Contenders? That is a First for Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I have been a die hard Nuggets fan since the mid 1980s (maybe not quite from the time I was out of the womb) and during that time the Nuggets have never been trumpeted as potential world champs heading into the season.  There have been a few nice teams over the years, and a lot of poor ones, but at no time have the Nuggets been considered anything more than a potential playoff team.   

That is until now. 

I have already gone on record to say that this team will have to show me that they are going to produce at an exceptional level before I believe they actually will.  However, they do have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.  That is a fact.  In the Carmelo Era they have not been able to run with the Suns nor have they been able to plod it out against the Spurs or Mavs.  This year may be different and here is why: 

Healthy Bigs – The Nuggets have not had both Kenyon Martin and Nene available at the same time for the past two seasons.  Both can run the floor, both can guard Tim Duncan, both can pass and both can play at the same time.  Obviously, there is no guarantee that these two will stay healthy and both of them will have their minutes monitored to start the season.  As long they can stay healthy they will make for a strong and versatile front court along with Marcus Camby who can also run the floor and pass very well. 

Melo Still Surging – Carmelo Anthony made another leap forward in his development as a player the first part of last season.  That was derailed by the suspension for the brawl with the pathetic Knicks.  Melo has become more and more efficient as a scorer and he continues to develop as evidenced by his performance in the Tournament of the Americas.   

He is a very complete offensive player, but he has three weaknesses.  He settles for too many midrange jumpers.  He can make them though and if he can make them at the rate he did in Las Vegas this summer, this may not be a weakness after all.  Second, he gets his shot blocked frequently in the paint.  Melo is an explosive leaper when he is on the move move, but when it comes to launching himself at the rim after being flat footed in the paint, he is not so dynamic.  Lastly, he insists on shooting threes.  Melo cranked them up at a rate of 2.3 three point attempts a game last season.  That is ridiculous considering he is barely more than a 25% shooter from there.  Perhaps there is a silver lining to this cloud as well.  Over the last month of the season and against the Spurs in the playoffs Melo starting hitting his threes.  He shot 21-46 from behind the arc.  Do the math and that is a rate of 46%.  Melo is not going to become Jason Kapono, but if he can hit threes at a 35% rate, or better, he can help answer some of the constant concerns that follow the Nuggets regarding outside shooting.  He has the form to be a good shooter so this is not an unlikely scenario. 

There is no reason not to believe Melo will not make another stride ahead in his development this season which is great news for the Nuggets. 

Road Warriors – The Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins last season and finished with better than a .500 record at 22-19.  This is a team of veterans and they should be tough to rattle on the road.  There is no reason not to expect this group to build on last season’s success. 

Roll out the Role Player – Another area the Nuggets have fallen short the past few seasons of the Melo Era is they have not had that one role player who is capable of driving the stake in Dracula’s heart.  The Spurs have Horry who is always ready to make a big block or hit the big shot.  The Nuggets need a player like that, but is just such a performer on this roster?  The most likely player to grow into that role is Linas Kleiza.  He is developing a solid three point shot and has a knack for being at the right place ar the right time.  A secondary candidate may be Bobby Jones who has been running some with the first team in practices and has shown a quality three point stroke in the preseason.   

No Cruising – The Nuggets have not put a great deal of emphasis on the regular season.  They do want to win their division, but that is no longer a guarantee of having a playoff series with home court advantage against a lesser team.  They realize that a big key to getting out of the first round is avoiding the Spurs.  In order to do that they know they cannot cruise through stretches in the schedule.  Teams that earn home court advantage and the right to play the Lakers and Grizzlies of the world in the first round do not take games off.  I think the Nuggets recognize this and will put a new sense of urgency into the regular season. 

What does it all mean though?  Again, I have heard all the right things coming from Nuggets’ players the past two or three seasons in training camp, but when the season starts expectations are rarely met.  If the Nuggets have truly learned from the past few seasons and they are ready to validate that potential NBA champion label that some have affixed on them, we should know right off the bat.   

This team has been plagued by slow starts the past three seasons.  I believe we will know if the Nuggets are for real by the end of November.  This team has a legitimate shot to start off in the 13-4 or even 14-3 range.  They do not play San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas or Utah and only play the Rockets once during that stretch.  However, if we are looking at another 10-7 start, I am afraid that it will be more of the same for Nuggets fans in 2007-2008.    

That would be very disappointing for the first season in my life where the Nuggets are considered to be championship contenders. 

Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Chucky Atkins?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I am not enthused about the potential Chucky Atkins signing.  He did have a nice statistical season last year at Memphis, but it is clearly a fluke season.  His Player Efficiency Rating spiked last season at 17.45.  His second best PER season was 13.44.  He is more of a scoring point guard than Steve Blake, but another scorer is not what this team needs.  Atkins is being touted as a better three point shooter than Blake, but each of them sport a career three point shooting average of 37.0%.  Blake is six years younger and entering his prime and Atkins will be 33 starting the season.   

I realize that Blake may be too expensive for the Nuggets, but we do not know that for sure yet.  If Mo Williams ends up signing with Miami instead of Milwaukee the Blake market will dry up.  The Nuggets may be able to get him to agree to a deal at about the same salary as what they will be paying Atkins.   

