Game 32: Denver Nuggets 118 – Minnesota Timberwolves 107

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

For those of you hoping to see a longwinded and boring post on the game against the Timberwolves I am sorry to disappoint you.  Here is a brief, though equally boring, post to cover the highpoints. 

Any concerns about the Nuggets taking the Timberwolves too lightly were erased in the first couple of minutes of a game.  The Nuggets jumped out to a 12-0 lead that Minnesota was never fully able to overcome.   

Denver took advantage of the Timberwolves atrocious transition defense, as evidenced by the fact they are last in the league in fast break points allowed, as they scored layup after layup in the first half. 

The Nuggets played a little less consistently on offense in the second half, but once again AI was tremendous in the second stanza racking up 19 points.  Only a career night from Rashad McCants allowed the T-Wolves to stay close.   

All I wanted to see was the Nuggets play the game with purpose and win.  Dave from my office expected them to lose by 8 due to the letdown factor and they avoided that fate.  The Wolves did manage to cut the Nugget lead down to six in the last couple minutes, but Denver was never in any danger of losing this game.   

So my assessment is mission accomplished. 

Sure beating the worst team in the league is not quite mission impossible, but mission accomplished nonetheless. 

Other Observations From Game 32:

 - Once again, shot and boring.  Does anyone else find it odd that after playing well against Golden State J.R. Smith has not gotten off the bench for two straight games? 

 - OK, one more.  How fair is it to have Kuba Diawara record three straight DNP-CDs and then have George Karl throw him out on the court to try to slow down the red hot McCants?  Hey Kuba, here’s a bucket, try to clean up that Niagara Falls thing. 

 - I know you are always supposed to leave them wanting more, but that is making the assumption that you guys wanted any of this in the first place, which is dangerous.  I gotta toss out one more observation.  Finally Karl realized that Chucky Atkins needs to sit down until he is totally healthy.  If he is totally healthy right now, he just needs to sit down period.  Atkins was the only Nugget with a minus for a plus/minus in the game.  Of course it could have been worse.  He could have been Sebastian Telfair who had a -25 in less than 21 minutes!  How is that even possible? 

Check out TWolves Blog for some insight from the deep dark hole that is the Minnesota sports scene.

Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

An Open Letter to More Optimistic Nuggets Fans Than Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Disco left a comment after my post for the Miami game.  He brings up some good points and I wanted to make sure that everyone saw it because it displays a more optimistic side of things for the Nuggets and may very well prove to be accurate when contrasted to my more pessimistic view of what may transpire for the rest of the season.  It is definitely a good conversation starter and I think we could have some good discussion regarding these issues.   

Here is Disco’s comment:

Assuming GK/AI/Melo/Camby are ok with losing anything is silly. These are some of the most competitive guys in the NBA we are talking about. Most people assume Karl is fine with losing because he made this comment… but what would you have him do? Call out Melo/AI in the press? Right…thats gonna make the team better. I think you have greatly misjudged the psychological makeup of this team. This team thinks they can beat any team on any night…which is why they get lazy. They do not think its ‘OK to lose this one’.

In addition, its silly to extrapolate a season worth of games from the first month ESPECIALLY with this team. I think we all agree this team has not hit its stride yet.

These are all good points, but I tend to disagree with what he said so here is an open letter to optimistic Nuggets fans everywhere addressing the comment left by Disco: 

I can see and appreciate where you are coming from.  It is possible that I am being too hard on the Nuggets, or further still, completely wrong.  But it is obvious to me that this team is not making the obvious changes that are necessary to succeed consistently on the court.  That is a mental issue that this team has.  You are right that they are not in the locker room before a game saying to one another, “We can afford to lose tonight.”  It is a more subtle subconscious process that is allowed to fester by Karl himself using the excuse of injuries or Camby using the excuse of playing five back to back sets of games to rationalize poor performances.   

I wrote that I did not want to hear one player or coach use injuries, or anything else, as an excuse for why they lose because it fosters that defeatist mindset.  As soon as someone allows themselves to think that they lost because of injuries, it becomes an acceptable reason for the team as a whole to underperform.  The Nuggets, specifically Karl, let that happen. 

