in.  I think some of their indifference on defense could be attributed to the schedule even though it kills me to say that.

Other Observations From Game 34:

 - Martin looks like he is healthy again.

Check out the Bright Side of the Sun if you are looking for something from the Suns perspecitve.

Game 31: Denver Nuggets 80 – San Antonio Spurs 77

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

Down by four points with just 1:42 left in the game Nuggets fans were left wondering how on earth they let this one get away.  Through the first quarter and a half the Nuggets look as dominant as three legged man at a butt kicking contest, but they had apparently lost another tight game to the hated Spurs.   

Then Anthony Carter made a three to cut the Spurs lead to one, he then was credited with a steal from Duncan and made an assist to Kenyon Martin for what would prove to be the game winning shot. 

The Nuggets finished the game on am Anthony Carter fueled 7-0 run against the NBA champions to salvage a game that was practically a must win.  The Spurs were playing without Manu Ginobili, who based on his PER is the sixth most efficient player in the league, and the Nuggets were at home after three days of rest.  It can be misleading to draw conclusions from one game, but had they lost this one it would have been difficult to take the Nuggets seriously at this point in the season.   

The game did not have to be that close.  Almost five minutes into the second quarter the Nuggets were cruising with a 33-17 lead.  In less than five minutes the game was tied.  The question is how could things go from so good to so bad so quickly in the second quarter?  Look no further than the Nuggets’ offense and the Spurs defense. 

When the Nuggets went on their run to extend the lead to 16 they were getting layups and making free throws.  With that in mind look at the Nuggets’ possessions during the Spurs 19-3 run that saw them tie the score at 36. 

Turnover, turnover, Nene misses long jumper, Melo makes 1 of 2 free throws, blocked shot and a missed jumper by Melo, Kleiza misses a long three, Atkins misses a three, turnover, Kenyon misses a dunk, Kenyon misses a runner, Iverson makes a shot jumper and Iverson misses a jumper.   

During that sequence the Nuggets had two free throws and only two shots at the rim, one of which was blocked and the other missed.   

For the rest of the game the Nuggets played mostly one on one on offense and they struggled to score.  You have to give the Spurs credit, no matter who is on the floor they play great team defense.   

It is confounding to me why the Nuggets work so hard individually on offense instead of sharing the load.  Look at the personnel they have.  Carmelo is a very good passer, AI is a very good passer, Martin and Camby are good passers.  Nene is a good passer for a center.  Atkins and Carter are good passers.  If they will just work together on offense instead of trying to do things on their own they will be much more efficient and dangerous. 

I thought it was interesting after the game when AI said that the team is more than just he and Melo.  He pointed out that there are other good players on the team who can make shots, especially big shots.  It would be refreshing to see that attitude carried forward in the first 46 minutes and not just in the last one or two. 

I believe Iverson trusts his teammates, but I do not think he is used to playing with such good passers.  He does not have to dribble the ball for ten seconds to get a good shot and there are times where the Nuggets do play with great precision on offense.  They are just few and far between.  

Ultimately, this was a good game for the Nuggets.  They did what they had to do, played very good defense, especially in the first quarter and second half, and they beat the hated Spurs.  They bounce back and play Minnesota at on the road tonight.  I think most any Nugget fan has to fear a let down here.  This will be a good test of the team’s mental strength to see if they can get up to play the worst team in the league after defeating a rival the night before.  It is a test the Nuggets have failed many times before, but it is also a test they are very capable of passing. 

Other Observations From Game 31:

 - Martin is still not fully healthy.  It is clear that he is no where near as explosive as he was before he hurt his hamstring. 

 - How did Duncan only get credited with four turnovers?  Watching the game I expected him to have seven or eight.  He treated the ball like it was a worm.  He needed it to fish, but he did not really want to touch it. 

 - We have documented how much better of a shooter Anthony Carter is from 20 feet than 23’ 9” to unanimous consent.  Well, do not look now, but he is actually shooting 38% on the season from downtown.  Had he not hit that three with the Nuggets down four at the end of the game they do not win.  I am not saying he needs to shoot more threes, but for now, I am OK with him taking good threes.  At this point he is taking less than one three pointer every two games.  As long as he is judicious with when he takes it I am willing to let him shoot one every now and then.  Of course, even with his recent “hot streak,” he is still only a 14% marksman for his career from distance.  Anyone else out there fell like they could accomplish that feat? 

 - Another intriguing thing about Carter is he has proven to be able to hit big shots.  He won the double OT game against Houston and last night hit the big shot for the Nuggets again.  The question used to be who would take the big shots down the stretch Melo or AI.  The answer appears to be none of the above. 

 - Doesn’t it look like Martin and Nene love to play against Duncan, especially K-Mart?  When the Nuggets traded for Kenyon I was worried about his ability to guard the big power forwards in the west, Duncan being at the top of that list.  He has shown to be one of the best defenders that Duncan faces.  Kenyon loves to fight for position and hound Duncan all over the floor.  Kenyon is listed as two inches and 20 pounds lighter than Timmy, but he uses his strength and quickness to drive Duncan crazy.  Throw in Martin’s ability to knock the ball out of Duncan’s hands whenever he tries to turn and shoot and I bet Tim does not look forward to playing the Nuggets. 

 - I think it is interesting the way the Spurs use Bowen on defense.  I think Melo figured him out almost two years ago and the Spurs know it.  At this point guys like Finley and Ime Udoka guard Melo just as well as Bowen can.  Because of that, they put Bowen on AI and hope his extra height can bother Iverson.  They know that he will have plenty of help when AI drives and maybe Bruce can rough him up a little easier than he can Melo.  Last night it did not work.  Iverson shot 10-18 and kept the Nuggets in the game in the third quarter scoring nine of the team’s 18 points.  

 - Nene looked much better last night than he did against the Warriors on Sunday.  I am going to chalk that performance up to rust and hope he continues to get better and better as the season goes along. 

 - How badly did the Nuggets want to win this game?  I saw George Karl actually out of his seat in the fourth quarter. 

Check out Pounding the Rock for some insight into the game from the Spurs’ point of view.

Kiki a Net, DerMarr a Spur

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Former Nuggets are on the move.   

Kiki Vandeweghe has been hired by the New Jersey Nets to fill a front office role under Rod Thorn.  This is undoubtedly a case of Thorn paying Kiki back for not only taking Kenyon Martin off of the Nets hands, but also giving New Jersey three first round picks for the right to do so.   

Kiki did a tremendous job tearing apart a horrible team with a couple of huge contracts and rebuilding from scratch.  The Nuggets went from a laughingstock with no future to a perennial playoff team in just three seasons thanks to Kiki’s work.  He made a good trade that landed the Nuggets both Camby and Nene, knew when to sell high on Raef LaFrentz getting rid of Juwan Howard’s atrocious deal in the process, he avoided giving horrible contracts to the Anthony Goldwires and Tariq Abdul-Wahads of the world and when he did spend money he did it reasonably, for the most part, as he signed Andre Miller and Marcus Camby to flat contracts that did not include an exponential jump in value from year to year.  In fact, he was able to get them each to accept a reduction in salary in the second years of those contracts in order to maximize the Nuggets’ cap space that resulted in the sign and trade for K-Mart. 

Of course, that is not the entire story of the Vandeweghe era.  He made the aforementioned gaff of giving up three first round draft picks in the sign and trade for Martin.  That contract has become one of the worst deals in the league although to be fair no one had any idea Kenyon would need microfracture surgeries on both knees at this point in his career.  But we all knew the Nuggets overpaid for Martin both monetarily and in resources throwing in the three first rounders.   The Nets gave no indication that they would have matched an offer sheet and in fact what was coming out of New Jersey make it sound like they would definitely not match an offer sheet, which would have made Martin’s contract much more reasonable.  The offer sheet would have been for one less season with lower annual salaries.  However, Kiki gave up the three first round picks just to make sure he did not have to wait the 15 days the Nets had to match.   

Add in the fact that from everything I have read and heard Kiki would have drafted Darko ahead of Melo, he drafted Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Ricky Sanchez and he drafted Nene ahead of Amare Stoudemire. Throw that all in a pot and mix it together and you see a GM who basically deconstructed a team, spent the team’s cap space somewhat responsibly and misappropriated a handful of draft picks.   

That record is spotty at best. 

Kiki put the Nuggets back on the map, but some of his decisions also kept them from reaching their final destination.  Kiki was never afraid to do something controversial, but it is difficult to know if that is ego (I will show everyone how smart I am) or intestinal fortitude.   

I cannot wait to see how the Thron/Vadeweghe administration handles the many issues that are facing the Nets.  Maybe Thorn brought Kiki on board to help him deconstruct the mess that he has made. 

In other news DerMarr Johnson has been signed by the San Antonio Spurs.  I always liked DerMarr as a ninth or tenth man.  He seemed to be a solid defender when he challenged himself to be and was an effective shooter from the corner.  During the Nuggets amazing second half run in the 04-05 season it seemed like DerMarr was automatic form the corner, especially in the first quarter, after which many of their games had already been decided. 

However, last season his three point percentage dropped from 35% down to 22% and without giving a consistent effort on defense, rebounding or passing he essentially lost all of his value. 

It will be interesting to see if he can get on the floor for San Antonio.  Free Agent signee Ime Udoka can not seem to get off the bench and he is a consistent defender and a solid shooter from that corner spot.  The Spurs seem to keep their fifteenth spot on the roster in constant flux.  DerMarr may not be around for very long.

Game 30: Denver Nuggets 95 – Golden State Warriors 105

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score

There was one major difference between the first game against Golden State and tonight’s game.  I will give you two different sets of numbers.   

23-43 

and 

10-29 

In the previous game against the Warriors the Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson combined to shoot 23-43.  Tonight they combined to shoot 10-29.  That’s umm, not so good. 

It was mentioned in my last post and in the comments section that the Nuggets offense the other night in Oakland was based far too much on isolation sets.  When Melo and AI are hitting their shots and attacking the rim that type of offense in a fast paced game can produce 124 points.  When even only one of them has a good game it results in 95 points.  I would hate to see what would have happened if Melo had shot as poorly as Iverson. 

