Game 1: Denver Nuggets 120 – Seattle Supersonics 103

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What was looking to be a relatively disappointing season opener for the Denver Nuggets suddenly exploded into an example of the type of play that the Nuggets will have to sustain throughout the regular season and playoffs for the season to meet the lofty expectations that have been placed on them. 

The Achilles heel for this team over the previous four seasons has been three point shooting.  Well, three point shooting was actually a strength of the Nuggets tonight as their superlative shot making from behind the arc actually blew the game open in the fourth quarter.   

The Nuggets hit 11 threes in 27 attempts even though they missed their last four attempts after the game had been decided.  During the 42 minutes or so the outcome of the game was in doubt, they were 11 for 23.   

I tabbed Linas Kleiza as the player that the Nuggets needed to become the Robert Horry type unheralded role player who could make the big play, or big shot, when the Nuggets needed it.   

Tonight was a great step in that direction.  Linas hit five of his first seven threes including three straight in the fourth quarter to help seal the outcome.  The first Kleiza three of the quarter made it a two possession game as it put the Nuggets up six with just under 11 minutes left in the game.  His next one put the Nuggets up double digits with seven and a half minutes left.  The third put the game away less than a minute later.   

Eduardo Najera made 2 of 3 three pointers he attempted as well.  Before the 06-07 season Najera was hitting threes in practice, but he was never able to bring that part of his game to the court during the regular season.  He has continued to work on it and now has the green light to shoot threes.  If he can keep his confidence up, he should be effective throughout the season. 

Melo was also able to hit his threes.  I mentioned that he had shown a greatly improved shot from downtown at the end of last season.  Tonight he showed that it may not have been a fluke.  Melo hit three of his first four threes before missing his last two.  When Melo sets himself and does not rush it or force the shot, he is very consistent from deep.  His last two misses were somewhat forced and were basically heat checks.  If he can avoid those types of rushed threes, I believe he can be a 40% three point shooter for the season.  However, he has such a scoring mindset, I do not think he can keep from taking those heat check threes after he makes a couple. 

Other thoughts on game one of the 07-08 season:

• AI was very good except for a stretch in the middle of the third quarter where he forced his shot a little too much going 0-4 with two turnovers.  He was very good at attacking the basket and scoring as well as kicking out to open shooters.  I doubt the Nuggets will lose many games where AI has double digit assists.  In fact, the Nuggets are now 12-1 when he does so.
• The defensive focus is still not there.  I do not understand why NBA players cannot understand the basic principle of see man and see ball at the same time.  It is not that difficult to get in position to see what the man with the ball is doing and also know if your man is cutting to the basket at the same time.  On a couple of occasions Seattle players were able to sneak into the paint for an easy layup with no Nugget defender having any idea what was happening.  This is the type of defensive lapse that good teams do not have.
• Nene is absolutely out of shape.  There were rumors going around that Nene was in the same great shape that he was in to close out last year.  I was somewhat skeptical of that since he has been hampered by a calf strain since the Tournament of the Americas, but since the media reported it, I believed it.  I should know better. 
• K-Mart is back, but he is not the old K-Mart.  He played very well in limited minutes, but he does not have the same explosive lift he used to.  Of course, there is no way that he should after two microfracture surgeries.  He still is a tremendous leaper, but not quite at the level he used to be.  He has proven in the preseason and tonight that he can still be very effective and he has still maintained enough of his athleticism that he does not need to alter his game.
• Nuggets fans will have to get used to seeing runs made by both the Nuggets and their opponents.  On at least two occasions the Nuggets were able to take a ten point lead only to see the Sonics charge back and reclaim the lead.  Because of the pace the Nuggets play at they can make spurts, but they are also susceptible to giving up spurts.  The Suns have the same problem.
• Durant played at the level that most everyone expected.  He is still struggling to adjust to the NBA game, but he showed that he can score in a variety of ways.  He is settling for his jumper too often, but as we have seen with Melo, it is so easy for these guys to take a relatively open 20 footer that it takes time for them to learn to pass on that shot and drive or keep the ball moving.  Durant is absolutely going to be amazing.  I expect him to post numbers very similar to what Carmelo did his rookie year with his points per game average surging as the season goes on.