As far as their competitiveness, I agree that Camby and especially Iverson are competitive.  Melo is competitive, but he is no where near the level of Iverson.  I actually think Melo is a frontrunner where he is great when they are scoring a lot of points and things are going his way, but when things start to go bad, he gets frustrated and if that frustration festers for too long he becomes a detriment to the team.  His shot selection becomes atrocious and he starts pouting.   

Karl is much more difficult to read.  I know he was a very passionate player and coach when he was younger, but we do not see that much anymore.  I wrote a couple of days ago that he is clearly trying not to grate on his players as he used to.  He definitely makes a point of not calling his guys out in the papers, but none of us have any idea what he says to them behind closed doors.  He may be doing all he can, but I do not get the sense from him that every loss just eats him up inside.   

Ultimately with this team the problem is not having enough competitors who do not want to lose, but how that competitiveness manifests itself when the other team makes a run and how they react when they are not playing well.  I think Iverson is by far the most competitive player on the team.  I believe every loss hurts him and more than anything he wants to win a championship.  He gives it his all every night and will never stop fighting, but he is only one guy. 

I have also seen a downside of that super competitive nature that Iverson possesses in how it impacts the way he plays.  We all know that this team is at its best when they are playing some semblance of defense, running the floor and moving without the ball on offense.  When Iverson senses things are going bad and that hatred of losing boils to the surface, he becomes even more of a one on one player.  Ultimately, he relies on himself to carry the team out of it and usually that only exacerbates the issues on offense.   

When a game starts slipping away I want to see AI, Camby and Melo call everyone together and get on the same page.  Demand that everyone shares the ball and moves on offense.  Demand that they all start gritting it out on defense.  Remember together that they play their best when they play as a team and not as individuals.    

Instead, when things start to go bad we see Melo jacking up more and more contested jumpers and AI over dribbling.  The result of which is things seem to go downhill even more quickly.  At this point that attitude I wrote about comes in where the excuses they use to dismiss poor play impact their acceptance of what is happening on the court.  Again, I am not saying it is a purposeful decision, but a reason to let the flood of momentum overwhelm them.  Their effort becomes hollow.   

The best example of this was the game against the Clippers in Los Angeles.  On several occasions they were only down four in the second half, but they never gave me the slightest inkling of belief that they would get any closer.  After the game I wrote that it was the most insurmountable small third quarter lead I had ever seen.   

That game happened to be the second half of a back to back and they were playing without Nene, Chucky Atkins, Anthony Carter and Steven Hunter.  To top it off Linas Kleiza was injured in the second half as well.  Mentally they completely mailed in the second half.  It was pathetic.  Is it a coincidence that those excuses they site so readily were present in that game?  I do not think so.  Somewhere in their minds they decided that with all the obstacles they were facing that game was one that they could let go of.   

Instead of pulling together and fighting back when things get tight, they let a 17 point lead against the Lakers turn into a 28 point blowout, a nine point lead against an undermanned Clipper team turn into an inexplicable 11 point loss.  They have had one game all year where things were not going their way and yet they fought back to win against a decent team and that was the game in Indiana where we know Karl gave them a good thrashing at halftime.  They have come back to win games against Seattle and twice against Minnesota, but those were against the two worst teams in the league.  I do not think that is much to get excited about, but to be fair it does merit mentioning. 

Based on what I have seen, I have to question this team’s mindset and attitude heading into games.  I have to wonder why they allow themselves to play four horrible games in a row without showing the slightest interest in changing the things that they know they need to do better in order to win.  The very fact that they make excuses about injuries and schedules when those things do not prevent them from moving without the ball or taking good shots or rallying their teammates to change how they are playing shows where there mind is.  How else can you explain what we have seen the first month of the season?  This is a veteran team that should not have to keep learning the same lessons over and over again. 

You bring up another good point that has bugged me for the past three years.  They have a very arrogant attitude about themselves.  They do get lazy against poor teams and they lose important games because of it.  I do not believe the reason is because they know that they can beat anyone at anytime.  I believe it is because they think they are good enough to just show up and win.  That is a ridiculous attitude to have for a team that has not accomplished anything together. 