Even on possessions where the Nuggets moved and passed the ball, which were about as common as a svelte Samoan, they just were not in sync.  It may have just been one of those nights or part of the reason for their discombobulation on offense when they actually tried to run something may have been because they had no idea how to do anything more complex than pass to AI or Melo and clear out. 

Another difference between the two games was the Warriors inability to hit threes in the fourth quarter in the first game (going 2-11 from behind the arc) and their more restrained attitude in the fourth quarter in this game (2-4).  Golden State did a great job of slowing the pace down and playing under control in the fourth quarter. 

The Nuggets lost some of the positive momentum they had built up tonight.  Nene looked rusty for the first time since returning from injury and Kenyon Martin’s strain looks to be worse than expected as he has missed the past two games.  Instead of being healthy and on a roll heading into their next game, which happens to be against the World Champion San Antonio Spurs, they are unsure about Martin and they are not playing a style that will translate into success against such a strong defensive team. 

Other Observations From Game 30: 

 - I mentioned Nene looked rusty, but it was not all his fault.  The Nuggets did not do a good job of hitting him when he was open under the basket and there were occasions when he did have the ball that their spacing was so poor he had no room to operate.   

He was also the biggest mismatch on both ends of the floor finding himself guarding players like Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson and being guarded by Barnes or other smaller players.  He failed to take advantage of his mismatch when the Nuggets had the ball, but Golden State did not make the same mistake.   

 - Both teams shot poorly, but the Nuggets compounded their shooting woes by turning the ball over 24 times.  When a team is shooting poorly, you cannot afford to give that many possessions away.  Denver did grab 19 offensive rebounds, but part of that is a factor of how many shot they missed, which happened to be 55! 

 - The pattern for the quarter by quarter pace factor we tracked in Golden State was repeated tonight.  The pace factor of the first quarter was 116, the second quarter it was 106.  Things picked up in the third quarter as it increased to 110, but in the fourth quarter the pace factor dropped down to 94.   

 - The downside of getting a lot of steals is he exposes his teammates to being undermanned by running out of the play.  The other downside of overplaying the passing lane like he does is he is susceptible to backdoor cuts.  Monta Ellis did a great job of making those backdoor cuts, but fortunately the Warriors did not really look to take advantage of those situations. 

 - I thought the Nuggets did a good job of trying to run, even after made baskets.  They ended up with only 11 fast break points, but had they not pushed the pace like they did, they may not have scored any more than 80 points. 

 -  Do not look know, but the Blazers won their 13^th straight game tonight and are now tied for first in the Northwest Division.  Can someone please beat Portland! 

Once again check out Golden State of Mind for some thoughts from the Warriors’ side of things.

Game 29: Denver Nuggets 124 – Golden State Warriors 120

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

What happens when two teams who are both in the top three in scoring and pace factor play each other?   

Fast breaks.  Lotsa’ threes.  Points.  Fun. 

Going into the game it was clear that the Nuggets faced a stern test.  Golden State has gone 8-1 at home since Stephen Jackson returned from his suspension for pretending he was the star in an action movie during the off season.  Golden State is a great offensive team because they create matchup problems all over the floor.  They usually have four players who are capable and willing three point shooters and there are several sequences during every game where all five players on the court are ready and able to pop the three.  Then to take that advantage to a higher level they push the pace relentlessly.   

They also have a big man in Andris Biedrins who does a great job of cutting to the basket both off of pick and rolls and from the weak side.  Biedrins has great hands and is a very good finisher around the hoop.   

Add in good isolation players like Barron Davis, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson (who is more crafty than quick) and the only way to shut these guys down is to pray for a power outage.   

The offenses (and defenses) of both teams did not disappoint.  After the first possession of the fourth quarter both teams were already over 100 points.   

Thanks to NBA League Pass and the fact that the Warriors play a lot of late games due to society’s insistence to use time zones I have seen a lot of Golden State games over the past couple of years.  When playing at home the Warriors have a tendency of ramping up their defense in the fourth quarter.  They ride the emotion from their great crowds and play with great intensity.  Free flowing games end up grinding to a halt as they milk the clock and rely on Baron Davis to create shots for himself or his teammates late in the shot clock. 

With this in mind I was very worried about the Nuggets’ ability to keep up with the Warriors when Melo was called for his fifth foul early in the fourth quarter.  Allen Iverson came to the rescue as he so frequently has in the past couple of weeks.  He singlehandedly kept the Nuggets in the lead through the fourth quarter. 

Even after Melo returned Iverson was the man that carried the load.   AI did a great job of forcing contact and getting to the line.  He found himself frequently matched up with players such as Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson.  It is easy for quick players in those situations to settle for long pull up jumpers.  Iverson continually attacked them and that resulted in eight fourth quarter free throws.   

In the end Stephen Jackson had his chance to make love to pressure as he claims he is wont to do, but pressure had a headache, rolled over and turned out the light as his three pointer that would have put the Warriors up one in the closing seconds caromed off the rim.  Now we all can say we know how it feels to be an NBA player. 

I thought the Nuggets played another focused game from start to finish.  We have seen them string together two and a half consistently good efforts in a row starting at half time of the Kings game.  They have done that a couple of times so far this season only to go on a stretch of maddeningly inconsistent games. 

The schedule takes them home to play Golden State on Sunday and then they get a long rest before facing the Spurs on Thursday.  I think you will see the Nuggets put forth good efforts in those games and hopefully run their record up to 20-11.   After that they go on the road to face the horrid Timberwolves and as we all know, that is probably a big warning sign for Nugget fans. 

Other Observations From Game 29: 

 - I mentioned pace factor earlier in the post.  Pace factor is simply how many possessions a team averages over the course of a game.  Denver is first in pace factor at 103.  Golden State is third at 100.9.  Obviously the pace of tonight’s game would make Lance Armstrong wishing he was about to head into the Andes with his little ten speed.   

I charted the pace quarter by quarter and extrapolated it out to what that quarter’s pace would be if it was carried out throughout an entire game.  Here is what I found out: 

First quarter pace factor = 118

Second quarter pace factor = 104

Third quarter pace factor = 100

Fourth quarter pace factor = 92 

Earlier I mentioned how the Warriors like to make things as crazy as possible through three quarters and then try to buckle down in the fourth.  These numbers bear that out.  Both teams scored over 30 points in each of the first three quarters.  In the fourth quarter Golden State outscored Denver 23-22.   

I find it interesting that both teams that are known to push the pace are content to play a much more half court style when the game is on the line.   

 - This was a tough game for Nene.  You would expect him to be able to dominate in the paint against a smaller Warrior squad, but Golden State is used to having teams try to pound the ball in side and they are very adept at swarming around and making life difficult on bigger post players.   

The Warriors are also good at exposing bigger players when they are on offense.  Both Camby and Nene found themselves in foul trouble partially due to unsuccessfully trying to draw charges against quicker players.  Actually the unsuccessful part could be up for debate.  It kind of seemed like the Warriors got all the borderline, and not so borderline charge/block calls, but why complain about things like that after a win, right?   

 - It was also a bad game for Najera to have to start in place of Kenyon Martin.  Najera is not a post player capable of taking advantage of his extra girth on offense and he was too slow to keep up with Matt Barnes and Al Harrington.  If Martin can play on Sunday, it will help the Nuggets with that matchup problem. 

 - Melo missed a lot of time in the second half with foul trouble and we talked about how Iverson took care of the fourth quarter, but Linas Kleiza did a very good job to keep them in the game in the third when Melo was on the pine.  Kleiza actually scored the last 11 points of the third quarter for the Nuggets. 

Melo only scored six points in the second half, but the Nuggets still managed to score 53.  Iverson scored 21 of those and Kleiza and Camby came up big to help fill in some of the slack.  Anthony Carter hit a shot with just over seven minutes left in the third quarter and after that the only Nuggets to score were Iverson, Kleiza, Camby and Melo.  That attack was about as diverse as a KKK rally.   

 - The Nuggets may have won the game at the foul line as they shot 33-37 for the game.  Iverson, Melo and Kleiza were 29-31 from the line.   

 - At one point Altitude missed ten seconds of game time and what was described as a long two by Stephen Jackson after repeatedly showing a charge called against Carmelo.  We saw it, OK!  We know it was a charge!  We know he should have either pulled up or passed it!  Show the fricking game! 

 - By the way, Microsoft Word in all of its contempt for humanity suggests I change fricking to frisking or frocking.  I may take them up on frocking.  That sounds kind of naughty.  

 - The Nuggets were not as stationary as they have been in the past on offense, but their offense was definitely comprised of mostly isolation plays.  They ended up with only 13 assists on 43 makes.  That is usually a deadly ratio for the Nuggets.  The offense was helped by the fact that Golden State did not have anyone who matches up well with either AI or Carmelo and they were able to create quality shots on their own.   

That style of offense is fine when AI and Melo are shooting a combined 23-43, but if one of them had an off night things would have been much different. 

 - If you will permit me let’s look at a basic box score stat one more time.  The Nuggets scored 124 points while only being credited with six fast break points.  How is that possible?  Typically if they end up with six fast break points they would end the game with 78 points or something similarly insipid.   

 - I am always impressed with the Warriors unselfishness from the perimeter.  They frequently make an extra-extra pass.  Many times you see them swing the ball around the three point line and when they have the shot most teams take and most defenses are designed to have a player running at the shooter on the rotation, they throw the ball one more time to a player that the defense is completely unprepared to guard and instead of having a defender run at them, they have a completely open shot.   

 - J.R. Smith played very well.  He played eight minutes and took four shots, but none of them were threes.  He drove to the rim at every opportunity and from what I saw only made one late rotation on defense. 

 - I liked the breakdown of minutes amongst the point guards.  Anthony Carter played 27 minutes and Chucky Atkins played 21.  I have no problem with Atkins playing 20 minutes in the role of a sniper and the only Nugget who seems to be able to pass the ball to the roller on a pick and roll.   

While we are here, I know he is one of the premiere scorers of all time, but has anyone ever explained to Iverson that the pick and roll is not just designed to get him a shot.  Can one of the Nuggets plethora of assistant coaches please inform him that there actually is another option on the play? 

To partake of some insight from the Warrior’s perspective, and to see one of the absolute best blogging communities around, check out Golden State of Mind.  Just try not to be too disappointed with Born a Nuggets Fan when you come back.

