Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports is going on here? 

The Northwest Division is in turmoil.  Denver remains in first place, but Portland is on a nine game winning streak and has surpassed Utah.  The Jazz are 1-8 over their previous nine games and actually out of the top eight in the west at this point.  Even though the Nuggets are in first they are only 6-7 since they hit their high point of 8-3 earlier in the season.   

Will Denver or Utah ever get their sad little acts together?  Right now it is a race between two Yugos that have had their little engines replaced with some 500 horsepower beast of an engine.  Both cars sound great when you step on the gas, but the driver’s cannot steer and rainwater is pouring in through the windows.   

I keep waiting for Utah to bounce back thinking that every loss is rock bottom, but they continue to find new low after new low.  If the Nuggets go through a stretch like that this season there would not be an unbroken piece of glass, mirror or television screen left in my house.   

There is a bright spot the size of a gnats’ jimmy for the Jazz it is that seven of those eight losses were on the road.  The losses to the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers can be explained away, but the last two defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Bobcats must be especially disturbing to Utah.   

Once again rock bottom may be a few more rungs down as their next three games are at Orlando, at Miami, home against Dallas and then at the Lakers.  As a Nugget fan, I am enjoying every floor the Jazz crash through as they plummet to the basement.   

Portland is an amazing story.  Written off before the season started they have interrupted the exclusive meeting of western playoff contenders with some very impressive play the past three weeks.  After watching the recording of the game they had against the Nuggets the other night I believe more than ever that they earned that game.  Their shooting in the third quarter was quite impressive.  Tonight they had another strong comeback against the Raptors to keep their streak alive. 

Even with their incredible current streak it is difficult to see Portland ending up much better than .500.  They are still young and this winning streak cannot go on much longer the way they have barely eked out some of those games.  Once this momentum ends we will see what they are really made out of.  As opposed to Utah who is feeling the pain on the road, Portland has enjoyed a hoard of home games as they have won six of the nine games at home.  Their run may still have some legs to it though as their next four games are at home and they may very well have vaulted into first place by then. 

We have been over and over the Nuggets’ situation because that is what we do here.  We can now count the Nugg Doctor among the growing number of fans who believe this team will be battling inconsistency all season.  It is clear that the Nuggets can play better and I am sure they will.  The return of Nene will help, but many of you already know I believe Chucky Atkins will be about as useful as a concrete pillow.  Anthony Carter is a much better player, especially on defense, and Carter has done a great job of hitting open shots, which is all Atkins is good for.   

The inconsistent play is not just plaguing the Northwest Division.  Houston has not been anywhere near as good as advertised.  They are closer to Sacramento than they are to the eighth seed and that is not because the Kings are any good.  Phoenix is currently enduring a 2-4 stretch.  Dallas has decided not to focus so stringently on the regular season after realizing that killing yourself to win 67 games does not necessarily do much to help you get past the first round of the playoffs.  San Antonio came out of the gates red hot, but they have never placed much emphasis on the regular season.  They are not going to kill themselves to maximize their regular season win total.   

The only two teams that have been consistent from start of the season through today are the Lakers and the Hornets.  I guess the Timberwolves and SuperSonics have been very consistent as well, but not in a good way.  Neither the Lakers nor the Hornets have played a cake schedule, both have had a pretty even mix of road and home games and neither one has undergone a damaging losing streak.   

The wild card in the west has to be Golden State.  Even since Stephen Jackson, who claims to “make love to pressure,” (actual Stephen Jackson quote that makes you wonder who is responsible for the birth control in that relationship) returned from his suspension they have been sensational.  They may not be an elite team, but they have not had what I would call a “bad loss” since Jackson started suiting up.  I think they will definitely level out a bit, but they must be considered a legitimate team in the race for the fourth seed. 

In the end I am sure some combination of the Spurs, Mavs and Suns will possess the top three records in the west at season’s end, but is there any team out there who you believe is a shoe in for that fourth spot?  If I had to pick a team with my family’s life on the line I would have to try to kill all the bad guys who held them captive because even though I am a supreme wuss I would have better odds at going John McClain on them than correctly selecting the team that will end up fourth.   

This may all seem a bit uneven, but after all of this analysis I am here to deliver good news to Nuggets fans.  They are in that fourth spot right now as they are currently leading the division.  Nevermind the fact that they only have the sixth best record and they are equally close to the eighth spot as the fourth.   

That fourth spot would guarantee one thing.  The Nuggets would not have to play the Spurs, Suns or Mavs until round two.  Of course, last time they avoided one of the top teams they were embarrassed and eviscerated by the Clippers.   

That series proved that losing to the Spurs is not so bad after all.  At least there is some dignity in it.