Concerning the projected record I put together, I was merely working with what they have done this season and their performance in previous seasons to develop what kind of pace they were on.  I am not saying it is etched in stone that they will be 50-32.  I think I used sound arguments for how I came up with that number.  Can they win 55 games?  Sure, but it seems unlikely.  Have they hit their stride yet?  You are correct in saying they have not.  One of the points I have tried to drive home though is that the schedule gets much more difficult.  Look at what they have in store for them in March.  They will have to play much better than they have to this point just to win seven or eight games that month. 

I do have very strong reservations about this team.  I may be wrong and I may be misreading their mindset, but I do not know how else to interpret the indifference, inconsistency and lack of urgency I see from them.  I hope I am wrong and they can begin playing consistently great basketball.  They definitely have the ability to do so.   

It really makes me worry that they know they need home court advantage and a favorable playoff matchup to have a good chance to advance in the playoffs, but their play has not reflected that belief.  November was a month to prove that they were a team to be taken seriously and get a lead on many of their competitors and they failed to do that.   

I would like to thank Disco for posting his comment as well as all of you who take the time to share you thoughts.  I truly appreciate all of you who chose to read this blog.   

I think this can be a good starting point for more discussion so please leave your thoughts below.  Am I completely wrong?  Do we need to give the Nuggets more time?  I am looking forward to what everyone thinks about the state of the Nuggets at this point in the season. 

Game 13: Denver Nuggets 99 – Minnesota Timberwolves 93

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

How dedicated am I to you guys?  My wife and I celebrated our anniversary tonight, and now I am watching the replay of the game so that I can file my post for everyone to enjoy.  The only question is will I make it to my next anniversary? 

Afer watching the replay I am not happy.

I want to know how do they come out flat for this game?  How do they give this team any hope?  I may go back and edit my glowing post following the Bulls game where I lauded their killer instinct and desire to blow everyone out.   

Before the season I laid out the groundwork for what it would take for this team must do in order for me to take them seriously as a contender.  I had to have a 14-3 record at the end of November.  Even though that is what I needed to see from them I let myself get sucked in by a few easy wins.  

Tonight the Nuggets did turn it on with about five minutes left in the third quarter and played with some determination in the fourth quarter, but they could never pull away from the Timberwolves and that was frustrating.

After the jump shooting extravaganza in Los Angeles the other night, wouldn’t you think that the Nuggets might have decided that they were going to work to get better shots?  Maybe try some of those things we have been talking about like moving without the ball, quick passing and pushing the pace.   

I have no idea why, but this team has to keep learning the same lessons over and over again.  What is worse, they know it.  They say things like, “It starts with defense” and “We have to play hard for the full 48 minutes,” but they keep failing to do those things and it keeps them from being a top team. 

That is exactly why I labeled these guys the Punxsutawney Nuggets (I sure wish that groundhog lived in a town like Joes or Hot Lake, it would be much easier to spell).  We see the same problems over and over.  They never get resolved.  At some point the team has to show some legitimate growth.  I have seen growth as individuals here and there, but not as a team. 

I will equate it to the frat buddies who have all finally settled down and started families, but whenever they get together they start doing blow and poking hookers.  Things eventually fall apart, just watch the movie “Very Bad Things” and you will see what I am talking about. 

Plenty of people will say this was a good win, they fought through a tough game and did what they had to, but that is window dressing.  It is soothing a symptom and not the disease.  Teams who contend dominate weak teams.  Sure they lose some over the course of an 82 game season, but they do not struggle so frequently with poor teams at home.   

Other Observations From Game 13: 

 - I was again disappointed with J.R. Smith’s performance.  He took three bad threes in the first half and even pushed McCants down which was somehow completely missed by the refs.  That is the kind of mental mistake that will bite you in a big game.  He has stopped swinging the ball around and has been shooting it himself.  He throws fits after every call that goes against him, even the good ones.  The maturity he was showing has absolutely disappeared.   

Can it be as simple as the position he is playing?  He has played much more intelligently as a point guard.  He has the ability to play the position and it sounded like he enjoyed it.  I know with Kleiza out and Carter back they needed him more at the swing positions, but I think they should consider a long term switch for J.R. He is still giving god effort on defense though so that is a good sign. 

 - Kenyon Martin had a very good game.  He played solid defense on Jefferson when they were not in their silly zone and put up some points on the other end of the court.  He has been consistently deadly within twelve feet all season.  The most encouraging thing for me was to see Martin go 4-4 from the free throw line when the game was still in doubt.   