Game 28: Denver Nuggets 125 – Milwaukee Bucks 105

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score

The only way you can get away with using injures as an excuse is playing like the Nuggets did tonight once everyone gets healthy.  With all apologies to Steven Hunter at this point we are going to proclaim the Nuggets at full strength. 

Time will tell if this was the Nuggets coming out party or if it was just a combo of a hot night by the Nuggets combined with a nightmare game by the Bucks.   Because the competition was somewhat lacking tonight we cannot draw any strong conclusions from what we saw, but we can celebrate the many things the Nuggets have done correctly: 

They shared the ball on offense and actually moved without the ball as well.  Those two things go hand in hand and they made the Nuggets offense nearly unstoppable.   

I do not have the stats in front of me to prove it, but I am going to guess the Bucks are not one of the better rebounding teams in the league.  That allowed the Nuggets to run out on almost every possession resulting in a ridiculous 44 fast break points. 

Nene.  I left a comment after the article on the Denver Post’s website reporting that Nene and Kenyon Martin would play tonight stating that we had better see the well conditioned version of Nene tonight.  Well, Nene looked about as good as Bo Derek in “10” right down to the cornrows.  He played with energy and was very productive.  Welcome back Nene! 

Carmelo is still hitting the glass.  He notched a fourth consecutive double digit rebound game nabbing exactly ten.  He has taken it personally that even his teammates question his desire to fight for rebounds.  There is no reason he cannot average 8+ rebounds every night.  The five or so he has been producing is an insult to basketball. 

It was good to see Iverson heat back up.  After a couple of rough shooting outings AI made some good decisions with the ball and took only good shots.      

Their defense was solid but not spectacular as the Bucks missed quite a few open shots in the first half, but the Nuggets had 13 steals and 11 blocked shots (ten by Marcus as he earned a triple double when he splashed a trey to give him his ten points on the first possession of the fourth quarter) and they outrebounded the Bucks by 11. 

As those numbers would lead you to believe, the Nuggets were very aggressive on defense and they harassed the Bucks into playing at a pace that was much quicker than they are accustomed to.  The Nuggets lead the league in pace factor at 102.9 and the Bucks are the eighth slowest team at 92.8. 

The Nuggets played as well as they could ever be expected to play.  I have been on them for allowing themselves to slip mentally a little because of the injuries they have dealt with.  If that mindset was really there, look for them to begin playing with more confidence and urgency now that they are healthy again.  They know this is their time to make a move.   

It is a great time to get healthy as the Nuggets face three stern tests in a row with a home and home against Golden State and then a clash with the Spurs.  If they can play as focused in those three games as they did tonight, there is no reason they cannot sweep those three games and establish themselves as one of the true contenders in the West. 

Other Observations From Game 28:

 - Why on earth was Iverson in the game in the fourth quarter?  He played over 36 minutes and was in the game for four minutes of the fourth quarter.  Why?  Are we trying to prove to the world that his age is not catching up with him?  Is there some language in his contract that he must play at least 40 minutes every game?  If so I want that same contract at work, I want to work 40 minutes every day.  Of course, some days I that would require to increase the time I spend actually working at work. 

 - I may be giving the Nuggets too much credit.  I should take some credit for myself.  I had an HDTV installed in my bedroom this afternoon and it may be the presence of the fancy technology that pushed the Nuggets to a higher level.  Of course, I may have to take it back because my wife wanted to get the couches reupholstered so it is a situation that bears monitoring. 

 - I know it is difficult to play disciplined in a blowout where the ball is switching sides of the court almost as quickly as a tennis match, but J.R. Smith needs to take show that he can play under control and smart no matter what is going on around him on the floor.  I thought he played very well, but there were plays where he made poor decisions.  I really like when he is on the floor because he really is a well rounded player, when he is playing smart ball.  He is a very good passer, he can drive and he has shown a willingness to work hard on defense, he just needs to hone his mental focus.  If he wants to earn more minutes, he needs to remain controlled even in the chaotic fourth quarters that go down during a blow out. 

 - Michael Redd and Bobby Simmons were both -30 for the game.  That is not good.  Melo led the Nuggets with a +26.   

Check out Brew Hoop for some attempt at making sense of this game from the Bucks’ perspective.

Game 26: Denver Nuggets 96 – Portland Trailblazers 99

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

It is a shame that I failed to put together a post on last nights’ game until now.  Last night I was as proud of the effort the Nuggets put forth as I have been in a long time.   

I have said that injuries should not be used as an excuse to lose games, but the Nuggets rolled into Portland and had to start a player they had waived just a day before.  That is typically not a precursor to success.  With Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Nene and that Steven Hunter dude (I have heard plays for the Nuggets, but I am not really sure he exists he might as well be Kramer’s friend Bob Sacamano or Seinfeld’s Cousin Jeffrey) all out with various maladies the Nuggets locked horns with a team that had demolish them on the boards just a week or so prior.   

If there was a recipe for disaster, that is probably it.   

The Nuggets hung tough on the glass thanks to another tremendous effort on the glass by Carmelo Anthony who was the leading rebounder in the game with 12.   

They played tremendous scrappy defense and if it was not for a hot streak where the Trailblazers scored 14 points in less than four minutes to start the fourth quarter the Nuggets would have won.   

But the Trailblazers have had ten straight games where they have produced a similar hot streak to pull out win after win.   

There were comments made after the game that the Nuggets found what it took to play all out for 48 minutes and if they can just carry that forward they will be very successful.  Well, this small lineup that brought that level of intensity had shown that they were capable of such an effort in the second week of the season and for some reason George Karl went away from that lineup.   

When you have a strong second five, but your starters are playing too many minutes, that is not good.  Everyone talks about how Iverson can play as many minutes as you can throw at him night after night because he keeps scoring, but the issue with him playing so many minutes is his defense.  Late in the game against Houston Luther Head drove by AI on a couple of occasions where AI could barely move.  The man needs some rest, whether he wants to admit it or not.   

Bobby Jones may never put up great stats and probably leads the league in charges per minute, but he makes things happen.  With Jones able to play the two for 15-20 minutes a game there is no reason AI should play more than 35 or at most 38 minutes a game.  That will preserve him and allow him to play those big minutes in the playoffs and it will let Jones gain some much needed experience.   

If Melo is going to work as hard on the glass as he had the past few games he is going to need more rest too.  Against Portland he missed two dunks he would usually smash and at the end of the game he was so spent that he had a turnaround blocked by Brandon Roy who is not the most dynamic athlete.  Obviously last night Melo and AI needed to play a ton to keep the Nuggets in the game, but I would love to see Karl reduce their minutes. 

Anyway, I am getting away from my primary point and that was to give the Nuggets a great deal of credit for playing hard, and for the most part smart.  They hung with the hottest team in the NBA on the road the night after a double overtime game without their entire roster of power forwards and centers.  They could not have done that without a supreme effort.   

Once again the question regarding this incredibly inconsistent team is can they reproduce the way they played against Portland in the next game or even ever again?

Check out Blazer’s Edge for some insight from the Portland side of things.

Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

The Potential Problems With an Iverson Extension

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There is a report in the Denver Post today that Allen Iverson wants to opt out of the final year of his contract at the end of this season and sign an extension, a six year extension, with the Nuggets.   

This may sound like great news.  The chance to lock Iverson up and make it highly likely that he retires a Denver Nugget is very appealing.  However, as much as I love AI this is not the slam dunk decision it may seem to be for the Nuggets. 

If Iverson resigns for anywhere near his value the Nuggets will be locked into their current core of players for the near future.  For example, let’s assume that Iverson signs a three year extension for $10 million a season, which I believe is highly conservative considering the he is making over $19 million this season.  For the next two seasons the Nuggets will be over or close to the salary cap with just Carmelo, Marcus Camby, Nene, Kenyon Martin and AI.  The third season of Iverson’s hypothetical deal Camby comes off the books, but they will still have Melo, Nene, Martin and AI in high priced deals.  Look at that core of players.  Carmelo is the only player in that group that has been able to stay consistently healthy and is not past his prime.  Would you trust them to be contenders in 2009-2010?  I do not think I would. 

The other problem that rises if you keep this core together for the next three seasons is there will be very little to work with to add quality players to the roster.  The Nuggets will be a good team, but probably not a great team.  If they cannot win a title with this group this year or next year, they will most likely begin to decline due to age.  Camby will be 34 by the end of this season and Iverson will turn 33 during this season’s playoffs.   

Can we rely on them into and past their mid 30’s?  If the Nuggets extend Iverson at the end of the year, they will have to.  The only move they have available to them would be to trade Camby’s expiring deal at the trading deadline in 2010.   

If Iverson is extended, the Nuggets’ brass better be pretty darn certain that they can win a title with this current group.  Otherwise they will waste between a quarter and a third of Melo’s prime seasons with a team that while good, it will probably not be great. 

I had been hoping that the Nuggets could assess whether or not this team was a title contender as next season progressed.  If they were not legitimate contenders, then they had Iverson’s $20 million expiring contract to make a deal to acquire some new pieces.   

However, that scenario was never very realistic.  Every player anywhere near Iverson’s abilities wants to know they have an extension ready before they reach the end of their current contract.  Should Iverson opt out the Nuggets are going to have to make a very difficult decision after this season.  Do they sign him and lock that core of players listed above in Denver for the next two or three years, do they let Iverson walk or do they try to pull off a sign and trade? 

I already expressed my concerns with resigning AI and obviously just letting Iverson walk would be a horrible decision.  The Nuggets would still be well over the cap and they would not be able to add a player of Iverson’s caliber to replace him.  Picture the core listed above without AI.  That would be the reality for the next two seasons.  Not a pretty picture. 

The Nuggets best option may be to sign and trade him, but only if they can get a good young player in exchange for him.  Who would that player be?  I have no idea.  As good as AI is, I do not think there would be very many teams calling the Nuggets to work something out.  Maybe the best bet would be an expiring deal and lottery pick.  You can see what a tough predicament they will find themselves in. 

The Nuggets made a very big gamble trading for Iverson.  I still think it was the best deal they could have made and it was a deal they should have made.  As I wrote previously, this is the first time as an NBA team the Nuggets have been considered at least borderline contenders.  But the bill may come due for that gamble as early as July of 2008 and once again the Nuggets could face a very important crossroad for the development of the franchise. 