Game 22: Denver Nuggets 105 – New Orleans Hornets 99

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

NBA.com Game Report (they give more indepth stats than ESPN.com, thus the switch)

Many times I can start writing this drivel during the game and have a good idea what the outcome of the game is going to be.  Not tonight.  It is early in the fourth quarter and I have no idea who is going to win this game.  The Hornets won a very similar game in Denver the third game of the season. 

The mistakes the Nuggets made tonight are as numerous as the empty seats at the Pepsi Center.  Think of a mistake and the Nuggets made it.  Poor rotation on defense, stagnant offense, questionable shot selection, lack of focus and an attitude of contentment if that is a word. 

It was proof over and over about how one player blowing his assignment can derail a team.  Almost every play in the second quarter could be used as an example, but I will mention a couple of gaffs I witnessed throughout the game.   

On one occasion Kenyon Martin was supposed to be guarding David West.  He ran down the floor alongside Paul seemingly happy to have the use of his legs.  I cannot say I blame Kenyon for enjoying the ability to run, but he still needs to do his job.  He continued to run with no apparent purpose into the lane absolutely clueless as to where his man was.  Well West was spotted up at the top of the circle.  Paul simply passed the ball to the wide open West who easily sank the jumper. 

On at least two occasions when playing zone Melo was pinned inside as Rasual Butler was left open in the corner.  Melo should know from his time at Syracuse, where he played zone exclusively, not to get pinned because if the outside baseline defender is pinned, no one can get to the corner.  It is a play that every high school coach in the country warns his players about.  However, I have noticed that many of those high school defensive fundamentals apparently have no place in the NBA. 

Anthony Carter took himself completely out of a play by not only running, but diving at the ball and sliding into the first row.  He is lucky he did not get a beer dumped on his head. 

Eduardo Najera was guarding Tyson Chandler about ten feet from the basket on the baseline.  All seemed well with the world, but when the shot went up he did not back into Chandler at all.  Najera stood there only a foot or two away from Chandler, who happens to be the number one offensive rebounder in the entire NBA, and when the rebound came off Chandler was able to get it.  Had Najera even just made contact with him Chandler could not have grabbed the rebound.  What is really strange is Najera is the kind of player who would box out his grandma if she dropped a donut.  It is almost second nature to him. 

However, the most embarrassing mistake came when Anthony Carter was called for a foul and proceeded to the bench even though the Nuggets had not subbed for him.  The Hornets, playing 5-4, scored an easy dunk on the other end.  Fortunately Anthony did report for the chance to score on the offensive end. 

I am probably reminding you of your wife right now remembering every little mistake and then refusing to let them go, but there was play after play where the Nuggets made little mistakes similar to those.  I am only listing a few that I remember.  It was a game that would have been fun to watch the film of together and laugh at all the silly goofs. 

However, in the end the Nuggets made a strong commitment and won the game because of their lock down D.  Anthony Carter, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby made it almost impossible for the Hornets to run their high pick and roll, which they ran almost exclusively in the fourth quarter.  Carter got up close and personal with Chris Paul who was the dominant player in the game for the first 42 minutes of action.  Kenyon and Camby jumped Paul coming off the screens aggressively and Carter quickly got back in Paul’s mug.  Paul had absolutely no room to operate.   

The play that I believe turned the tide happened with 4:28 left in the fourth quarter.  Camby jumped Paul on a screen and stole the ball.  Starting with that play Paul committed two turnovers and had the ball knocked away at least three other times.   

Camby also made the key play on offense tipping the ball twice before getting it in the hoop after Iverson took a bad three giving the Nuggets the lead for good at 101-99. 

Even though the Nuggets were expected to win tonight this game definitely goes into the category of a good win.  Melo was struggling mightily with his offensive game, they were playing sloppy on both ends of the floor and the Hornets were shooting very well.  Despite all of that the Nuggets persevered and earned their second impressive victory in three games (the other being at Dallas). 

Other Observations From Game 22:

 - I thought Melo played about as good a game as he had all season.  He was struggling like I had never seen him struggle with his offensive game.  I thought he definitely forced some shots in the first half, but he also made an effort to post up and drive to the basket.  Absolutely nothing was working for him.  In the past, he would have blown up and done something stupid.   

Instead, he decided to work his butt off on the offensive glass.  He ended up with four offensive rebounds, but was in the mix for probably about twice that number.   

His hard work was rewarded in the fourth quarter.  Anthony broke out his slump in a big way by going 5-7 from the floor and 4-4 from the line totaling 15 big points.   

Melo struggled with his shot for four games and the Nuggets were able to win three of those four games.  In the past when he was bad on offense, the Nuggets had no chance to win.   