 - How do the Timberwolves not run their offense all game long through Al Jefferson?  He is their best offensive weapon.  They rely way too much on their perimeter players.  In the first half it seemed like the talent vacant Mark Madsen had more chances on the block than he did. 

 - I wrote after the Portland Trailblazers game that I was disappointed that they came out and played zone because it prevented them from potentially developing a tough man to man defensive identity?  Well, for a good chunk of the first half they played zone and it hurt them.  This is not a very good zone team.  It is too easy to lose focus and expect someone else to do your job or someone else to get the rebound. In the second half they did play man to man exclusively from what I noticed, but the same situation arose as was present in the Clipper game, the tone of the game had been set.   

 - Notice how Chris Marlow is now referring to the baseline jumper as Camby’s favorite shot?  What is going to happen when he starts missing that one all the time?  Will the dunk then become his favorite shot?  I guess in a roundabout way at least people are realizing that Camby has no business taking that shot form the top of the key anymore, except for him as he flung it up there at least three more times tonight and I do not think he made any of them.   

I wish I could get that kind of treatment at my work.  Here he is going for his favorite email, the I thought you took care of it email.  Don’t mention that I am not doing my job, but just accept that I should be doing it because I do it often.

 - Well, the Nuggets got Anthony Carter back.  What did everyone think?  I thought he did a good job.  I do not blame him for fumbling the ball around a couple of times.  He played good defense, but does not seem to always make the right decision on offense.  He forced a couple of passes and made other passes that did not really trigger anything.  I am more in favor of him getting minutes than Chucky Atkins, but time will tell which of them should be on the floor.  Atkins is certainly a better shooter than Carter, but can he bring more to the table than that? 

 - Melo made three long jumpers to start off the game and everyone started getting excited.  I was somewhat concerned.  As noted above, the Nuggets did not work to get good shots against the Clippers.  He can get the long jumper whenever he wants.  It is a criticism of other talented players as well, particularly Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter.  They can get in the paint whenever they want, but it is so easy to take a 20 footer, why not do it.  They all can make it so it seems like a good idea to them to take it when in fact they should be working for a better shot.   

One of the crucial plays in the game late in the fourth quarter saw Melo jack up a 22 foot jumper after holding the ball and making no attempt to get to the rim.  It ended up being a positive turning point for the Nuggets as Camby slammed the miss through, thus letting Melo off the hook.  I did not hear much mentioned about it, but Melo’s shot selection was not good in this game.   

 - Along the same lines from a coaching standpoint it is tempting to go with isolation sets because talented players like Melo and AI can beat almost anyone, but more easy shots come about through moving without the ball and quick passing than standing as the clock winds down.  

 - Post game show in a nut shell:  Did not do this right or this right or this right or that right or this either, but they got the W so life is great.  All these things they struggled with do matter.  They are warning signs on the way to the washed out bridge.  One of the things coaches say is it is tough to teach after a win.  Players know they won the game so they are not going to listen if you try to tell them what they did wrong.   

However, I too fall prey to this as my tracking of bad losses does not include bad wins.  Why?  Because they go in the win column, but we all know the things that haunted the Nuggets in this game will continue to haunt them all season long. 

 - Tomorrow night they get the struggling Houston Rockets who somehow gave up a 26 and 14 night to the artist formerly known as Shaq Diesel on their way to their sixth straight loss.  I guess things could be worse.   

Sorry for the lack of humor tonight, but I used all my wit on my wife during dinner.

 Check out the what Timberwolves fans are saying after this game at TWolvesBlog.

Statistical Anomaly

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Take a look at this:

First of all, it is nice to see the Nuggets in their rightful place at the top of the Northwest Division standings.   

However, look at the bottom and check out the winning percentages for Minnesota and Seattle.  Notice who is in last place. 

At first I thought it was a typo as Seattle has a higher winning percentage, but is behind Minnesota in the standings.  But if you calculate the games back totals (the difference in wins plus the difference in losses divided by two) they are correct.  Because of that, the team with the second lowest winning percentage is actually in last place.   

I do not ever remember seeing that before so I figured I had to share and this is short enough that I do not think I wasted too much of anyone’s time.

Oh, and thanks to ESPN.com for the standings.

