Game 11: Denver Nuggets 112 – Chicago Bulls 91

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Box Score 

What else can we say about the Nuggets at this point?  Tonight was another example of smart offense, tough defense and near nonstop effort.  They got up early on the Bulls, which is easy as they start two offensively inept players and three other players who are in an extreme slump, and kept the pedal down all night. 

One big change I see in the Nuggets this year is a new hyper-competitiveness.  Right now they have a killer instinct that I have never seen from them before.  One example of that was Camby getting called for a travel late in the third quarter with a 25 point lead and getting really upset like I-just-caught-my-wife-in-bed-with-two-other-dudes upset.  These guys want to destroy everyone right now and I love it. 

Like I said, what else can we say about the Nuggets at this point in the season?  They are blowing out teams that they should be blowing out.  That may seem a bit uninteresting, as much of my material does, but do not discount that as there are many teams who struggle at winning the games that they should win easily in the NBA.  One team that struggled mightily with that was your 2006-2007 Denver Nuggets. 

We really will not find out much more about them until they play at Houston on Saturday.  That is unless they lose on the road against the Clippers or at home against the Timberwolves before that. 

Other Observations From Game 11: 

 - Nocioni is a scrapper and fighter on defense.  One of the things I was worried about was him getting away with the little physical hits and getting in the Nuggets’ (i.e. Melo’s) head(s).  Well, Melo made him look absolutely silly.  Nocioni was never close enough to Melo to get any cheap shots in on him.  Melo was able to use his superior quickness to get plenty of space on Nocioni whether it was in the paint on a sweet spin move or on the perimeter with the step back jumper.   

Nocioni is going to be praying that Argentina plays zone next year in the Olympics against Team USA because he wants no part of Melo after tonight. 

Along the same lines, Melo has not had any big blowups as he has had in the past where he loses his head or starts playing selfish to prove a point.  No throwing the headband or flipping out on refs.  It is almost as if he is growing up.   

 - Melo had a migraine in the morning, and it may have reflected a little bit in his shooting.  He was 0-3 on three pointers and missed a handful of 18 footers.  He did break out of his one game free throw slump in a big way.  He shot 10-13 which was not great, but was much better than the 0-4 he put up against New York.   

 - Martin was tremendous in the first quarter.  He has not only done a tremendous job on defense, but he is just as good on offense.  His shot selection has been as good as I have seen since he came to Denver.  He has eliminated the 20 foot jumper from his repertoire (he did take an 18 footer in the third quarter, but I can excuse that from time to time) and is taking the ball to the basket for his nice little push shot.    

 - There were three different stages of the game where the Nuggets relaxed and the Bulls were able to cut into their lead, at the beginning of the second quarter the Bulls went on a 7-0 run, when the starters came back in midway through the second quarter when they saw a 49-32 lead get knocked down to ten and a couple of minutes at the beginning of the second half when the had a 5-0 run. 

In the past the Nuggets would have let those sequences snowball into a prolonged run.  At this point in the season they are regaining their focus and throwing up a run of their own to not only regain their advantage, but increase it.   

In the past three games neither the Blazers, the Knicks nor the Bulls have been able to cut a big Nuggets second quarter down below ten.  You read that correctly, in the previous three games once the Nuggets have been up by at least ten in the second quarter they have maintained that lead throughout the game.   

 - Even when the Nuggets were temporarily losing focus on defense their offense was in high gear all night.  Melo has been a matchup nightmare for his individual defender for a couple of seasons, but now that he is more dedicated to hit the open man when he drives and that has made him other-worldly.  When he is passing the way he is it will require an entire team effort to keep the Nuggets from having a big offensive night. 

 - Has Nocioni shut up yet?  Dear Lord, the guy complains more than a prissy Valley Girl doing manual labor. 

 - Tyrus Thomas was a complete punk for a short stretch in the third quarter.  He glared at Melo for tipping the ball out of his hands after a whistle.  Then he tried to be a tough guy fighting through a screen the next time down the court and was called for a foul.  After that he threw a mini elbow at Kenyon after Martin was called for a pushing into him on a screen.  He had a really nice game against Detroit this season.  If he does not get his head on straight, that will end up being his career game.   

 - I think Hinrich just missed another jumper.  And he is planning on taking another on the next possession.  Gordon was much worse than Kirk so it may have been better using him, but in the third quarter after the Bulls made their last mini-run he missed jumpers on three or four possessions in a short sequence to kill any chance they had of getting any closer.

 - I really should say something about Marcus Camby seeing how he had another 20 rebound game.  He had a sequence of blocks in the second quarter that left Scott Skiles on the floor yelling at the refs because he could not believe that anyone could do such a thing.  Well, believe it Coach Skiles and enjoy the auto deduction from your next check for the fine you will get after picking up that technical.  As great as Camby has been, it is almost routine to see him grab rebound after rebound.  He is playing at a high level and deserves all the accolades that he is receiving from Nugget fans.

 - I agree completely with what Kenny Smith said about the Bulls on Inside the NBA last week.  They are a jump shooting team that can never get any open jumpers.  Question:  How many 20 footers do those guys take with a hand in their face?  Answer:  More than the average person shoots in their life. 

 - I kind of have a sore throat right now, but I think I will be alright. 

 - I have not really given Iverson, the reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, much attention in the past couple of write ups, but he had 20 points in the first half and was playing superlative offensive basketball.  He is taking (mostly) good shots and getting teammates involved.  He let Hinrich get loose a couple of times in the first half on defense, but was a tremendous pest apart from that.   

The very first possession of the game the Iverson and Diawara were playing such great denial defense that Ben Wallace could not pass the ball off to anyone and had to take an awkward driving shot.  How often do you see that in the NBA? 

Believe it or not, you see it now from the Denver Nuggets.

You can find a perspective from the Bulls point of view at Blog-a-Bull.

Let Them Play!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.