 - Anthony Carter is slowly winning me over.  His defense on point guards is something the Nuggets need badly.  You should all know by now that I am no fan of Chucky Atkins.  The only benefit Atkins can bring is supposed to be outside shooting.  Atkins is only a 37% three point shooter, which is solid, but that small benefit is not worth giving him time over superior players.  Carter is not a good three point shooter, as I have pointed out previously he is a very good perimeter shooter from 20 feet and in.  You can stretch the floor from 20 feet just as easily as you can from 23′ 9″. 

 - I mentioned that the Nuggets made the mistake of contentment.  What I meant by that was they went on a 9-0 run to take the lead early in the third quarter.  After that they seemed to grow a little happy with themselves and they went on to fall back behind by nine not long after they took the lead. 

 - Iverson had another strong game.  He struggled with his shot in the second half, but still ended up shooting 8-16 and he ended up with 11 assists.   

 - I have to give George Karl credit tonight.  According to Julie Browman (believe it or not, people actually do internet searches for Julie Browman.  I know because some of them have found Born a Nuggets Fan by searching for her) Karl was repeatedly encouraging the Nuggets and pleading with them to work through their frustration.  He knew that Melo was exceedingly frustrated and the team was down double digits in the second quarter due largely to some of the weird mistakes they were making that I referenced earlier.  Karl knew what the team was feeling and he addressed it directly.  Now click here to proceed to FireGeorgeKarl.com.

 - The Nuggets are now tied for third in the Western Conference with New Orleans.  Teams such as Dallas, Utah and especially Houston are struggling.  If the Nuggets end up in the top four, it will be more because of teams stumbling than the Nuggets reaching that 55-60 win mark.  I will be very interested to see how they react to this recent success.  They play at San Antonio, who should have Tim Duncan back, next so the quality tests continue

For some insight on the game from the perspective of Hornets fans check out Hornets 24/7.

Game 20: Denver Nuggets 122 – Dallas Mavericks 109

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

The Denver Nuggets have their first signature win of the 2007-2008 season.  They played with purpose and focus.  After showing the mental strength of a group of teenage boys sniffing glue in their previous few games they possessed a tremendous mental fortitude that had been sorely lacking.   

Coming into tonight’s game I said I wanted to see the Nuggets react with some backbone when the Mavericks put together a second half run.  The Mavericks run came late in the third quarter as they were able to whittle the Nuggets once plump lead down to one point on a couple occasions.  I began to wonder if the Nuggets would fold as they have on more than one occasion this season.  They most certainly did not.  From the time the Mavs got within 92-91 the Nuggets went on a 30-14 run to seal the game.    

They were constantly looking to push the ball up the floor even when they did not seem to have numbers.  By running the ball up the floor instead of walking it up opportunities can be created that would not have been there even though the defense is not outnumbered.  A true running team will can They had 22 fast break points in the first half alone and even though they only added two more in the second half, they played at a  good tempo.   

When they had to run their half court offense they took their time, were active cutting to the basket and took good shots.  They definitely played a very smart offensive game from start to finish. 

The best statistical proof that they were being patient and taking good shots is the fact that despite the fact they were hitting their threes early, they only took ten for the entire game making five.  The ten attempts was easily a season low.   

Other impressive stats that came out of the game are the Nuggets shot 50.5% from the field, they outscored the Mavs 64-36 in the paint and they absconded with the ball 13 times as opposed to only seven turnovers.   

The Nuggets were not just better on offense.  They scrambled much better on defense and they were intelligent with their defensive positioning.  The Mavs are very good about reversing the ball from the strong side to the weak side.  Last night against the Lakers the Nuggets weak side positioning was atrocious and it allowed the Lakers to take advantage of a bevy of wide open threes.  Tonight against the Mavs they were much more disciplined and made sure that they were able to react to any pass the Mavs made.   

They also played very little zone defense against Dallas.  I understand the need to mix it up a little from time to time, but the less zone the Nuggets play the better.   

Other Observations From Game 20: 

 - Melo had a terrible shooting night, but he did continue to attack the rim more than he had in the past.  There were a couple of situations where he probably should have gone to the line, but did not get the call.  In fact, he was great in the third quarter when the Mavs made their run.  He worked the offensive glass and hit a couple of nice jumpers.   

 - Melo started the fourth quarter on the bench and watched Iverson close the game out as the Mavs could not handle his ability to penetrate.  He drove on Devin Harris, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse on successive possessions early in the fourth.  It seemed almost every possession he scored or made the assist.  From what I hear Phil Jackson would have called it a “Brokeback Mountain Quarter.” 