In my mind this is just one more reason this team should be playing with more urgency than they are this season.  Their best shot at a title is probably right here and right now.

An Open Letter to More Optimistic Nuggets Fans Than Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Disco left a comment after my post for the Miami game.  He brings up some good points and I wanted to make sure that everyone saw it because it displays a more optimistic side of things for the Nuggets and may very well prove to be accurate when contrasted to my more pessimistic view of what may transpire for the rest of the season.  It is definitely a good conversation starter and I think we could have some good discussion regarding these issues.   

Here is Disco’s comment:

Assuming GK/AI/Melo/Camby are ok with losing anything is silly. These are some of the most competitive guys in the NBA we are talking about. Most people assume Karl is fine with losing because he made this comment… but what would you have him do? Call out Melo/AI in the press? Right…thats gonna make the team better. I think you have greatly misjudged the psychological makeup of this team. This team thinks they can beat any team on any night…which is why they get lazy. They do not think its ‘OK to lose this one’.

In addition, its silly to extrapolate a season worth of games from the first month ESPECIALLY with this team. I think we all agree this team has not hit its stride yet.

These are all good points, but I tend to disagree with what he said so here is an open letter to optimistic Nuggets fans everywhere addressing the comment left by Disco: 

I can see and appreciate where you are coming from.  It is possible that I am being too hard on the Nuggets, or further still, completely wrong.  But it is obvious to me that this team is not making the obvious changes that are necessary to succeed consistently on the court.  That is a mental issue that this team has.  You are right that they are not in the locker room before a game saying to one another, “We can afford to lose tonight.”  It is a more subtle subconscious process that is allowed to fester by Karl himself using the excuse of injuries or Camby using the excuse of playing five back to back sets of games to rationalize poor performances.   

I wrote that I did not want to hear one player or coach use injuries, or anything else, as an excuse for why they lose because it fosters that defeatist mindset.  As soon as someone allows themselves to think that they lost because of injuries, it becomes an acceptable reason for the team as a whole to underperform.  The Nuggets, specifically Karl, let that happen. 

As far as their competitiveness, I agree that Camby and especially Iverson are competitive.  Melo is competitive, but he is no where near the level of Iverson.  I actually think Melo is a frontrunner where he is great when they are scoring a lot of points and things are going his way, but when things start to go bad, he gets frustrated and if that frustration festers for too long he becomes a detriment to the team.  His shot selection becomes atrocious and he starts pouting.   

Karl is much more difficult to read.  I know he was a very passionate player and coach when he was younger, but we do not see that much anymore.  I wrote a couple of days ago that he is clearly trying not to grate on his players as he used to.  He definitely makes a point of not calling his guys out in the papers, but none of us have any idea what he says to them behind closed doors.  He may be doing all he can, but I do not get the sense from him that every loss just eats him up inside.   

Ultimately with this team the problem is not having enough competitors who do not want to lose, but how that competitiveness manifests itself when the other team makes a run and how they react when they are not playing well.  I think Iverson is by far the most competitive player on the team.  I believe every loss hurts him and more than anything he wants to win a championship.  He gives it his all every night and will never stop fighting, but he is only one guy. 

I have also seen a downside of that super competitive nature that Iverson possesses in how it impacts the way he plays.  We all know that this team is at its best when they are playing some semblance of defense, running the floor and moving without the ball on offense.  When Iverson senses things are going bad and that hatred of losing boils to the surface, he becomes even more of a one on one player.  Ultimately, he relies on himself to carry the team out of it and usually that only exacerbates the issues on offense.   

When a game starts slipping away I want to see AI, Camby and Melo call everyone together and get on the same page.  Demand that everyone shares the ball and moves on offense.  Demand that they all start gritting it out on defense.  Remember together that they play their best when they play as a team and not as individuals.    

Instead, when things start to go bad we see Melo jacking up more and more contested jumpers and AI over dribbling.  The result of which is things seem to go downhill even more quickly.  At this point that attitude I wrote about comes in where the excuses they use to dismiss poor play impact their acceptance of what is happening on the court.  Again, I am not saying it is a purposeful decision, but a reason to let the flood of momentum overwhelm them.  Their effort becomes hollow.   

The best example of this was the game against the Clippers in Los Angeles.  On several occasions they were only down four in the second half, but they never gave me the slightest inkling of belief that they would get any closer.  After the game I wrote that it was the most insurmountable small third quarter lead I had ever seen.   

That game happened to be the second half of a back to back and they were playing without Nene, Chucky Atkins, Anthony Carter and Steven Hunter.  To top it off Linas Kleiza was injured in the second half as well.  Mentally they completely mailed in the second half.  It was pathetic.  Is it a coincidence that those excuses they site so readily were present in that game?  I do not think so.  Somewhere in their minds they decided that with all the obstacles they were facing that game was one that they could let go of.   

Instead of pulling together and fighting back when things get tight, they let a 17 point lead against the Lakers turn into a 28 point blowout, a nine point lead against an undermanned Clipper team turn into an inexplicable 11 point loss.  They have had one game all year where things were not going their way and yet they fought back to win against a decent team and that was the game in Indiana where we know Karl gave them a good thrashing at halftime.  They have come back to win games against Seattle and twice against Minnesota, but those were against the two worst teams in the league.  I do not think that is much to get excited about, but to be fair it does merit mentioning. 

Based on what I have seen, I have to question this team’s mindset and attitude heading into games.  I have to wonder why they allow themselves to play four horrible games in a row without showing the slightest interest in changing the things that they know they need to do better in order to win.  The very fact that they make excuses about injuries and schedules when those things do not prevent them from moving without the ball or taking good shots or rallying their teammates to change how they are playing shows where there mind is.  How else can you explain what we have seen the first month of the season?  This is a veteran team that should not have to keep learning the same lessons over and over again. 

You bring up another good point that has bugged me for the past three years.  They have a very arrogant attitude about themselves.  They do get lazy against poor teams and they lose important games because of it.  I do not believe the reason is because they know that they can beat anyone at anytime.  I believe it is because they think they are good enough to just show up and win.  That is a ridiculous attitude to have for a team that has not accomplished anything together. 

Concerning the projected record I put together, I was merely working with what they have done this season and their performance in previous seasons to develop what kind of pace they were on.  I am not saying it is etched in stone that they will be 50-32.  I think I used sound arguments for how I came up with that number.  Can they win 55 games?  Sure, but it seems unlikely.  Have they hit their stride yet?  You are correct in saying they have not.  One of the points I have tried to drive home though is that the schedule gets much more difficult.  Look at what they have in store for them in March.  They will have to play much better than they have to this point just to win seven or eight games that month. 

I do have very strong reservations about this team.  I may be wrong and I may be misreading their mindset, but I do not know how else to interpret the indifference, inconsistency and lack of urgency I see from them.  I hope I am wrong and they can begin playing consistently great basketball.  They definitely have the ability to do so.   

It really makes me worry that they know they need home court advantage and a favorable playoff matchup to have a good chance to advance in the playoffs, but their play has not reflected that belief.  November was a month to prove that they were a team to be taken seriously and get a lead on many of their competitors and they failed to do that.   

I would like to thank Disco for posting his comment as well as all of you who take the time to share you thoughts.  I truly appreciate all of you who chose to read this blog.   

I think this can be a good starting point for more discussion so please leave your thoughts below.  Am I completely wrong?  Do we need to give the Nuggets more time?  I am looking forward to what everyone thinks about the state of the Nuggets at this point in the season. 

Try to Keep From Injuring Yourself While Reading This Post

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

If you play for the Nuggets, and if you are reading this I am guessing you do not, you might want to be very careful.  Hold onto the railing going up and down stairs, do not ride any horses, stay away from stray dogs, do not play with knives and do not walk under any pianos being hoisted up outside a building that are hanging over the sidewalk.  

The injury bug is at work.  You cannot exterminate this type of bug and you can never be sure how and when it will get you. 

The latest news is Steven Hunter is going under the knife due to “right knee inflammation.”   

That makes four Nuggets (Anthony Carter, one of my all time favorite receivers by the way, Chucky Atkins the aforementioned Nene and now Hunter) that will not be available for the next game Saturday against the Knicks.  Throw in Wilks’ gimpy hammy, Najera’s consistent assortment of ailments and Camby’s constant potential for missing a couple of games here and there and that list is in danger of growing.   

To this point, I have not been concerned about the guys that have missed games and honestly, I still am not very concerned with the news on Hunter.   

In fact I actually believe the Nuggets are a better team without guys like Atkins and Carter than they are with them.  First of all, their injuries have allowed J.R. Smith to grow as a player and secondly, for one of them to play a better player will have to come out of the game. 

Another silver lining is Nene’s injury has forced the Nuggets to find out what Kenyon Martin is capable of.  At this point, he has been up to the task.  If Nene was playing right now the Nuggets would still be limiting Martin’s minutes.   

However, despite all that optimistic spin one more significant injury and I will go from unconcerned to slightly panicky.   The only other player that could get injured and not cause issues on the court is Von Wafer.  Nothing against Wafer, I think he is a nice player, but the Nuggets could go on without him if they had to.   

At this point the injuries are merely an inconvenience that may impact the Nuggets’ ability to have competitive practices.  As I have pointed out, this is a very easy portion of the schedule for the Nuggets.  They are better off with these injuries popping up now than in March.   

Let’s all keep our fingers crossed and hope that is the end of it and the injury bug gets squashed by a janitor or some heavy machinery. 

On second thought, Nuggets players should refrain from crossing their fingers.  I do not want anyone to tear a tendon or ligament.

How Not to Run the Pick and Roll

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

It is time for me to share my thoughts on the failings of the Nuggets’ pick and roll game.  The idea for this came to me during a certain blow out loss during the Eastern Conference road swing the Nuggets completed last weekend.   

When the pick and roll is run correctly, it can be the premise for a team’s entire offense.  It creates an instant advantage for the offense and forces the defense to either surrender an open shot or to scramble to cover their disadvantage, which creates an advantage for the offensive team somewhere. 

On the other hand, when a pick and roll is executed poorly it not only is frustrating, it makes the team look very inept.  Unfortunately for the Nuggets they have looked inept running the pick and roll for much of the season.  We are talking Britney-Spears-as-a-mother inept or Billy-King-as-a-GM inept. 