Game 11: Denver Nuggets 112 – Chicago Bulls 91

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

What else can we say about the Nuggets at this point?  Tonight was another example of smart offense, tough defense and near nonstop effort.  They got up early on the Bulls, which is easy as they start two offensively inept players and three other players who are in an extreme slump, and kept the pedal down all night. 

One big change I see in the Nuggets this year is a new hyper-competitiveness.  Right now they have a killer instinct that I have never seen from them before.  One example of that was Camby getting called for a travel late in the third quarter with a 25 point lead and getting really upset like I-just-caught-my-wife-in-bed-with-two-other-dudes upset.  These guys want to destroy everyone right now and I love it. 

Like I said, what else can we say about the Nuggets at this point in the season?  They are blowing out teams that they should be blowing out.  That may seem a bit uninteresting, as much of my material does, but do not discount that as there are many teams who struggle at winning the games that they should win easily in the NBA.  One team that struggled mightily with that was your 2006-2007 Denver Nuggets. 

We really will not find out much more about them until they play at Houston on Saturday.  That is unless they lose on the road against the Clippers or at home against the Timberwolves before that. 

Other Observations From Game 11: 

 - Nocioni is a scrapper and fighter on defense.  One of the things I was worried about was him getting away with the little physical hits and getting in the Nuggets’ (i.e. Melo’s) head(s).  Well, Melo made him look absolutely silly.  Nocioni was never close enough to Melo to get any cheap shots in on him.  Melo was able to use his superior quickness to get plenty of space on Nocioni whether it was in the paint on a sweet spin move or on the perimeter with the step back jumper.   

Nocioni is going to be praying that Argentina plays zone next year in the Olympics against Team USA because he wants no part of Melo after tonight. 

Along the same lines, Melo has not had any big blowups as he has had in the past where he loses his head or starts playing selfish to prove a point.  No throwing the headband or flipping out on refs.  It is almost as if he is growing up.   

 - Melo had a migraine in the morning, and it may have reflected a little bit in his shooting.  He was 0-3 on three pointers and missed a handful of 18 footers.  He did break out of his one game free throw slump in a big way.  He shot 10-13 which was not great, but was much better than the 0-4 he put up against New York.   

 - Martin was tremendous in the first quarter.  He has not only done a tremendous job on defense, but he is just as good on offense.  His shot selection has been as good as I have seen since he came to Denver.  He has eliminated the 20 foot jumper from his repertoire (he did take an 18 footer in the third quarter, but I can excuse that from time to time) and is taking the ball to the basket for his nice little push shot.    

 - There were three different stages of the game where the Nuggets relaxed and the Bulls were able to cut into their lead, at the beginning of the second quarter the Bulls went on a 7-0 run, when the starters came back in midway through the second quarter when they saw a 49-32 lead get knocked down to ten and a couple of minutes at the beginning of the second half when the had a 5-0 run. 

In the past the Nuggets would have let those sequences snowball into a prolonged run.  At this point in the season they are regaining their focus and throwing up a run of their own to not only regain their advantage, but increase it.   

In the past three games neither the Blazers, the Knicks nor the Bulls have been able to cut a big Nuggets second quarter down below ten.  You read that correctly, in the previous three games once the Nuggets have been up by at least ten in the second quarter they have maintained that lead throughout the game.   

 - Even when the Nuggets were temporarily losing focus on defense their offense was in high gear all night.  Melo has been a matchup nightmare for his individual defender for a couple of seasons, but now that he is more dedicated to hit the open man when he drives and that has made him other-worldly.  When he is passing the way he is it will require an entire team effort to keep the Nuggets from having a big offensive night. 

 - Has Nocioni shut up yet?  Dear Lord, the guy complains more than a prissy Valley Girl doing manual labor. 

 - Tyrus Thomas was a complete punk for a short stretch in the third quarter.  He glared at Melo for tipping the ball out of his hands after a whistle.  Then he tried to be a tough guy fighting through a screen the next time down the court and was called for a foul.  After that he threw a mini elbow at Kenyon after Martin was called for a pushing into him on a screen.  He had a really nice game against Detroit this season.  If he does not get his head on straight, that will end up being his career game.   