 - One of my pet peeves in basketball right now is the two for one at the end of quarters.  How often do you see a player throw up a bad shot just with the hope that they can throw up another bad shot with the clock winding down.  Notice how often a bad shot is taken and how often there end up being more than two possessions left in the quarter.  I know it makes sense on paper, but so does Communism.   

 - I do not think I am a big fan of Reggie Miller as an announcer.   

 - In the fourth quarter Iversom bumped Dirk on the elbow on a layup and the way Dirk reacted made me very concerned that he was potentially going to miss a few games.  He grimaced, yelped at the refs and waved his arm around like Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack when his drive bounced off the ball washer and hit him.  (“My arm…it’s broken!”)  Dirk has been accused of a lack of toughness and I wonder what his teammates think when they see him react like that.   

There was a kid I grew up with who always cried every day at Young America soccer practice when he was kicked in the shin.  He cried in football, even in high school.  He cried on the playground.  When we made it to high school he ended up being a state champion heavyweight wrestler.  Despite his accomplishment did I ever think of him as tough?  Absolutely not.  I remember the whining and crying. 

Dirk won the MVP last season, a tremendous accomplishment, but what are the chances his teammates think of him as tough?  I may be wrong, but I think demonstrations like the one tonight stick in their heads. 

 - Allen Iverson was absolutely amazing again tonight.  Once again he shot a high percentage from the floor, 12-19, and made it to the line continually, 11-13.  He also played 43 more minutes.  The man is a physical marvel.  After seeing him play in person over the past few months, nothing he does from here on out will surprise me.  He could be averaging 40 minutes a game in ten years and I will not be shocked.  Well, maybe a little shocked, but I am not going to put it past him.

 - I always have to complain about something so here it is.  The Mavs outrebounded the Nuggets by 12 and they grabbed 16 offensive boards.  Had the Mavs shot better the game might have turned out differently.  Of course, the Nuggets defense was a big reason why the Mavericks did not shoot better.

 For insight into tonight’s game from a Maverick centric point view check out Mavs Moneyball.

Game 19: Denver Nuggets 107 – Los Angeles Lakers 111

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

It is easy to dwell on how amazing Allen Iverson was tonight.  He was incendiary.  It was awesome to watch, but it is all overshadowed by the outcome of the game.   

The Nuggets tend to get a little too cute on defense coming up with schemes where they believe they can take advantage of a matchup here or there, but once again tonight they out-thought themselves.  When Chris Mihm was in the game in the first half Camby did not guard him unless he entered the paint.  (I know about the box and one with one guy playing man to man, but what is it called when four guys play man to man and the other plays zone?  The dot and four?)  This unconventional defense left the Nuggets confused on their rotations and assignments once someone had to help on a screen or drive.  Because of their confusion they gave up a bevy of wide open three point shots in the second quarter. 

Fortunately in the second half the strategy was abandoned, as far as I could tell and Mihm helped by not straying from the paint anymore, but the damage was done as the Nuggets gave up seven threes in the second quarter alone.  Iverson had his best quarter scoring 18 points, but that was negated by the threes they gave up on defense.  Instead of going into halftime with a six or eight point lead, they were down four. 

There was an aspect of Iverson’s big game that did worry me a little and that was the offense was largely stagnant as Iverson pumped in bucket after bucket.  That is very difficult to avoid when a player like Iverson is taking over the game and there is a good reason to let it happen.  Watching the game unfold you kind of dreaded the potential situation where Iverson either cools off or the rest of the Nuggets have to pick up more of the load on offense.   

The Lakers made sure Iverson did not end up beating them.  Through three quarters Iverson had 49 points.  He scored two in the fourth quarter. 

In the first half the Lakers were frequently doubling Carmelo, but in the fourth quarter the Lakers decided to aggressively double Iverson and take the ball out of his hands.  On a night when J.R. Smith was 1-10, Kenyon Martin was 2-8 and missed three of four free throws in the fourth quarter and Marcus Camby was 0-3 there was not much help to be had.  Anthony had played a decent offensive game up to that point, but went 3-9 in the fourth quarter excluding his meaningless made layup with two seconds left.   

Iverson did his part posting four of his eight assists in the fourth quarter as he tried to set up his teammates as a result of the double teams, but it was a difficult adjustment for the rest of the team to make after he had scored so much on his own for the first three quarters.  He must have felt like he was playing with the likes of Matt Geiger, Eric Snow and Aaron McKee again. 

This game reinforces what I said after the encounter in Los Angeles last week.  The Lakers are simply a better team than the Nuggets at this point in the season.   In several ways the Nuggets outplayed the Lakers tonight.  They ran pretty well putting up 23 fast break points.  They had a slight lead in points in the paint.  They both shot and made 11 more free throws than the Lakers and they outrebounded them as well.  But the big difference in three point shooting was the clincher for the Lakers.   

