Game 18: Denver Nuggets 115 – Miami Heat 89

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Due to some extenuating circumstances, nothing bad I assure you, I was not able to watch much of the game last night.  I missed a lot of it live and only saw a little bit here and there of the replay.  So from what I saw here is an abbreviated report. 

Only Observations From Game 18:

 - The Nuggets rolled another poor team at home which once again makes it difficult to draw conclusions as to how they are improving.  That being said, they did really move very well without the ball on offense and they took advantage of that by making quick aggressive passes.  I do not like just reciting stats from the box score, but I will have to rely on some of that as I did not see all of the game.  The combination of pushing the pace, the Nuggets were +16 in fast break points, and the movement and passing mentioned above gave them an advantage of +24 in points in the paint.  They also topped 30 assists against only 12 turnovers.  Had Von Wafer not committed three turnovers in his five minutes on the court, their turnover total would have been even more impressive.   

I have no idea why they cannot play with that kind of focus and purpose on offense every game.  I realize teams can get in a funk here and there, but it should never happen for a prolonged period of time.  The Nuggets had gone for four or five games in a row without playing smart offense and that is inexcusable.   

There has been, and still is, a great deal of talk about how difficult it should be for teams to guard Melo and Iverson.  When they are focusing on isolations and dribbling in place long enough to make the ball lopsided they allow almost any defense to set up and be prepared to stop them, but when the entire team is passing the ball quickly the defense gets out of position and it is at that point when Carmelo and AI become almost unstoppable. 

 - Miami is really bad.  Shaq is at the end of his rope.  He may hang around and finish out his contract, but I cannot imagine how much of a liability he will be in the next two or three seasons.  I also do not think Wade is completely healed form his offseason surgeries.  I believe I heard them say that he has not dunked since he returned nine or ten games ago.  For a player that relies so much on his explosive athleticism that has to be concerning for the Heat.  Of course, I wish I had dunked nine or ten games ago.  I have to settle for lowering the basket at my in-laws house in order to accomplish that feat. 

The Heat are stuck in a position financially and talent wise that is somewhat comparable to the Knicks.  They are paying Shaq so much that they cannot afford to bring in any other players and they have no assets that anyone would want in a trade.  It would make sense to rebuild, but because of the presence of Shaq they have to play every season to try to make the playoffs.  They cannot allow themselves to rest Wade and play for the future.  Maybe they can buy Shaq out and go for a good draft pick, but financially they will still be a quagmire of poor contracts and poor players.  Will Wade want to wait around for a rebuilding project?  He signed an abbreviated extension that will allow him to become a free agent at the end of the 2009-2010 season.  Don’t think he will not leave after that deal is up. 

For all the debate over which star has the worst supporting cast in the NBA give me Wade over Kobe or LeBron by a mile for having to play with that pathetic bunch.  Because of that, I can see him leaving town at the earliest opportunity. 

 - But, who cares about the Heat?  Let’s get back to the Nuggets.  This is Born a Nuggets Fan, not Born a Heat Fan.  Obviously Kenyon Martin was great last night.  I had two concerns when they traded for him.  First of all, why do a sign and trade giving him an even higher salary and sacrificing three first round picks when it was pretty obvious that the Nets were not going to match, but that is all water from the river Kiki was sent up the river on under the bridge.  More importantly I was worried about his ability to guard the Duncans and Garnetts of the world.  Now that he has played for the Nuggets for a few seasons, and unfortunately not played for a couple, he proved that he does a decent job of defending in the post against almost any player.   

When the Nuggets are running, and he is healthy, Martin is as valuable of a player as the Nuggets anticipated him to be when they traded for him.  The problem comes in when they start playing a half court style game where he becomes just an average player.  He takes too many jumpers and has no offensive move he can rely on in the post, but we knew those things when they signed him.  In order for the Nuggets to get the most out of him, and really out of their entire roster, they must run every game. 

From a health perspective Kenyon is looking better and better every game.  He is definitely getting his explosiveness back as he threw down a handful of monster dunks last night.  We will have to enjoy it while it lasts because the likelihood of him suffering another injury is about equal to the likelihood of people being upset with politicians or kids making fun of portly people. 

 - I mentioned how I thought it was very sad that the Nuggets labeled November as a positive month because they won ten games.  Of course the Nuggets have a handful of excuses as to why they struggled in some winnable games.  One of those excuses was injuries.  You all know how I feel about that.  This roster has plenty of depth to handle a couple of players missing games here and there (especially when one of them is Chucky Atkins).  The second excuse I have heard leak out is the fact that they played five back to back games during November.   