 - I think Hinrich just missed another jumper.  And he is planning on taking another on the next possession.  Gordon was much worse than Kirk so it may have been better using him, but in the third quarter after the Bulls made their last mini-run he missed jumpers on three or four possessions in a short sequence to kill any chance they had of getting any closer.

 - I really should say something about Marcus Camby seeing how he had another 20 rebound game.  He had a sequence of blocks in the second quarter that left Scott Skiles on the floor yelling at the refs because he could not believe that anyone could do such a thing.  Well, believe it Coach Skiles and enjoy the auto deduction from your next check for the fine you will get after picking up that technical.  As great as Camby has been, it is almost routine to see him grab rebound after rebound.  He is playing at a high level and deserves all the accolades that he is receiving from Nugget fans.

 - I agree completely with what Kenny Smith said about the Bulls on Inside the NBA last week.  They are a jump shooting team that can never get any open jumpers.  Question:  How many 20 footers do those guys take with a hand in their face?  Answer:  More than the average person shoots in their life. 

 - I kind of have a sore throat right now, but I think I will be alright. 

 - I have not really given Iverson, the reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, much attention in the past couple of write ups, but he had 20 points in the first half and was playing superlative offensive basketball.  He is taking (mostly) good shots and getting teammates involved.  He let Hinrich get loose a couple of times in the first half on defense, but was a tremendous pest apart from that.   

The very first possession of the game the Iverson and Diawara were playing such great denial defense that Ben Wallace could not pass the ball off to anyone and had to take an awkward driving shot.  How often do you see that in the NBA? 

Believe it or not, you see it now from the Denver Nuggets.

You can find a perspective from the Bulls point of view at Blog-a-Bull.

Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

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There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

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 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Rumors and Projections That Make no Sense

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First the KG trade rumors.  It is obvious that the Wolves are working to trade KG before the draft in order to land some picks.  That makes sense.  His value will drop after the draft and bottom out at the trade deadline.  They need to make a deal now.

What makes no sense, if the Stoudemire to Atlanta or Charlotte rumors are true (and that is a big if), and Phoenix is willing to trade Amare, why on earth would Minnesota not take him?  I know cap space and draft picks offer the siren song of the unknown and create excitement, but Amare is an absolute stud who can score at will.  He was rusty for the first month or so of last season and went on a tear after that.  I realize that Minnesota will not have cap space in the future, but if they just nab Amare, they get a top flight player for KG.  What good will cap space do them?  What major free agent will ever want to sign there knowing that they have failed to build around their star player for all of these years?  Minnesota will not get anything better than Amare when they finally trade KG.  They should just do a deal straight up with Phoenix right now.

Why would Milwaukee be interested in Mike Conley?  They have a point guard that they can easily keep as long as they pony up the cash.  Their team will not get better if they draft a PG just to let the one they have go.  Sure they will probably have to pay a little more than Mo Williams is worth to keep him, but the whole goal is to build a team, not replace one player with another.  If they can waive goodbye to Williams and then sign a top free agent with what they save then fine, but who do they think they can sign that will help?  It is doubtful that Conley will even be available to them at #6, but it still bugs me that they were ever considering Conley.

If Joakim Noah is such a great team guy, why is he telling Milwaukee and Minnesota not to draft him?  If he was such a team oriented player, why not go with whoever drafts you and work hard to make that team better?  Steve Francis pulls this with Vancouver and he is an ungrateful jerk.  Noah does it and he is still a media darling.  What’s the difference?

Why doesn’t David Stern just appoint someone to run the Hawks until this ownership issue is resolved?  Having a team that is both such an important position in the draft and being ripe to help implement a major trade mired in conflict is screwing everything up.  If they could have landed Stoudemire, but one owner would not allow it out of spite for the other owners someone should have stepped in and forced things through.  How good would the Hawks be with Amare?  Shelden Williams does not look so bad at the four with Amare on one side and Josh Smith on the other.  Throw in Joe Johnson and that deep bench and you have a very dangerous team.  Now on the other hand, add in Al Horford or Yi Jianlian and Acie Law and what do you have?  Another lottery appearance, that’s what.