Thus we see another game go down the tubes that the Nuggets really needed to have.  The Nuggets travel to Dallas tomorrow night (back to back and injury excuse warning!) and if they drop that game they will finish up the first quarter of the season at 11-9. 

In case you were wondering, but even if you were not, the Nuggets have lost six of the seven games they have played in Dallas since Carmelo joined the team.  They usually do not play very well there, but hey who does?   

I will be very interested to see how they respond if Dallas puts a run on them in the second half.   

Other Observations From Game 19:

 - Eduardo Najera is the best cutter on the team.  He has a great sense of timing for when to make his move. 

 - Melo put forth more effort on defense tonight, but it was actually frustrating to watch.  He will play close to his man, denying the ball and staying close to him for a while, but if he gets picked off or if his man moves out to the perimeter after Melo covers him on a cut he will just stop playing.  It almost seems like he is content with what he did and he considers his job to be done.  On a few occasions he just completely stopped.  He was not going for rebounds and he plays absolutely no help defense.  He even stops paying attention to his man.  That is not quiet a commitment to defense.  He is in a relationship with Defense, but he is still seeing his old lady friend Apathy on the side.  I hope Apathy has something going for her and is worth it, because I hate to see Defense treated that way.     

 - I got a kick out of Chris Marlowe pointing out that Melo was taking on the challenge of guarding Kobe at one point in the second quarter.  Melo guarded him for two possessions one of which he was rubbed off by a screen and switched off of Kobe almost immediately.  He was relieved of that duty when Anthony Carter checked back into the game. 

 - The Lakers were playing on the second half of a back to back set and on the road no less, yet somehow they won.  How could that be possible?  Any thoughts on that Marcus? 

 - Again, I do not like just reciting stats out of the box score, but Camby had another 20 rebound game.  He is pouring his heart out on the glass every night, but he still just plays pick and rolls like the ball handler has cooties.  During a key sequence in the last couple of minutes he did not step up to slow down Kobe when all J.R. needed to get back in front was a little help.  Camby just watched him go by and score a layup.  At least he tried to remedy that mistake on the next pick and roll, but Kobe did such a great job of quickly getting away from the screen Smith had too much ground to make up and Kobe was able to shake Marcus and hit a big jumper.  I do not expect Marcus to stop Kobe in that situation, but I do wish he would have put forth the same effort during the play that he could have made a difference. 

 - Don’t you just wish you could watch film with the Nuggets sometime with the remote in one hand and a pointer in the other?  I would probably get jumped afterwards by a lynch mob of posse members and beaten to a pulp, but if I get my message though it might be worth it.  I have enough life insurance to pay off the house.   

 - Lamar Odom had been struggling big time and it was only a matter of time before he had a good game.  He played very well scoring all 17 of his points, in the first two and a half quarters. 

 - I absolutely hate hearing cheers over the television when the Lakers score during games in Denver.  It grates on me like a braggart foisting his silly pathetic stories on a fair maiden. 

 - The Nuggets keep playing zone here and there and it makes me nuts.  They play sloppy defense when they are in a zone and the do not rebound well at all.  They have the potential to build the foundation of being a very good man to man defensive team.  After all, Melo is in a quasi-serious relationship with Defense for the first time in his career.   

 - I think it is safe to say that George Karl has lost faith in Bobby Jones and Kuba Diawara, who is back to being the Nuggets leading three point shooter after the 0-5 night J.R. Smith threw up.   

 - I thought it was interesting watching Iverson heading towards the bench after the third quarter, being met on the court by Karl and then emphatically telling him that he did not need a rest and would prefer not to be taken out of the game.  They guy had 49 points through three quarters in a close game.  You might as well be asking a pitcher in the middle of a no hitter if he wanted to let someone else take care of the last three outs or asking Drew Carey to date someone who does not take their clothes off for a living. 

 - I just hit my funny bone so I am going to wrap things up. 

Again, for some thoughts from the Lakers’ perspective on tonight’s game and to see what a high quality blog actually looks like as opposed to this slop check out Forum Blue and Gold.

Game 18: Denver Nuggets 115 – Miami Heat 89

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Due to some extenuating circumstances, nothing bad I assure you, I was not able to watch much of the game last night.  I missed a lot of it live and only saw a little bit here and there of the replay.  So from what I saw here is an abbreviated report. 

Only Observations From Game 18:

 - The Nuggets rolled another poor team at home which once again makes it difficult to draw conclusions as to how they are improving.  That being said, they did really move very well without the ball on offense and they took advantage of that by making quick aggressive passes.  I do not like just reciting stats from the box score, but I will have to rely on some of that as I did not see all of the game.  The combination of pushing the pace, the Nuggets were +16 in fast break points, and the movement and passing mentioned above gave them an advantage of +24 in points in the paint.  They also topped 30 assists against only 12 turnovers.  Had Von Wafer not committed three turnovers in his five minutes on the court, their turnover total would have been even more impressive.   