Most of the breakdowns on the pick and roll have come from one or more of the following four problems. 

1.  Spacing – The Nuggets seem to have two predominant sets for the pick and roll.  One set involves the power forward setting a screen for Melo or AI and the other has Melo setting a screen for AI with the majority of the Nuggets screen and roll action involve the first instance with the power forward screening for AI.   

Watch what happens after the run the pick and roll in this situation.  Usually the rolling player will not get nearly enough space from the location the pick was made and where AI is driving off of the pick.   

The other issue is there have been times where they have run a side pick and roll with a third player posting (or standing doing absolutely nothing) on the same side as the pick and roll.  There is absolutely no room for anyone to maneuver in that set.  They seem to have gotten better at this.  

Nene is horrible at rolling.  If you do not believe me, I guess you will have to trust me for the next five weeks until you can notice for yourself.  When he sets a screen for AI he basically rolls right next to him creating a traffic jam.  In one instance against Boston Nene rolled right along side AI and they both basically ran into a third Nugget player who was standing on the block.  How many defenders do you think it took to guard that?  I bet the Celtics could have stopped that play with zero defenders allowing their five players to cover the other two Nuggets like Jackie Christie covers Doug. 

The best “roller” on the team, also known as the anti-Nene, is Kenyon Martin.  Martin does a great job of setting stone wall picks, gets wide and moves away from the path of the player driving off the pick and then cuts strong to the basket.  He not only ensures the ball handler separation from his defender, but he also provides a very nice passing lane.  If he receives the pass, he takes it strong at the rim.  If you are a young player who would like to see how to properly run the pick and roll, watch Kenyon Martin.   

I think that is the first time I have ever encouraged anyone, especially youngsters, to emulate K-Mart. 

2.  Shot Selection – Even in a poorly run pick and roll the ball handler usually has at least a slight opening with which to operate.  I have already lamented the Nuggets propensity to take shots after one pass or less in the half court.  This is a big reason why.  Whether it is AI, Melo or even J.R. Smith from time to time, they all see that gap to get off a shot and they just attack.  I like their aggressive attitude, but many times they take a difficult shot because they think to themselves, “I have an advantage, I have to exploit it.”   

The problem is not that they are entirely ineffective.  In fact, AI can usually either get off a decent shot or get fouled, but when the pass the ball around and make the defense work they almost always get a great shot opportunity.  This goes back to the defensive conundrum that a good pick and roll creates.  As they collapse on the player with the ball, they open up new weaknesses in their defense.  Frequently another couple of passes can create a wide open layup or dunk instead of a contested one. 

A new advantage for the Nuggets is now that they (apparently or as Jim Rome would say, allegedly) have a stable of three point shooters they can kick a pass to the opposite baseline and defenses will have to charge the shooter.  That will allow them to swing the ball around and get a wide open seam on the side of the floor where the pick and roll originated.  Watch any team play and notice how many times they get an open jumper or layup when the ball is swung form side to side one or more times.  The Nuggets themselves did a great job of this in the second quarter in Washington. 

3.  Dribbling Away From the Screen – One of the tactics that has been successful in the pick and roll game is to set your man up as if you are going to run him through the screen, then dribbling away form the screen.  This is great tactic when the defender is set up correctly and they are either already fighting through the screen or are at least leaning into it.   

Watch how many times Iverson dribbles away from the screen without setting the defender up first.  This can be a very effective tactic, but only if the offensive player sets his man up.  If you do not set up your man it is like me wasting all my free time writing posts for this blog.  Useless.  

4.  Not Taking Advantage of the Rules – My primary assumption heading into this study was that the Nuggets were not taking advantage of how the league officiates screens.  How many illegal screens do you see set in the NBA?  Now think about how many illegal screens you see called in the NBA?  The bottom line is the NBA allows offensive players to set moving screens and surprise ninja secret attack screens. The Nuggets have not adapted their techniques to take advantage of the leeway that offensive players are granted. 

The best weapon a pick and roll offense has in the NBA is the surprise ninja sneak attack high screen.  We see this all the time now where the ball handler is in the middle of the floor above the three point line and a teammate runs up to set a pick almost directly behind the defender.  They slightly shift to one buttock of the defender and as the defender begins to lean that way they quickly jump to the other buttock.  (I am not trying to be gross, just describe how the screener is almost directly behind the defender and shifts every so slightly at the last second.  If you have watched NBA basketball at all the last couple of years, you have seen this numerous times every game.)  This is technically a completely illegal tactic, but the referees continue to allow it.   

Eduardo Najera is the only Nugget who does a decent job of this type of pick.  Martin never does it, but he does such a great job of setting legal picks I think we can let him off the hook.  

Other Screening Observations That Are Neither Here Nor There: 

 - There is one more issue that stands out to me with the problem of the pick and roll.  It is not an issue with the Denver offense as much as it is the defense.  

I think the Nuggets appear to run the pick and roll so poorly on offense because they guard it relatively poorly on defense.  When you see the other team constantly getting open looks and the Nuggets taking contested shots it seems like the other team is doing a better job on offense.  The reality is most teams’ big men do a much better job of jumping the screen and obstructing the dribbler than the Nuggets do.  Marcus Camby does an especially egregious job of failing to stop the ball handler on pick and rolls.   

 - The Celtics did a great job of running a player off of consecutive picks either along the wing or across the top of the circle.  I have noticed the Nuggets implementing this a little since that game. 

 - Nene’s rookie season he was able to pilfer several steals from point guards by jumping the high pick and roll, surprising the point guard with his size and quickness and then poking the ball away for a steal.  Sadly, this is no longer part of his game.  His draft weight was listed at 253.  ESPN lists Nene at 268 and the Nuggets roster page on NBA.com says 250!  I am guessing he is on the high side of 280.  That may have something to do with his lack of quickness.

 - If you have read this far you deserve some kind of prize.  I only wish I had one to give out.  In fact, send me an email (BornANuggetsFan @ gmail.com without spaces of course) with the phrase “What the American Public doesn’t know is what makes them the American public” and you will be recognized as Born A Nuggets Fan Reader of the Month.  Just be sure to include your name or nickname and hometown in the email. 

If you can name the movie that quote is from, you can even write your own post if you want.

Game 7: Denver Nuggets 113 – Indiana Pacers 106

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

How many of us wrote the Nuggets off at half time of this game?  It looked so much like the Boston game, or the game that we dare not speak of (that I cannot seem to stop mentioning).  Hot shooting team scoring at will combined with a lackadaisical effort on defense.  There were definite flashbacks. 

In this game, I have to give credit to George Karl.  He was certainly not sitting on his hands this game.   

Karl tried a lot of different things on defense hoping to stumble across something that would slow down the Pacers.  To start the game Diawara guarded Tinsley and Martin was on O’Neal.  That did not work because AI could not handle Dunleavy and Camby could not deal with the perimeter game of Murphy. He then brought in Kleiza for Diawara and Klieza was not able to handle the red hot Dunleavy either.  Next, he went to some three quarter court pressure and trapping which was defeated with even more hot shooting.  Finally Karl tried a zone, which was picked apart with nice interior passes and of course, more hot shooting.   

None of these defenses were effective and at the end of the first half the Nuggets were down big yet again. 

In the second half Karl made one last adjustment.  They decided that the issue on defense was not the scheme, it was the lack of focus.  They played straight up the rest of the night.  They did not double O’Neal the few times he received the ball in the post.  They did not try to out think themselves by mixing up the defensive matchups.  They just buckled down and played tough defense.  

That increased effort and determination working hand in hand with the law of averages, which dictated there was no way the Pacers could shoot anywhere nearly as well as they did in the first half, resulted in an impressive comeback by the Nuggets. 

Indiana set a franchise record for points in a quarter with 46, yes, you read that correctly, 46 first quarter points.  They followed that up with 28 points in the second quarter.  After all of that the Nuggets held them to only 32 points in the entire second half. 

Linas Kleiza was great tonight.  He had at least four or five defensive rebounds in the first half.  He hit a couple of timely threes.  His defense was shaky, especially in the first quarter, but he more than made up for it on offense.  The most important thing was that he played hard the entire time he was on the court.   

The offense was still somewhat stagnant, during the comeback.  It was a 180 degree difference than the night before in Washington, but the lack of movement and passing was overcome by some clutch shot making and the increased effort on defense.  

One interesting development was the comeback was actually triggered by Yakhouba Diawara.  He scored eight unanswered points, including two threes, in a minute and a half early in the third quarter.   I have mentioned Kleiza, Najera and Bobby Jones providing a boost from Downtown, but the Nugget leading the team in three point shooting right now is Diawara.  After hitting 3-4 against Indiana, he has made 10-21 on the season with comes out to 47.6%.   

This is the most surprising turn of events for the Nuggets so far this season.  Diawara shot less than 29% from Steve Kerr land last season.  I really cannot fathom how it was even that high.  He was absolutely horrible.  If my kids life depended on it I would rather have had a blind quadriplegic shoot a three pointer than Diawara last season.  Well, maybe the quadriplegic would have to be able to see, but I definitely would not have trusted Diawara. 

If Kuba can somehow keep this up the Nuggets seem to have finally thrown together a quality three point shooting team.  Melo, Kleiza, AI, Kuba, Najera, J.R. Smith and Von Wafer are all solid to good three point shooters.  Atkins has a good career percentage as well.  This is a very good development.   

Other observations from game 7: 

• The Nuggets have done a great job, especially against Washington, in getting defensive deflections resulting in a high number of steals. 
• Steven Hunter who?  So much for Hunter getting some run with Nene out.  Karl has gone with Najera and Martin playing center and Martin, Najera and Kleiza playing power forward.  I cannot complain.  Hunter is a good player, but with the teams they have played, size has not been an issue.  The only player of any girth that the Nuggets have seen was Brendan Haywood and he only played 20 minutes.  Cleveland is up next and Camby will be able to handle Ilgauskas while he is on the floor.
• One thing to take into account is neither Washington nor Indiana double teamed Carmelo until it was too late.  The Nuggets have struggled offensively to score when Melo is strenuously doubled.  Apparently they do not have game tape of the past few Nuggets games in DC and Indy.
• It was also encouraging that the Nuggets were able to put this kind of effort into a second half after playing the night before and on the last day of a road trip. 