 Congratulations to the Nuggets on a win to open the regular season that will hopefully kick start them on their way to that 14-3 start I am hoping for. 

Worthless fact:
The Nuggets have made 11 three pointers in their past two regular season games dating back to the last game of the 06-07 season in San Antonio. 

Chucky Atkins?

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I am not enthused about the potential Chucky Atkins signing.  He did have a nice statistical season last year at Memphis, but it is clearly a fluke season.  His Player Efficiency Rating spiked last season at 17.45.  His second best PER season was 13.44.  He is more of a scoring point guard than Steve Blake, but another scorer is not what this team needs.  Atkins is being touted as a better three point shooter than Blake, but each of them sport a career three point shooting average of 37.0%.  Blake is six years younger and entering his prime and Atkins will be 33 starting the season.   

I realize that Blake may be too expensive for the Nuggets, but we do not know that for sure yet.  If Mo Williams ends up signing with Miami instead of Milwaukee the Blake market will dry up.  The Nuggets may be able to get him to agree to a deal at about the same salary as what they will be paying Atkins.   

Blake is the superior point guard and the better fit for the Nuggets. If he signs somewhere for the full midlevel exception then so be it, but the Nuggets should not settle for less until they know they have to. 

Other Developments 

• I was shocked that after holding his rights for so long the Spurs dealt Luis Scola away as part of a salary dump.  The fact that he never had a reasonable buy out was a contributing factor, but to use the rights to a player of his ability to get another team to swallow a player with less than three million dollars in salary (Jackie Butler) was surprising to me. 
• The Nuggets summer league team had a very nice showing against Detroit last night.  Von Wafer had a very nice game scoring 25 points including 11 in the first quarter.  Will Blalock had another nice performance.  He was very efficient scoring 16 points on eight shots, although he was only 5-9 from the free throw line, and he did not turn the ball over.  Jelani McCoy had another double-double and Curtis Sumpter provided more energy and heady play.  If Blalock, McCoy and Sumpter are not in camp this fall, I will be shocked.
• The Rocky Mountain Review kicks off today and rookie prospects such as Al Horford, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Morris Almond will be on display. 

Update:

It is official.  The Nuggets signed Chucky Atkins for $3.2 million in 07-08 and $3.4 million in 08-09.  Steve Blake has agreed to sign with the Trailblazers, but the terms have not been disclosed.  If he signed for $4.0 million or so the Nuggets will have made a big mistake to save about $1.5 million next season.  Giving up Blake for Atkins makes no sense from a basketball perspective. 