I have no idea why they cannot play with that kind of focus and purpose on offense every game.  I realize teams can get in a funk here and there, but it should never happen for a prolonged period of time.  The Nuggets had gone for four or five games in a row without playing smart offense and that is inexcusable.   

There has been, and still is, a great deal of talk about how difficult it should be for teams to guard Melo and Iverson.  When they are focusing on isolations and dribbling in place long enough to make the ball lopsided they allow almost any defense to set up and be prepared to stop them, but when the entire team is passing the ball quickly the defense gets out of position and it is at that point when Carmelo and AI become almost unstoppable. 

 - Miami is really bad.  Shaq is at the end of his rope.  He may hang around and finish out his contract, but I cannot imagine how much of a liability he will be in the next two or three seasons.  I also do not think Wade is completely healed form his offseason surgeries.  I believe I heard them say that he has not dunked since he returned nine or ten games ago.  For a player that relies so much on his explosive athleticism that has to be concerning for the Heat.  Of course, I wish I had dunked nine or ten games ago.  I have to settle for lowering the basket at my in-laws house in order to accomplish that feat. 

The Heat are stuck in a position financially and talent wise that is somewhat comparable to the Knicks.  They are paying Shaq so much that they cannot afford to bring in any other players and they have no assets that anyone would want in a trade.  It would make sense to rebuild, but because of the presence of Shaq they have to play every season to try to make the playoffs.  They cannot allow themselves to rest Wade and play for the future.  Maybe they can buy Shaq out and go for a good draft pick, but financially they will still be a quagmire of poor contracts and poor players.  Will Wade want to wait around for a rebuilding project?  He signed an abbreviated extension that will allow him to become a free agent at the end of the 2009-2010 season.  Don’t think he will not leave after that deal is up. 

For all the debate over which star has the worst supporting cast in the NBA give me Wade over Kobe or LeBron by a mile for having to play with that pathetic bunch.  Because of that, I can see him leaving town at the earliest opportunity. 

 - But, who cares about the Heat?  Let’s get back to the Nuggets.  This is Born a Nuggets Fan, not Born a Heat Fan.  Obviously Kenyon Martin was great last night.  I had two concerns when they traded for him.  First of all, why do a sign and trade giving him an even higher salary and sacrificing three first round picks when it was pretty obvious that the Nets were not going to match, but that is all water from the river Kiki was sent up the river on under the bridge.  More importantly I was worried about his ability to guard the Duncans and Garnetts of the world.  Now that he has played for the Nuggets for a few seasons, and unfortunately not played for a couple, he proved that he does a decent job of defending in the post against almost any player.   

When the Nuggets are running, and he is healthy, Martin is as valuable of a player as the Nuggets anticipated him to be when they traded for him.  The problem comes in when they start playing a half court style game where he becomes just an average player.  He takes too many jumpers and has no offensive move he can rely on in the post, but we knew those things when they signed him.  In order for the Nuggets to get the most out of him, and really out of their entire roster, they must run every game. 

From a health perspective Kenyon is looking better and better every game.  He is definitely getting his explosiveness back as he threw down a handful of monster dunks last night.  We will have to enjoy it while it lasts because the likelihood of him suffering another injury is about equal to the likelihood of people being upset with politicians or kids making fun of portly people. 

 - I mentioned how I thought it was very sad that the Nuggets labeled November as a positive month because they won ten games.  Of course the Nuggets have a handful of excuses as to why they struggled in some winnable games.  One of those excuses was injuries.  You all know how I feel about that.  This roster has plenty of depth to handle a couple of players missing games here and there (especially when one of them is Chucky Atkins).  The second excuse I have heard leak out is the fact that they played five back to back games during November.   

How about we examine that for a minute?  They went 2-3 in the five second halves of back to back games.  Remove those five games and they were still only 8-4, which is good, but not great.  They have 14 more back to back sets this season.  Do we have to write off more than half of those as losses?   