How about we examine that for a minute?  They went 2-3 in the five second halves of back to back games.  Remove those five games and they were still only 8-4, which is good, but not great.  They have 14 more back to back sets this season.  Do we have to write off more than half of those as losses?   

I looked back at last season’s schedules for several teams to see how they did on back to backs.  Believe it or not Nuggets players, it is possible to win after playing the night before. The five teams that finished ahead of the Nuggets last season and their records on the second night of back to backs look like this:

Dallas Mavericks 14-1
Phoenix Suns 14-7
San Antonio Spurs 12-4
Houston Rockets 9-9
Utah Jazz 9-9

And then we have the Denver Nuggets who came in with a record in the second half of back to backs last season at 8-12.  As pointed out earlier, they have started this year at 2-3.  If you are good at math, you may notice that 8-12 and 2-3 are equal ratios.  They both equate to a .400 winning percentage.  If the Nuggets carry on the type of play they have exhibited on the second half of back to backs last year and the first month this year, they will end up with a record somewhere around 7-12 or 8-11.  Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and take the better record of 8-11.  Combined with their current seven losses that equals 18 losses that they have or will have.  Thus in order to win 55 games they can only afford to lose nine more games where they enjoy at least one day of rest before tip off.  They have 50 such games left therefore they will have to have a record of 41-9 to reach 55 wins this season.  If we further extrapolate their 8-4 record in those such games they will end up 33-17 or thereabouts.   

Add all of that up and they have a final record of 50-32.  That would give them the fourth 50 win season since joining the NBA and the first since 1987-1988.  Not bad, but definitely not good enough to get home court advantage or a promising matchup in the playoffs.  

Before we start getting excited about a 50 win season, remember that this was what I thought was perhaps the easiest month on their schedule.  To me that means that when things get tougher, it will be reflected in their record and there is no guarantee that they can continue on even at the somewhat disappointing pace they have set. 

What can be done?  It all comes back to the mental crutch the Nuggets allow themselves to utilize.  They give themselves the option of losing certain games before they even play because of injuries.  Now we have found out that they give themselves the option to lose on the tail end of back to backs because those games are more difficult.  The number of games that they allow themselves to lose is growing and growing.  What next?  They do not like the pressure of nationally televised games?  Dancing With The Stars is over so they have too much pent up frustration to focus on the game? 

The Nuggets can still have a fine season, but they will only accomplish as much as their little minds will allow them to.

Chucky Atkins?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I am not enthused about the potential Chucky Atkins signing.  He did have a nice statistical season last year at Memphis, but it is clearly a fluke season.  His Player Efficiency Rating spiked last season at 17.45.  His second best PER season was 13.44.  He is more of a scoring point guard than Steve Blake, but another scorer is not what this team needs.  Atkins is being touted as a better three point shooter than Blake, but each of them sport a career three point shooting average of 37.0%.  Blake is six years younger and entering his prime and Atkins will be 33 starting the season.   

I realize that Blake may be too expensive for the Nuggets, but we do not know that for sure yet.  If Mo Williams ends up signing with Miami instead of Milwaukee the Blake market will dry up.  The Nuggets may be able to get him to agree to a deal at about the same salary as what they will be paying Atkins.   

Blake is the superior point guard and the better fit for the Nuggets. If he signs somewhere for the full midlevel exception then so be it, but the Nuggets should not settle for less until they know they have to. 

Other Developments 

• I was shocked that after holding his rights for so long the Spurs dealt Luis Scola away as part of a salary dump.  The fact that he never had a reasonable buy out was a contributing factor, but to use the rights to a player of his ability to get another team to swallow a player with less than three million dollars in salary (Jackie Butler) was surprising to me. 
• The Nuggets summer league team had a very nice showing against Detroit last night.  Von Wafer had a very nice game scoring 25 points including 11 in the first quarter.  Will Blalock had another nice performance.  He was very efficient scoring 16 points on eight shots, although he was only 5-9 from the free throw line, and he did not turn the ball over.  Jelani McCoy had another double-double and Curtis Sumpter provided more energy and heady play.  If Blalock, McCoy and Sumpter are not in camp this fall, I will be shocked.
• The Rocky Mountain Review kicks off today and rookie prospects such as Al Horford, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Morris Almond will be on display. 

Update:

It is official.  The Nuggets signed Chucky Atkins for $3.2 million in 07-08 and $3.4 million in 08-09.  Steve Blake has agreed to sign with the Trailblazers, but the terms have not been disclosed.  If he signed for $4.0 million or so the Nuggets will have made a big mistake to save about $1.5 million next season.  Giving up Blake for Atkins makes no sense from a basketball perspective. 

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.