Accute Summer League Obsservations

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• Marco Belinelli has been the most enjoyable player to watch. He is a complete chucker, but has been dialed in enough to make a great first impression.  He is one of those players who seems to be a better shooter when turning around with a hand in his face than spotting up wide open.  Of course, so far he has made plenty of shots both open and well defended.  He is also a tremendous passer always hitting his teammates in stride no matter how small of a window he has to squeeze the pass through.
• Golden State has the most entertaining team as a whole.  Along side of Belinelli they have Pierre Pierce, who was kicked off the team at Iowa a couple of seasons ago and Kelenna Azubuike from Kentucky who played with them sparingly last season.  These three have pushed the pace and set each other up beautifully.  They all have been making the right decision every time down the court.
• Jose Juan Berea has had a marvelous start to his summer.  The mighty mite has done a great job of running the offense while scoring points when he has to.  He would be a great change of pace point guard for Dallas to bring off the bench next season.  Devin Harris can play fast, but not like Berea and he is nowhere near the shooter Berea is.
• The next time that either Johan Petro or Mouhamed Sene pass out of the post will be the first.  These guys have been complete black holes.  I am sure the coaches want them to work on their post up game, but they should not ignore working on passing out of the post since that is what both of them will be doing most of the time in the NBA.
• Kevin Durant has absolutely been a disappointment. Everyone will say that it is just summer league, but a player with his abilities should not be shooting 25%.  He has two more games to turn it around.  The fact that he has not recorded an assist after the attention he gets from defenses is absurd.  On the bright side, he has done a good job of drawing fouls even though many of them are non shooting fouls and some of his statistical ineptitude can be attributed to whoever the official scorer is.  Against the Knicks he blocked a couple of shots in the first half that he did not get credit for, stole a pass that he did not get credit for and he definitely had more than one rebound.
• Yi Jianlian has been decent.  Like Durant he has not really gotten in a groove yet. The talent is there.  His offensive game is already relatively polished.  He has good footwork and it is difficult to not be impressed when you see his spin move in the post and his step back jumper on the perimeter.  He will be a very good inside out offensive player.  Like Durant, he draws a lot of non shooting fouls because he posts up so aggressively.
• Somehow Marcus Banks scored 42 points and made four out of five three pointers in the Suns first game.  He must have thought he was back in college at UNLV.  I watched the archived broadcast of the Phoenix/Cleveland game (just to see how on earth Banks scored 42 points) and the announcer must have been Marcus Banks’ old roommate from UNLV.  Whenever someone scored he said the player’s first name and then yelled their last name while increasing the volume and pitch.  Every time someone scored it was the same.  There was one instance where he did something different.  Marcus Banks made a common everyday one handed break away dunk and he suddenly yells, “Slam Dunk!” followed by the standard, “Marcus BANKS!”  I wondered if he would get that excited about every dunk and on the next possession Dwayne Jones dunked for Cleveland and we once again treated with the standard first and last name.  How disappointing that must have been for Dwayne.  There may have been more than 20 people watching this game from the stands if they just had silence instead of the announcer doing his shtick.  It got old fast.
• Louis Williams has been a scoring machine.  He has been able to get to the basket at will and his jumper looks to be much improved.  He plays a similar style to Iverson which makes it doubtful his success will translate with the parent club as he will not be able to dominate the ball.  He will be able to score though if he is given the chance and his constant parade to the free throw line shows that he is being aggressive attacking the basket and not just settling for jumpers.
• Former Nugget fan favorite Ryan Bowen is on the Timberwolves summer league team.  It still makes me mad that Nugget fans were so attached to him.  I appreciated his hustle as much as anyone, but for people to have said if they traded him they would stop watching the Nuggets was a joke.  He is a 10^th man at best on a shallow roster.  Enjoy his hustle, but do not make him a folk hero.  Of course these comments are about five years to late, but I did not have a blog back then.
• The Nuggets are getting very good performances from Will Blalock, Jelani McCoy, Curtis Sumpter and the prize prospect Von Wafer.

Blalock has done a good job pushing the pace, making the right decision when running the offense and has played pretty solid defense.  If Steve Blake ends up going somewhere else, they will replace him with a veteran, but they will probably be interested in bringing in a young player like Blalock to add a prospect for the future.

McCoy has been very good showing his athleticism and shot blocking ability.  He definitely belongs on someone’s bench. His offense has been limited to put backs, but he is playing very well.  At worst he is a player that you could put on Tim Duncan for a few spot minutes and would provide insurance in case of foul trouble.  We mentioned him as a potential replacement for Jamal Sampson and at this point, Sampson has the size advantage, but McCoy has an advantage in the athleticism department.  He can run the floor very well which is important for a Nuggets big man.  McCoy is listed at his standard 245, but he looks bigger to me than he did in the past.

Going into summer league play we mentioned Curtis Sumpter is an intriguing player and he just needed to be able to shoot from outside.  Well, he has done that and more.  He has shown a very good feel for when to slash to the basket, made some nice passes, been active and even made a couple of three pointers.  If he continues to play like this, he should be invited to camp along with Blalock and McCoy.

Von Wafer is the player with the best shot at being in the rotation next season and he has been good, but not great.  He missed all four of his three point attempts in their first game, but cashed in on three of four in the second game including an angry three after missing two free throws with a defender in his face (on the three pointer, not the free throws).  He has also done a good job being aggressive and making his way into the lane by utilizing a pump fake on the perimeter.  He even tried to ram a dunk down on top of Pops Mensah-Bonsu the pogo stick from George Washington and drew the foul.  He has not been a star, but is definitely showing why the Nuggets are excited about him.

Larry O’Bannon played very well in the second game showing a good touch from outside and solid athleticism after barely seeing the floor in game one.