I looked back at last season’s schedules for several teams to see how they did on back to backs.  Believe it or not Nuggets players, it is possible to win after playing the night before. The five teams that finished ahead of the Nuggets last season and their records on the second night of back to backs look like this:

Dallas Mavericks 14-1
Phoenix Suns 14-7
San Antonio Spurs 12-4
Houston Rockets 9-9
Utah Jazz 9-9

And then we have the Denver Nuggets who came in with a record in the second half of back to backs last season at 8-12.  As pointed out earlier, they have started this year at 2-3.  If you are good at math, you may notice that 8-12 and 2-3 are equal ratios.  They both equate to a .400 winning percentage.  If the Nuggets carry on the type of play they have exhibited on the second half of back to backs last year and the first month this year, they will end up with a record somewhere around 7-12 or 8-11.  Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and take the better record of 8-11.  Combined with their current seven losses that equals 18 losses that they have or will have.  Thus in order to win 55 games they can only afford to lose nine more games where they enjoy at least one day of rest before tip off.  They have 50 such games left therefore they will have to have a record of 41-9 to reach 55 wins this season.  If we further extrapolate their 8-4 record in those such games they will end up 33-17 or thereabouts.   

Add all of that up and they have a final record of 50-32.  That would give them the fourth 50 win season since joining the NBA and the first since 1987-1988.  Not bad, but definitely not good enough to get home court advantage or a promising matchup in the playoffs.  

Before we start getting excited about a 50 win season, remember that this was what I thought was perhaps the easiest month on their schedule.  To me that means that when things get tougher, it will be reflected in their record and there is no guarantee that they can continue on even at the somewhat disappointing pace they have set. 

What can be done?  It all comes back to the mental crutch the Nuggets allow themselves to utilize.  They give themselves the option of losing certain games before they even play because of injuries.  Now we have found out that they give themselves the option to lose on the tail end of back to backs because those games are more difficult.  The number of games that they allow themselves to lose is growing and growing.  What next?  They do not like the pressure of nationally televised games?  Dancing With The Stars is over so they have too much pent up frustration to focus on the game? 

The Nuggets can still have a fine season, but they will only accomplish as much as their little minds will allow them to.

Game 4: Denver Nuggets 112 – New York Knicks 119

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I was ready to denounce the Nuggets’ lack of heart in a brief and biting post following the loss to the Knicks, but I have decided to rewatch the fourth quarter before handing out such harsh criticism.   

Here are the facts of the game.  The Nuggets were outscored by 17 points in the fourth quarter.  They were outrebounded by nine.  The Knicks missed 43 shots and ended up with 17 offensive rebounds.  That is a 38% rate. The Knicks shot 13 of 24 in the fourth quarter which is good not great.  They also missed six free throws.  Of those 17 shots where there was a chance for a rebound the Knicks corralled 10 of those rebounds.  Ten out of 17! 

Most of that time Camby and Nene were on the floor together until Nene fouled out with just over two minutes left.  As noted after game three, Nene is looking to be in better shape than he was just a week ago, but he was still worn out by the end of the game.  With no Kenyon Martin my number one question of the game is where was Steven Hunter?  He would have been fresh and would have helped out on the glass in the pivotal fourth quarter.   

After watching the replay, I am a little less frustrated, but maybe it is because I knew what was going to happen.  It was a one point game with under two minutes left.  However, this was a very disappointing result.   

You can talk all you want about how it is impossible to draw conclusions after three or four games, but when you have a trend over the past three seasons and you see the beginning of that trend in the fourth season, that is a good sign that the trend will continue. 

The Nuggets talk of winning 60 or even 55 games is starting to look hollow to me.  Can this team still win 50 games?  Sure.  Can they get home court advantage in the playoffs?  I will answer that question with another question.  How many wins will it take to finish in front of the Spurs, Suns, Mavs or Rockets?  Can they reach that total by losing games at home to New Orleans and against the Knicks?  If the Nuggets do not finish ahead of at least one of those teams, and add Utah to that mix as well, they are going on the road for the first round once again. 

Games like tonight are nearly must wins for the Nuggets to reach their stated goals. 

Other Observations from Game 4:

• Iverson finally had a breakout game.  He shot 13-22 and was the lone bright spot for the Nuggets offensively.   
• Melo was hounded by Renaldo Balkman and faced numerous double teams.  He had his second straight poor shooting game misfiring on 13 of his 20 shots.    
• Is Renaldo Balkman somehow related to the “Shoe Bomber” Richard Reid? 
• The Nuggets are not running.  AI is partly to blame as he jogs the ball up most of the time.  He played that way for over ten years in Philly so it is very difficult for him to transition to a fast paced transition offense.   
• The three point shooting watch continues.  The Nuggets were a respectable 6-16.  J.R. Smith hit a couple before missing two very difficult attempts towards the end of the game.  Melo only took one and missed.  AI only took two and made one.  Kleiza was 2-6 but two of his misses were right online, just a tad too long, which is good.  Najera banked his only try in, but utilized a shot fake from the perimeter to get past his man.     