I have been hard on the Nuggets, and this little two game winning streak is good, but they still have a long way to go to prove that they are approaching each game with a sense of urgency.

 Update:  Correction, Diawara is not leading the Nuggets in three point percentage.  It is actually Bobby Jones who has shot 5-8 good for 67.5%.  Sorry for the misinformation.  I will do my best to be more careful in the future.

Kenyon Must Play

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Nene is out and K-Mart is in. Well, I guess Martin was already in, but now the Nuggets have no choice.  Martin has worked hard to get back form his second microfracture surgery and has looked good in limited minutes. Now that Nene has hurt his thumb (no truth to the rumor it was hurt after being stuck up his bum for the majority of his time on the court during the Celtics game) Martin has to play in both ends of the back to back this weekend.

Martin believes he is ready for it.  The team now has no choice to believe him.   

The good news is an injured thumb will not prevent Nene from working to return to the level of conditioning he was at by the end of the season last year. 

Good luck Kenyon.  May your knees match your inner strength and determination and hold up as your minutes are increased.

Update:  Nene is out for six weeks with a torn ulner collateral ligament, who of us have not have had problems with our ulner collateral ligament? 

Nene has only averaged 19.4 minutes in the first five games, but it is a bigger loss than the minutes would reflect.  The Nuggets were hoping to slowly build those minutes up throughout November.  The primary characteristic of Nene’s game the Nuggets will miss most is his post offense.  Now Melo is the Nuggets’ sole source of post offense. 

The Nuggets will have to count on Steven Hunter to back up Camby at center and they can absorb Nene’s minutes at power forward by using Martin and Najera.  Melo and Kleiza are also capable of playing a few minutes at power forward here and there too if it becomes necessary.  The Nuggets should be able to push the pace with any of those players on the floor.  Nene used to run the floor as well as any big man in all of basketball, but with the extra weight he has been carrying around, he is no longer a force on the break.

I do believe there is a silver lining to this injury though.  As mentioned above, Nene will have plenty of time to get into shape.  He can run sprints all day long with a bandaged thumb.

Paging Mr. Hunter.  Please prepare to report to the scorer’s table Mr. Hunter. 

Game 4: Denver Nuggets 112 – New York Knicks 119

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I was ready to denounce the Nuggets’ lack of heart in a brief and biting post following the loss to the Knicks, but I have decided to rewatch the fourth quarter before handing out such harsh criticism.   

Here are the facts of the game.  The Nuggets were outscored by 17 points in the fourth quarter.  They were outrebounded by nine.  The Knicks missed 43 shots and ended up with 17 offensive rebounds.  That is a 38% rate. The Knicks shot 13 of 24 in the fourth quarter which is good not great.  They also missed six free throws.  Of those 17 shots where there was a chance for a rebound the Knicks corralled 10 of those rebounds.  Ten out of 17! 

Most of that time Camby and Nene were on the floor together until Nene fouled out with just over two minutes left.  As noted after game three, Nene is looking to be in better shape than he was just a week ago, but he was still worn out by the end of the game.  With no Kenyon Martin my number one question of the game is where was Steven Hunter?  He would have been fresh and would have helped out on the glass in the pivotal fourth quarter.   

After watching the replay, I am a little less frustrated, but maybe it is because I knew what was going to happen.  It was a one point game with under two minutes left.  However, this was a very disappointing result.   

You can talk all you want about how it is impossible to draw conclusions after three or four games, but when you have a trend over the past three seasons and you see the beginning of that trend in the fourth season, that is a good sign that the trend will continue. 

The Nuggets talk of winning 60 or even 55 games is starting to look hollow to me.  Can this team still win 50 games?  Sure.  Can they get home court advantage in the playoffs?  I will answer that question with another question.  How many wins will it take to finish in front of the Spurs, Suns, Mavs or Rockets?  Can they reach that total by losing games at home to New Orleans and against the Knicks?  If the Nuggets do not finish ahead of at least one of those teams, and add Utah to that mix as well, they are going on the road for the first round once again. 

Games like tonight are nearly must wins for the Nuggets to reach their stated goals. 

Other Observations from Game 4:

• Iverson finally had a breakout game.  He shot 13-22 and was the lone bright spot for the Nuggets offensively.   
• Melo was hounded by Renaldo Balkman and faced numerous double teams.  He had his second straight poor shooting game misfiring on 13 of his 20 shots.    
• Is Renaldo Balkman somehow related to the “Shoe Bomber” Richard Reid? 
• The Nuggets are not running.  AI is partly to blame as he jogs the ball up most of the time.  He played that way for over ten years in Philly so it is very difficult for him to transition to a fast paced transition offense.   
• The three point shooting watch continues.  The Nuggets were a respectable 6-16.  J.R. Smith hit a couple before missing two very difficult attempts towards the end of the game.  Melo only took one and missed.  AI only took two and made one.  Kleiza was 2-6 but two of his misses were right online, just a tad too long, which is good.  Najera banked his only try in, but utilized a shot fake from the perimeter to get past his man.     

The Nuggets head into Boston tomorrow and Boston has looked very good to start the season.  The Nuggets will have their work cut out for them, but if they can win tomorrow night in Boston, tonight’s game will not sting so badly.  But if they do go on to lose in Boston, the games in Washington, who will be desperate for a win, and Indy, who has been very impressive, will be crucial. Next Game:  Wednesday @ Boston Celtics – Anyone who discounts this team as a contender because of a lack of depth has not watched them play

Game 3: Denver Nuggets 88 – New Orleans Hornets 93

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The Nuggets’ three point shooting outburst for 2007-2008 lasted exactly one game.  Since their impressive game one performance the Nuggets have shot 7-32.  That includes 2-7 from Melo, 3-10 from AI and 1-8 from Kleiza.  Najera can be an effective shooter when he is wide open and can take his time with his relatively long set up and shot, but against New Orleans he took two quick threes where he was somewhat closely guarded.   

In game number three it was a lack of offense that hurt the Nuggets other than a lack of defense.  They held the Hornets to 38.4% shooting, but only shot 36.7% themselves including 22.2% from long range.   

Even with the poor offensive showing, this game was winnable heading down the stretch.  To me the key portion of the game played out early in the fourth quarter.  In a thirty second stretch New Orleans was able to get back to back wide open threes from Bobby Jackson and Rasual Butler.   

Denver called a timeout as a two point game had suddenly became an eight point game.  

After the timeout, David West hit an open jumper, Najera rushed up one of his two missed threes, and soon after that Butler hit another wide open three pointer.  The Hornets had an 11 point lead and for all intents and purposes the game was over even though there was still over seven minutes left on the clock. 

It amazes me how the Nuggets get out of position so frequently.  They almost seem surprised to find that there is an opposing player sitting there wide open when a swing pass comes around resulting in a wide open three.  I realize when a team has a player that must be doubled you will get out of position when rotating, but the Hornets have no such player.   

Despite the fact that the deciding sequence of the game for the Nuggets was a result of lapses on the defensive end, the offense cost them the win.  We have heard since the Nuggets traded for AI that there would be easy shots abounding for everyone as no team will be able to cover AI and Melo at the same time.  Well, the Hornets did a pretty good job of it.   

They focused their efforts on Melo double teaming him quickly after he received the ball.  With the Nuggets unable to hit their threes, New Orleans packed everything in and cut down the interior passing lanes and driving lanes.  AI, who should have benefited from open shots because of the attention the Hornets placed on Melo, had a terrible shooting night.  He missed a handful of relatively easy shots the worst of which being a break away layup where he was completely unchallenged.  

The lack of offense falls directly on George Karl’s shoulders.  He has a team with one of the two best scorers in the league in Carmelo Anthony (who is only surpassed by Kobe Bryant at this point) and another very talented scorer in Iverson.  Iverson has slowed a tad, but he can still get in the lane almost at will.  There has to be a way to make this work. 

Other Observations from Game 3:

• K-Mart looks good.  He is effective the entire time he is on the floor.  He is rebounding, blocking shots and finishing around the basket.  If he can continue to build his strength, stamina and most importantly his confidence in his knees, he will be a great asset heading into the second half of the season. 

• Marcus Camby’s shot selection is killing me.  I will write more about that in an upcoming post.

• Melo was trying to force things a little too much when he was doubled.  There are basically three things a player can do when he is doubled.  Make his move before the double team arrives, let the double come, theoretically giving your team an advantage elsewhere on the floor, and pass out of it or try to beat it on your own. 

Most frequently Anthony received the ball in the post, awaited the double team and then either tried to fight through it or pass out of it.  On the couple of occasions he made his move before the double team arrived, he seemed to have the most success.  He was getting very good position either on the block or just outside of it and consistently had a smaller man guarding him.  A quick turn around jumper was his best tool against this defense, but he only used it on one or two occasions. 

• The Nuggets inability to run was perplexing.  The Hornets outscored them 22-11 on fast break points.  The Nuggets consistently fail at running at home.  They play at a quick pace getting a lot of possessions by shooting relatively early in the shot clock, but they do not play a fast breaking style that they need to in order to have a true home court advantage.
• Nene is already looking to be in better shape than he was in for game one.  He still has a ways to go though.

 Next Game:  Tuesday @ New York Knicks – The revenge for the brawl game

Game 1: Denver Nuggets 120 – Seattle Supersonics 103

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What was looking to be a relatively disappointing season opener for the Denver Nuggets suddenly exploded into an example of the type of play that the Nuggets will have to sustain throughout the regular season and playoffs for the season to meet the lofty expectations that have been placed on them. 

The Achilles heel for this team over the previous four seasons has been three point shooting.  Well, three point shooting was actually a strength of the Nuggets tonight as their superlative shot making from behind the arc actually blew the game open in the fourth quarter.   

The Nuggets hit 11 threes in 27 attempts even though they missed their last four attempts after the game had been decided.  During the 42 minutes or so the outcome of the game was in doubt, they were 11 for 23.   

I tabbed Linas Kleiza as the player that the Nuggets needed to become the Robert Horry type unheralded role player who could make the big play, or big shot, when the Nuggets needed it.   

Tonight was a great step in that direction.  Linas hit five of his first seven threes including three straight in the fourth quarter to help seal the outcome.  The first Kleiza three of the quarter made it a two possession game as it put the Nuggets up six with just under 11 minutes left in the game.  His next one put the Nuggets up double digits with seven and a half minutes left.  The third put the game away less than a minute later.   