I ripped Lamond Murray’s inclusion on the Nuggets’ roster and despite a very solid shooting performance in the first game I stand by it.  He was much worse in game two.  They conveniently forgot to list his birth date on his summer league profile page, but undeterred I found out that he turned 34 in April.

Skita has shown progress in his understanding of the game, but is still no where near being an NBA player.  He has one of the worst spin moves when driving the lane, but he insists on using it often.  Most players change direction when they spin to get around a defender or seal the defender on their back.  Skita just barrels straight ahead into the defender.  It is neither graceful nor effective. 

Other players that have not looked good at all are Dontaye Draper, Bracey Wright and Matt Freije.  Sorry to any family members or college buddies of these three who may have read that, but it is true.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

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 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Welcome to the Northwest Division Greg and Kevin!

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The NBA Lottery drama is over and it is time to start getting back to some more Nugget specific posts.  The lottery had a potentially huge impact on Denver last night as two of our division rivals are poised to add a sure thing future star.  The star power in the Northwest Division is on the rise. 

Portland is an up and coming team with some really nice young talent.  The have the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, the second overall pick in the draft from last year in LeMarcus Aldridge, a raw point guard with amazing potential in Sergio Rodriguez and now they will probably be adding Greg Oden to roam the paint.  (Also, do not forget about Joel Freeland either.  Odds are that he will end up a rotation player at best, but a lot of scouts were very high on him heading into the draft last season.)  If there is a team with a better talent base to build off of with the potential to be dominant in two or three years, I would like to know who it is. 

Portland also has the option to draft Durant, which might actually be the best choice for them.  Picking Durant would give them a starting five of Jack/Rodriguez, Roy, Durant, Randolph and Aldridge.  Anyone want to bet against that group being dominant in three years?  Me neither.  I actually think that Durant is a better fit for this team as Oden is going to have to operate on the block, which will minimize Randolph’s opportunities there.   Randolph has a decent perimeter game, but Nate McMillen worked very hard last season to get Zach to focus on playing inside instead of outside.  If Oden is the pick, look for Randolph to be traded. 

Seattle may have won the rights to the second pick in the draft, but it is not a cure all for them.  However, this pick gives them the potential to really blow things up and start from scratch.  Durant is a big upgrade over Rashard Lewis as a defender, rebounder and general all around force, and they can now work out a sign and trade for Lewis with the knowledge that they have someone to not only take his place, but exceed his production.  Ray Allen has been the star and face of the franchise since he arrived, but Durant’s star power will allow them to move Ray.  They should be able to get some pretty nice pieces by trading Allen and/or Lewis. 

On the other hand, if Seattle hangs onto Lewis and Allen, they are just a point guard away from being able to go small and run a Phoenix type system.  Seattle has been a team that has tried to outscore the opposition for the past three or four years, adding Durant gives them three 20+ point per game scorers.  Either way, the Sonics are going to be much better in the near future.  It will be interesting to see what they do, because they seem to believe that the division title they won three years ago was legit.  The only reason they have not repeated was because of injuries and at any time they will return to their rightful place as division champs.  I tend to disagree with that assessment though.

The big losers in the lottery, other than Boston and Memphis, may turn out to be Denver, Utah and Minnesota, but the team that may have had a nail driven in the coffin last night was Minnesota.  Not only did they not move up from the seventh selection, they are on the verge of becoming the least talented team in the Northwest Division.  It is one thing for Kevin Garnett to be on a team that just misses the playoffs by a couple of games, but to be on the worst team in the division would probably cause Garnett to spontaneously combust. 

From the Nuggets’ perspective, they should still be a better team than Portland and Seattle next season, but over the next couple of seasons things could change quickly.  Iverson’s contract expires in two years and if he does not believe that Denver is a contender, he will definitely look to sign somewhere else.  Aside form his contract his health could expire at any time.  Add in Camby who is always a health risk and Kenyon Martin who is barely a risk to ever actually be healthy and the Nuggets are paying a lot of money for what is far from a sure thing. 

Right now the Northwest Division belongs to Utah and Denver, but in a couple of years it may be Portland and Seattle’s division.  Then again, maybe Oden turns into Sam Bowie and Durant ends up playing like Keith Van Horn.  Just don’t count on it.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.