The Nuggets head into Boston tomorrow and Boston has looked very good to start the season.  The Nuggets will have their work cut out for them, but if they can win tomorrow night in Boston, tonight’s game will not sting so badly.  But if they do go on to lose in Boston, the games in Washington, who will be desperate for a win, and Indy, who has been very impressive, will be crucial. Next Game:  Wednesday @ Boston Celtics – Anyone who discounts this team as a contender because of a lack of depth has not watched them play

Contenders? That is a First for Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I have been a die hard Nuggets fan since the mid 1980s (maybe not quite from the time I was out of the womb) and during that time the Nuggets have never been trumpeted as potential world champs heading into the season.  There have been a few nice teams over the years, and a lot of poor ones, but at no time have the Nuggets been considered anything more than a potential playoff team.   

That is until now. 

I have already gone on record to say that this team will have to show me that they are going to produce at an exceptional level before I believe they actually will.  However, they do have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.  That is a fact.  In the Carmelo Era they have not been able to run with the Suns nor have they been able to plod it out against the Spurs or Mavs.  This year may be different and here is why: 

Healthy Bigs – The Nuggets have not had both Kenyon Martin and Nene available at the same time for the past two seasons.  Both can run the floor, both can guard Tim Duncan, both can pass and both can play at the same time.  Obviously, there is no guarantee that these two will stay healthy and both of them will have their minutes monitored to start the season.  As long they can stay healthy they will make for a strong and versatile front court along with Marcus Camby who can also run the floor and pass very well. 

Melo Still Surging – Carmelo Anthony made another leap forward in his development as a player the first part of last season.  That was derailed by the suspension for the brawl with the pathetic Knicks.  Melo has become more and more efficient as a scorer and he continues to develop as evidenced by his performance in the Tournament of the Americas.   

He is a very complete offensive player, but he has three weaknesses.  He settles for too many midrange jumpers.  He can make them though and if he can make them at the rate he did in Las Vegas this summer, this may not be a weakness after all.  Second, he gets his shot blocked frequently in the paint.  Melo is an explosive leaper when he is on the move move, but when it comes to launching himself at the rim after being flat footed in the paint, he is not so dynamic.  Lastly, he insists on shooting threes.  Melo cranked them up at a rate of 2.3 three point attempts a game last season.  That is ridiculous considering he is barely more than a 25% shooter from there.  Perhaps there is a silver lining to this cloud as well.  Over the last month of the season and against the Spurs in the playoffs Melo starting hitting his threes.  He shot 21-46 from behind the arc.  Do the math and that is a rate of 46%.  Melo is not going to become Jason Kapono, but if he can hit threes at a 35% rate, or better, he can help answer some of the constant concerns that follow the Nuggets regarding outside shooting.  He has the form to be a good shooter so this is not an unlikely scenario. 

There is no reason not to believe Melo will not make another stride ahead in his development this season which is great news for the Nuggets. 

Road Warriors – The Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins last season and finished with better than a .500 record at 22-19.  This is a team of veterans and they should be tough to rattle on the road.  There is no reason not to expect this group to build on last season’s success. 

Roll out the Role Player – Another area the Nuggets have fallen short the past few seasons of the Melo Era is they have not had that one role player who is capable of driving the stake in Dracula’s heart.  The Spurs have Horry who is always ready to make a big block or hit the big shot.  The Nuggets need a player like that, but is just such a performer on this roster?  The most likely player to grow into that role is Linas Kleiza.  He is developing a solid three point shot and has a knack for being at the right place ar the right time.  A secondary candidate may be Bobby Jones who has been running some with the first team in practices and has shown a quality three point stroke in the preseason.   

No Cruising – The Nuggets have not put a great deal of emphasis on the regular season.  They do want to win their division, but that is no longer a guarantee of having a playoff series with home court advantage against a lesser team.  They realize that a big key to getting out of the first round is avoiding the Spurs.  In order to do that they know they cannot cruise through stretches in the schedule.  Teams that earn home court advantage and the right to play the Lakers and Grizzlies of the world in the first round do not take games off.  I think the Nuggets recognize this and will put a new sense of urgency into the regular season. 

What does it all mean though?  Again, I have heard all the right things coming from Nuggets’ players the past two or three seasons in training camp, but when the season starts expectations are rarely met.  If the Nuggets have truly learned from the past few seasons and they are ready to validate that potential NBA champion label that some have affixed on them, we should know right off the bat.   

This team has been plagued by slow starts the past three seasons.  I believe we will know if the Nuggets are for real by the end of November.  This team has a legitimate shot to start off in the 13-4 or even 14-3 range.  They do not play San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas or Utah and only play the Rockets once during that stretch.  However, if we are looking at another 10-7 start, I am afraid that it will be more of the same for Nuggets fans in 2007-2008.    

That would be very disappointing for the first season in my life where the Nuggets are considered to be championship contenders.