What is keeping Boston and Indiana from making deals?  Boston needs to show some progress and Indiana needs to start over.  They are both active in trade discussions, but like I said earlier, player values spike around the draft, unless they have an expiring contract, then their value spikes at the trade deadline.  Neither team is working with a large expiring contract so get something done already.  What does Boston do that will improve them at #5?  Nothing.  Sure they can land another solid prospect, but that is it.  Maybe if they take Jeff Green or Corey Brewer they have a player who will help from day one, but will they be in the playoffs this season?  Next season?  Five years from now?  No one knows.  This team is going nowhere without a trade.  Indiana needs to get rid of Jermaine O’Neal.  It sounds like they are trying, but they need to do something sooner rather than later.

I am hoping that we get some major trades going tonight, but I would not count on it.  At least there is enough suspense surrounding where all the top players will end up since it really is a crap shoot from pick three through 12 or so. 

Let Them Play!

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There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!

Welcome to the Northwest Division Greg and Kevin!

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The NBA Lottery drama is over and it is time to start getting back to some more Nugget specific posts.  The lottery had a potentially huge impact on Denver last night as two of our division rivals are poised to add a sure thing future star.  The star power in the Northwest Division is on the rise. 

Portland is an up and coming team with some really nice young talent.  The have the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, the second overall pick in the draft from last year in LeMarcus Aldridge, a raw point guard with amazing potential in Sergio Rodriguez and now they will probably be adding Greg Oden to roam the paint.  (Also, do not forget about Joel Freeland either.  Odds are that he will end up a rotation player at best, but a lot of scouts were very high on him heading into the draft last season.)  If there is a team with a better talent base to build off of with the potential to be dominant in two or three years, I would like to know who it is. 

Portland also has the option to draft Durant, which might actually be the best choice for them.  Picking Durant would give them a starting five of Jack/Rodriguez, Roy, Durant, Randolph and Aldridge.  Anyone want to bet against that group being dominant in three years?  Me neither.  I actually think that Durant is a better fit for this team as Oden is going to have to operate on the block, which will minimize Randolph’s opportunities there.   Randolph has a decent perimeter game, but Nate McMillen worked very hard last season to get Zach to focus on playing inside instead of outside.  If Oden is the pick, look for Randolph to be traded. 

Seattle may have won the rights to the second pick in the draft, but it is not a cure all for them.  However, this pick gives them the potential to really blow things up and start from scratch.  Durant is a big upgrade over Rashard Lewis as a defender, rebounder and general all around force, and they can now work out a sign and trade for Lewis with the knowledge that they have someone to not only take his place, but exceed his production.  Ray Allen has been the star and face of the franchise since he arrived, but Durant’s star power will allow them to move Ray.  They should be able to get some pretty nice pieces by trading Allen and/or Lewis. 

On the other hand, if Seattle hangs onto Lewis and Allen, they are just a point guard away from being able to go small and run a Phoenix type system.  Seattle has been a team that has tried to outscore the opposition for the past three or four years, adding Durant gives them three 20+ point per game scorers.  Either way, the Sonics are going to be much better in the near future.  It will be interesting to see what they do, because they seem to believe that the division title they won three years ago was legit.  The only reason they have not repeated was because of injuries and at any time they will return to their rightful place as division champs.  I tend to disagree with that assessment though.

The big losers in the lottery, other than Boston and Memphis, may turn out to be Denver, Utah and Minnesota, but the team that may have had a nail driven in the coffin last night was Minnesota.  Not only did they not move up from the seventh selection, they are on the verge of becoming the least talented team in the Northwest Division.  It is one thing for Kevin Garnett to be on a team that just misses the playoffs by a couple of games, but to be on the worst team in the division would probably cause Garnett to spontaneously combust. 

From the Nuggets’ perspective, they should still be a better team than Portland and Seattle next season, but over the next couple of seasons things could change quickly.  Iverson’s contract expires in two years and if he does not believe that Denver is a contender, he will definitely look to sign somewhere else.  Aside form his contract his health could expire at any time.  Add in Camby who is always a health risk and Kenyon Martin who is barely a risk to ever actually be healthy and the Nuggets are paying a lot of money for what is far from a sure thing. 

Right now the Northwest Division belongs to Utah and Denver, but in a couple of years it may be Portland and Seattle’s division.  Then again, maybe Oden turns into Sam Bowie and Durant ends up playing like Keith Van Horn.  Just don’t count on it.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.