Eduardo Najera made 2 of 3 three pointers he attempted as well.  Before the 06-07 season Najera was hitting threes in practice, but he was never able to bring that part of his game to the court during the regular season.  He has continued to work on it and now has the green light to shoot threes.  If he can keep his confidence up, he should be effective throughout the season. 

Melo was also able to hit his threes.  I mentioned that he had shown a greatly improved shot from downtown at the end of last season.  Tonight he showed that it may not have been a fluke.  Melo hit three of his first four threes before missing his last two.  When Melo sets himself and does not rush it or force the shot, he is very consistent from deep.  His last two misses were somewhat forced and were basically heat checks.  If he can avoid those types of rushed threes, I believe he can be a 40% three point shooter for the season.  However, he has such a scoring mindset, I do not think he can keep from taking those heat check threes after he makes a couple. 

Other thoughts on game one of the 07-08 season:

• AI was very good except for a stretch in the middle of the third quarter where he forced his shot a little too much going 0-4 with two turnovers.  He was very good at attacking the basket and scoring as well as kicking out to open shooters.  I doubt the Nuggets will lose many games where AI has double digit assists.  In fact, the Nuggets are now 12-1 when he does so.
• The defensive focus is still not there.  I do not understand why NBA players cannot understand the basic principle of see man and see ball at the same time.  It is not that difficult to get in position to see what the man with the ball is doing and also know if your man is cutting to the basket at the same time.  On a couple of occasions Seattle players were able to sneak into the paint for an easy layup with no Nugget defender having any idea what was happening.  This is the type of defensive lapse that good teams do not have.
• Nene is absolutely out of shape.  There were rumors going around that Nene was in the same great shape that he was in to close out last year.  I was somewhat skeptical of that since he has been hampered by a calf strain since the Tournament of the Americas, but since the media reported it, I believed it.  I should know better. 
• K-Mart is back, but he is not the old K-Mart.  He played very well in limited minutes, but he does not have the same explosive lift he used to.  Of course, there is no way that he should after two microfracture surgeries.  He still is a tremendous leaper, but not quite at the level he used to be.  He has proven in the preseason and tonight that he can still be very effective and he has still maintained enough of his athleticism that he does not need to alter his game.
• Nuggets fans will have to get used to seeing runs made by both the Nuggets and their opponents.  On at least two occasions the Nuggets were able to take a ten point lead only to see the Sonics charge back and reclaim the lead.  Because of the pace the Nuggets play at they can make spurts, but they are also susceptible to giving up spurts.  The Suns have the same problem.
• Durant played at the level that most everyone expected.  He is still struggling to adjust to the NBA game, but he showed that he can score in a variety of ways.  He is settling for his jumper too often, but as we have seen with Melo, it is so easy for these guys to take a relatively open 20 footer that it takes time for them to learn to pass on that shot and drive or keep the ball moving.  Durant is absolutely going to be amazing.  I expect him to post numbers very similar to what Carmelo did his rookie year with his points per game average surging as the season goes on.

 Congratulations to the Nuggets on a win to open the regular season that will hopefully kick start them on their way to that 14-3 start I am hoping for. 

Worthless fact:
The Nuggets have made 11 three pointers in their past two regular season games dating back to the last game of the 06-07 season in San Antonio. 

Contenders? That is a First for Me

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I have been a die hard Nuggets fan since the mid 1980s (maybe not quite from the time I was out of the womb) and during that time the Nuggets have never been trumpeted as potential world champs heading into the season.  There have been a few nice teams over the years, and a lot of poor ones, but at no time have the Nuggets been considered anything more than a potential playoff team.   

That is until now. 

I have already gone on record to say that this team will have to show me that they are going to produce at an exceptional level before I believe they actually will.  However, they do have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.  That is a fact.  In the Carmelo Era they have not been able to run with the Suns nor have they been able to plod it out against the Spurs or Mavs.  This year may be different and here is why: 

Healthy Bigs – The Nuggets have not had both Kenyon Martin and Nene available at the same time for the past two seasons.  Both can run the floor, both can guard Tim Duncan, both can pass and both can play at the same time.  Obviously, there is no guarantee that these two will stay healthy and both of them will have their minutes monitored to start the season.  As long they can stay healthy they will make for a strong and versatile front court along with Marcus Camby who can also run the floor and pass very well. 

Melo Still Surging – Carmelo Anthony made another leap forward in his development as a player the first part of last season.  That was derailed by the suspension for the brawl with the pathetic Knicks.  Melo has become more and more efficient as a scorer and he continues to develop as evidenced by his performance in the Tournament of the Americas.   

He is a very complete offensive player, but he has three weaknesses.  He settles for too many midrange jumpers.  He can make them though and if he can make them at the rate he did in Las Vegas this summer, this may not be a weakness after all.  Second, he gets his shot blocked frequently in the paint.  Melo is an explosive leaper when he is on the move move, but when it comes to launching himself at the rim after being flat footed in the paint, he is not so dynamic.  Lastly, he insists on shooting threes.  Melo cranked them up at a rate of 2.3 three point attempts a game last season.  That is ridiculous considering he is barely more than a 25% shooter from there.  Perhaps there is a silver lining to this cloud as well.  Over the last month of the season and against the Spurs in the playoffs Melo starting hitting his threes.  He shot 21-46 from behind the arc.  Do the math and that is a rate of 46%.  Melo is not going to become Jason Kapono, but if he can hit threes at a 35% rate, or better, he can help answer some of the constant concerns that follow the Nuggets regarding outside shooting.  He has the form to be a good shooter so this is not an unlikely scenario. 

There is no reason not to believe Melo will not make another stride ahead in his development this season which is great news for the Nuggets. 

Road Warriors – The Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins last season and finished with better than a .500 record at 22-19.  This is a team of veterans and they should be tough to rattle on the road.  There is no reason not to expect this group to build on last season’s success. 

Roll out the Role Player – Another area the Nuggets have fallen short the past few seasons of the Melo Era is they have not had that one role player who is capable of driving the stake in Dracula’s heart.  The Spurs have Horry who is always ready to make a big block or hit the big shot.  The Nuggets need a player like that, but is just such a performer on this roster?  The most likely player to grow into that role is Linas Kleiza.  He is developing a solid three point shot and has a knack for being at the right place ar the right time.  A secondary candidate may be Bobby Jones who has been running some with the first team in practices and has shown a quality three point stroke in the preseason.   

No Cruising – The Nuggets have not put a great deal of emphasis on the regular season.  They do want to win their division, but that is no longer a guarantee of having a playoff series with home court advantage against a lesser team.  They realize that a big key to getting out of the first round is avoiding the Spurs.  In order to do that they know they cannot cruise through stretches in the schedule.  Teams that earn home court advantage and the right to play the Lakers and Grizzlies of the world in the first round do not take games off.  I think the Nuggets recognize this and will put a new sense of urgency into the regular season. 

What does it all mean though?  Again, I have heard all the right things coming from Nuggets’ players the past two or three seasons in training camp, but when the season starts expectations are rarely met.  If the Nuggets have truly learned from the past few seasons and they are ready to validate that potential NBA champion label that some have affixed on them, we should know right off the bat.   

This team has been plagued by slow starts the past three seasons.  I believe we will know if the Nuggets are for real by the end of November.  This team has a legitimate shot to start off in the 13-4 or even 14-3 range.  They do not play San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas or Utah and only play the Rockets once during that stretch.  However, if we are looking at another 10-7 start, I am afraid that it will be more of the same for Nuggets fans in 2007-2008.    

That would be very disappointing for the first season in my life where the Nuggets are considered to be championship contenders. 

Bags Packed and Questions Answered

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I need something to divert my attention away from counting down the minutes to the Rockies first World Series appearance later tonight.  There has been a plethora of Nuggets news this afternoon so it is time for another post. 

First of all the Nuggets have waived five players to get down to 14.  A couple of the departures were mild surprises.   Predictably the Nuggets parted ways with Stacey Augmon and Brad Stricker.  Mike Wilks was shown the door just a couple of days after he was signed.  Anthony Roberson was the first somewhat surprising name.  With the uncertainty at point it might have made sense to keep him around until Anthony Carter was healthy.  Roberson put up good numbers and was the quickest point guard on the roster.   

The name that was a borderline shock to me was Jelani McCoy.  McCoy had proven to be a good rebounder and shot blocker.  As a third string center, behind Camby and Steven Hunter, he was a nice player.  I realize that some teams like carrying only 14 players so that they can add someone whenever they feel like it, but with Nene and Kenyon coming off of injuries and facing limited minutes and Najera seemingly constantly banged up why not hang onto another big body to fill in some potential gaps?   

If the Nuggets have their eye on someone else to fill in that fifteenth spot it may be Jamaal Sampson was just waived by Dallas.  I believed the Nuggets brought McCoy in as a cheap replacement for Sampson.  Now that Sampson has been waived, perhaps he can be a cheap replacement for himself.   

The other news that caught my eye was some questions posed by none other than Coach George Karl himself in an interview.  I believe I know the answers to some of these questions so let’s give it a shot. 

Question #1 – “I don’t know who’s going to be the starters on my team.” 

Answer #1 – OK, so that was actually a statement, but just roll with me.  Opening night starters should be AI, Bobby Jones, Melo, Nene and Camby.  This group was running together during training camp and I like the Jones has been shooting the ball.  He made only one of nine three point attempts, but so far in the preseason he has been shooting the ball very well.  I realize it is just the preseason, but let’s give him a chance to prove himself.  He plays solid defense and is a good passer.  Maybe he is a hidden gem that can be the difference between a good team and a great team.  Who knows? 

Those should be the opening night starters George so there you go. 

Question #2 – “I don’t know how we’re going to play the ‘four’ position, with Kenyon being limited minutes, and Nene will probably be on limited minutes early.” 

Answer #2 – Kenyon and Nene can play at least twenty minutes a piece.  Eduardo is perfectly capable of playing another twenty.  That is 60 minutes of playing for a 48 minute game.  Also, Kleiza has been practicing at the four and Melo is capable of sliding over for short stretches.  Camby and Hunter can play together in a big frontcourt.  Even if Kenyon and Nene can only go 15 minutes each, there are still plenty of options.  My vote is for Najera to fill in the relatively small blanks. 