Blake is the superior point guard and the better fit for the Nuggets. If he signs somewhere for the full midlevel exception then so be it, but the Nuggets should not settle for less until they know they have to. 

Other Developments 

• I was shocked that after holding his rights for so long the Spurs dealt Luis Scola away as part of a salary dump.  The fact that he never had a reasonable buy out was a contributing factor, but to use the rights to a player of his ability to get another team to swallow a player with less than three million dollars in salary (Jackie Butler) was surprising to me. 
• The Nuggets summer league team had a very nice showing against Detroit last night.  Von Wafer had a very nice game scoring 25 points including 11 in the first quarter.  Will Blalock had another nice performance.  He was very efficient scoring 16 points on eight shots, although he was only 5-9 from the free throw line, and he did not turn the ball over.  Jelani McCoy had another double-double and Curtis Sumpter provided more energy and heady play.  If Blalock, McCoy and Sumpter are not in camp this fall, I will be shocked.
• The Rocky Mountain Review kicks off today and rookie prospects such as Al Horford, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Morris Almond will be on display. 

Update:

It is official.  The Nuggets signed Chucky Atkins for $3.2 million in 07-08 and $3.4 million in 08-09.  Steve Blake has agreed to sign with the Trailblazers, but the terms have not been disclosed.  If he signed for $4.0 million or so the Nuggets will have made a big mistake to save about $1.5 million next season.  Giving up Blake for Atkins makes no sense from a basketball perspective. 

The Circle is Now Complete

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Remember back at the 2003 NBA Lottery when the number one pick in the draft had come down to the Grizzlies and Cavilers for the chance to draft LeBron James.  The other subplot was if Memphis did not land the top pick, then Detroit received the pick as part of a trade for Otis Thorpe that had been agreed to several years prior to the events that were unfolding that night. 

We all remember the look on Jerry West’s face when he saw that not only did he miss out on LeBron James, but he was going to have to ship the number two pick in the draft to Detroit.  Equally as memorable was Detroit deciding to select Darko Milicic with that pick they received from Memphis instead of Melo. 

Why am I recounting all of this?  Reports are circulating that Darko has agreed to sign with Memphis.  It may not be much consolation for missing out on LeBron, but they just got theit old number two pick back and all it will cost them is a little bit of cash.

Hopefully now Jerry West can sleep a little better at night.

Does the Lottery Need to be Fixed?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Everyone is concerned with fixing the lottery and stopping tanking.  The point has been made that tanking has never proven to be an effective strategy.  Experience has shown that the likelihood of receiving the top pick is not greatly increased by finishing a couple of spots lower in the standings.  Case in point, which two teams tanked the most this season?  Boston and Milwaukee.  Where are they drafting?  Fifth and sixth. 

With the three worst teams by record missing out on the first three picks everyone is going to want to change the system.  Most people want to increase the chances of the worst teams winning the top pick.  Between the Grizzlies, Celtics and Bucks they had a combined probability of over 60% that one of them would end up with the first pick.  How much more likely does it need to be?  Also, the other eleven teams have to have some chance of winning or else it is not a lottery.

I have two ideas to change the lottery.  One idea is to eliminate some of the better teams from the lottery by only allowing the teams with the ten worst records.  If teams are still fighting for a playoff spot, they will probably not be thinking about losing games and sacrificing their playoff chances to get into the lottery.  Of course, teams will still want a chance at getting in the lottery and there will still be tanking by the teams that are on the fringe of getting in the lottery or getting left out, but it will not be a month long process. 

Using this year as an example, New Orleans and Los Angeles were in the playoff hunt until the last day or two of the season, and Indiana and Philadelphia were still in the hunt in the last week as well.  We could assume that every season there will be a couple of teams in each conference that will still be fighting for a playoff spot who end up on the outside looking in.  By making the lottery open to only ten teams the probability of a bad team winning increases.  We also do not have to worry about a borderline playoff team ending up with the number one pick, which is why the league went to the weighted system in the first place.  Lets just take the teams that no one wants to see win out of the equation altogether.

My second idea is to draw for the top two picks instead of the top three.  That way the team with the worst record is guaranteed at least a top three pick and the built in disincentive to tank that the lottery is supposed to provide remains intact.  With this idea the worst case scenario of picking third is better than the current worst case scenario of picking fourth. 

Ultimately, does the lottery really need to be changed?  It drew more attention this year because there were two franchise players to be had and everyone wanted a top two pick.  Some seasons there are two or three franchise players, some seasons there are none.  In the end, the lottery did its job and the teams that tried the most to end up with the top pick were left wondering how they ended up picking outside the top two. 

We will never be able to completely eliminate tanking unless the weighting teams chances based on record is eliminated and none of us want that.  Human nature will probably keep telling teams that even if it is not very likely for them to end up with the top pick, their chance are increased by losing games so they are selling themselves short if they do not do all they can to finish with as many ping pong balls as possible.

We just have to hope the lottery keeps doing its job and fate punishes the teams that do what they can to lose games down the stretch instead of win.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.