Question #3 – Not Knowing even the backup (shooting guard/small forward) right now, because Bobby Jones has moved up the ladder.  J.R. (Smith) obviously won’t play for the first three games.” 

Answer #3 – OK, so maybe the question gimmick was not the best ideas as Karl was making statements, but he is definitely stating that he does not know what he is going to do and that is the point.  Anyway, Bobby Jones and Melo are going to start as shown in question #1.  That makes the back up small forward Linus Kleiza.  Von Wafer is the best candidate to fill in behind Jones and depending on how he does J.R. Smith may be relegated to the bench once again.  Wafer has been streaky in camp, but is very capable of hitting open threes which should be available in large quantities.  Once again, if Jones and Wafer play twenty minutes each, that leaves just a handful of minutes for AI to swing over to the two and they will not need to worry about Yakhouba Diawara ending up on the court without his warm ups on.   

Question #4 – “Will I start (Allen Iverson) at point or at off-(guard)?” 

Answer #4 – Finally an actual question.  Vindicated!  Once again see the answer to question #1.  AI will start at the point.  Chucky Atkins is a fill in at best.  The fact that they waived Roberson shows that AI will put in a lot of time at the point as the only other capable points on the roster are Atkins and Johnson.  Atkins is still not 100% and Carter will be out for at least the first two weeks of the season.  Right now there is no other option than playing AI at the point.   

Also, Iverson can slide over to the two, with Atkins or Johnson on the floor, but that is a defensive nightmare for the Nuggets, with the current focus on defense I doubt you will see many minutes played by a smallish back court.   

There you go George.  I hope that was helpful.

Summer League Roster Announced

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The Nuggets summer league roster has been announced and for a team without a draft pick last week, there are some intriguing names on the list. 

Anthony Carter, DerMarr Johnson and Jamal Sampson are players who may not be back next season and will need to be replaced.  For that matter, Steve Blake will probably be gone too, but I doubt his replacement is on the summer league roster.  It is possible that one or two of the players on the summer league roster might make the team so let’s look at the players that have the potential to stick.

Will Blaylock, PG, Iowa State – Blaylock was a second round pick by the Pistons last season and is a guard who can penetrate and set up teammates.  He is a poor shooter though and is on the small side, but he has the talent to make a roster.

Mark Karcher, G/F, Temple – Karcher was the best player for a couple of years at Temple and is a decent scorer.  I have no idea how his game has advanced over the past couple of seasons as he has not been in the NBA, but he has potential to create offense off the bench.

Jelani McCoy, F/C, UCLA – McCoy has been in and out of the NBA, most recently out, but has the size and athleticism to make a roster.  He has seven years of NBA experience so if he can bring something to the table in summer league, he may be a replacement for Sampson.  I do not think I would make that exchange, but it is a possibility.

Curtis Sumpter, F, Villanova – Sumpter is a very talented player who has had several knee injuries that derailed his college career.  He is more of a power forward in a small forward’s body, but he has skills and if he can develop a decent midrange jumper, he may be able to make it in the NBA.

Dajuan Wagner, G, Memphis – Wagner was an absolute stud in high school and at Memphis.  He came out after one season and was drafted between Skita and Nene.  He had some strange flukie health problems (an infection that spread form his bladder to his urethra, does not sound fun) and is trying to get back to the NBA.  He was on Golden State’s roster to begin last season, but was let go early on.  It is unlikely he will ever be what he could have been had he stayed healthy, but if he can recapture a little of that talent he had entering the league he can be a contributor in the NBA.  

There are also two players that make me wonder what on earth the Nuggets were thinking.  First of all Skita is on the roster.  Do the Nuggets really need to bring in a guy who represents one of the worst decisions and biggest missed opportunities in team history when the Nuggets could have drafted Amare Stoudemire or Caron Butler instead of Skita?  Why Skita?  Was Mark Macon unavailable?

Secondly, Lamond Murray who has not been in the league for probably two or three years and has no contributed anything for probably five years is on the roster.  Do we really need to see what he can do?  Why not bring in Richard Dumas or John Wallace?  Hopefully, he is being considered as a potential coaching candidate, because if he actually plays I will be very confused.

There are 14 players on the roster.  Would 12 have been too few?  

Who is not there?  Kiki’s big reach from the 2005 draft Ricky Sanchez is AWOL.  He has been playing with the Idaho Stampede in the CBA, but no one ever mentions him as someone the Nuggets are watching anymore.  I can count seven players that were drafted behind Ricky that have a future in the NBA and three that I personally would have picked ahead of him (Andray Blatche, Monta Ellis or Ersan Ilyasova in that order).  Actually, there are probably about 20 or 30 players that I would have picked ahead of him, but those three were guys that I really liked (and still do). 

The player to watch is Von Wafer who the Nuggets called up from the NBDL last season.  Wafer hit 45% of his threes and if he can even just play acceptable defense and mistake free offense the Nuggets could really use that shooting.  The Nuggets picked him up last season knowing that they had no picks in the 2007 draft so that they had at least one prospect heading into the season.  It may work out and if it does, we will see the first signs of that starting this weekend in Las Vegas.

Update:  The Nuggets have announced that Dajuan Wagner will not be part of their summer league team. No reason was given and I have yet to see Wagner on any other team’s summer league roster. The Nuggets have added Bracey Wright who played (or should I say watched) for Minnesota the past couple of seasons.  

Back to the Future

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There is a one significant bright spot heading into next season for the Nuggets and that is the development of Nene. 

Nene came into the league as a raw youngster out of Brazil who was huge and athletic, but was not really a basketball player.  In his rookie season as a 20 year-old, he showed great promise both as a defender and as a finisher.  He looked and played a little bit like a young Karl Malone.  His shot was very inconsistent, but he had a fluid stroke that showed potential for development. 

On defense Nene looked like a natural.  Inside his size and strength made him a tough matchup for even the best post players.  On the perimeter his quickness made him one of the best big men in the league at hedging on screens.  Several times point guards coming off a high screen at the top of the three point line were surprised to suddenly see Nene streaking in the opposite direction with the ball after swiping it form them. 

Nene seemed like a perfect fit for the Nuggets with his ability to run the floor and play very good defense.  Once he learned to hit fifteen foot jumpers both from the wing and at the line, and developed his post play to take advantage of his size and quickness the Nuggets would have a high quality power forward for the next ten years. 

For some reason Nene regressed some in his second season even though his numbers were slightly better.  The jump shot that we all knew he was working on, even on the court before games, never came around.  Instead of having a knack for low post scoring, he seemed to have a knack for producing shots that left observers wondering, “How did he get that to roll out?” 

Nene’s future became more cloudy in 2004-2005 when the Nuggets pulled off a sign and trade for Kenyon Martin.  No longer was Nene the power forward of the present or the future in Denver.  This seemed to hurt both his attitude and development as he openly wondered how much longer he would be a Nugget.  Nene struggled through an injury plagued 55 game season that saw career lows in every category but free throw percentage and blocks.  Now his ability to rebound was coming into question and we were still waiting for that post game and jump shot to reach even serviceable levels.

As bad as his third season was, Nene’s fourth season was a low point.  Just three minutes into action in the first game of the season in San Antonio, Nene blew out his knee.  What was once a very promising career had now turned into another potential Nugget disaster along the lines of LaPhonso Ellis.  A young promising career that never really got started was looking to be derailed.  On top of everything else, Nene signed a large contract extension which left Nugget fans confused and upset.  The Nuggets were already shelling out a huge amount of money to one perpetually injured power forward in Kenyon Martin.  Now they are doing it again? 

Nene was able to come back from his ACL injury early on in the season, but he was physically out of shape and weighed down both physically and by the contract extension he had just signed.   

To the Nuggets’ credit, they never gave up on Nene and realized all along that he was not damaged goods, nor had he tapped into his potential yet. 

As we said, Nene was still overweight and out of shape from his long rehab stint at the beginning of the year.  Things grew much worse for the Nuggets as Kenyon Martin was lost for the season after the second game.  The Nuggets desperately needed Nene to produce for them.  However, in the fourth game of the season, Nene banged knees with Marcus Camby and missed the next month.  Upon his return he played limited minutes and missed more games than he produced good results in.

Then, around the middle of February, Nene began to return physically to the player he was before the knee injury.  His performance continued to improve and he became a fixture in the starting rotation.  He turned into a player that could be counted on for thirty or more minutes a night.  His post offense became very strong and that long hoped for jump shot began to make its appearance in games. 

Nene played well enough over the last two and a half months of the season that he ended up posting career high numbers in almost every category.  His rebounding remained slightly inconsistent, but he had ten games that saw him grab at least ten rebounds and another eight games that he pulled down at least eight rebounds accounting for almost half the games played after the All-Star break.  Nene averaged 13.8 points and 8.3 rebounds over the last half of the season and he increased that to 16.6 points and 9.1 rebounds over the last five weeks. 

However, Nene left his most promising effort for last as he was arguably the Nuggets’ second best player in the playoffs against the Spurs.  His 13.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists were garnered while being guarded by the premiere defensive big man in all of basketball in Tim Duncan.  He also shot 58% with games of 7 for 11, 7 for 9 and 4 of 6 over the last three games of the series.  Fans were now clamoring for more shots for Nene instead of complaining about his contract and health. 

Nene still has a ways to go.  His rebounding still requires improvement, but his shot, his passing and his defense are nearing the upper echelon of power forwards.  He has completed his fifth season in the NBA, but is still only 24 (he will be 25 before next season starts).  At this point in his career, he does not need to be a go to scorer, the Nuggets have plenty of those, but he will get great chances to score in the paint, and he will have to continue to play tough defense against the Tim Duncan’s, Zach Randolph’s and Elton Brand’s of the west. 

With the development of Nene, Denver can afford to include either Eduardo Najera or Reggie Evans in a trade to improve the roster heading into next season.  To show how things have changed, just two years removed from the prospect of having to change teams because of the presence of Kenyon Martin, Nene is once again the present and future at the power forward position in Denver.  And now it is Martin who is the constantly injured, overpaid, under producing power forward that will have to adjust to coming off the bench to start next season.