Hey KG, Have Fun Losing the 2008 NBA Finals!

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There are numerous reports that Kevin Garnett has been traded to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and a draft pick or two.

This is a trade that will work for both teams.  From Boston’s point of view, making the trade now instead of during the draft allowed them to send their #5 pick to Seattle instead of Minnesota which allowed them to add Ray Allen and KG.  I doubt that Danny Ainge planned it that way, but the Allen deal was only going to make them competitive, not put them over the top.  They still had a mismatched team of prospects and a couple of vets in the win now portion of their careers.  Now a triumvirate of KG, Paul Pierce and Allen will make them instant contenders for the next two or three seasons.  Their bench will be pretty thin, but with players like Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Leon Powe, Allen Ray and a healthy Tony Allen it should be deep enough to get them by.

Minnesota had to make a deal.  There is not a trade in the world they could have pulled off leaving their fans saying, “Wow, I am so glad we traded KG, we got more than he was worth.  Great job Kevin!”  It would do no good to watch KG kill himself to end up 9th or 10th in the west again. They now have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson and Craig Smith.  Telfair is not a completely lost player.  In an up tempo system I think he can do quite well.  Believe it or not, the future in Minnesota looks brighter today than it did yesterday.  The key will be to get another GM in there to handle the rebuilding.  If they leave McHale in there to screw the team over again fans will burn down the Target Center or whatever it is called now.

From the Nuggets’ perspective for this season there is one less dog in the fight for the playoffs.  The division just got a little easier and they should be able to take advantage of Portland, Seattle and Minnesota all rebuilding at the same time, to get a few more ticks in the win column.  They were a combined 8-4 against those three teams last season, but hopefully this season can make it 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

From a league perspective the seepage of talent from West to East has picked up steam in the last month.  The East has added KG, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson while the West has added Darko Milicic and Grant Hill.  A couple more offseasons like this one and the East will be much more competitive as a whole.

From a skeptical perspective I wonder if David Stern woke up this morning and saw the the media was still all over the Donaghy scandal and he placed a call to Danny and Kevin “recommending” they make a deal to put a new headline on the NBA home pages of the big Internet sites.  Add in the fact that baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline is tomorrow and it would be another example of Stern doing something to steal the spotlight from another sport.

In closing let me say this.  It has been great to watch KG battle over the years.  You always knew what you were getting into when Minnesota came to town.  He always made a game worth the price of admission.  Kevin, good luck and may the Celtics make it all the way to the 2008 NBA Finals where they can have the honor of losing to our Denver Nuggets.

Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

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 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Rumors and Projections That Make no Sense

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First the KG trade rumors.  It is obvious that the Wolves are working to trade KG before the draft in order to land some picks.  That makes sense.  His value will drop after the draft and bottom out at the trade deadline.  They need to make a deal now.

What makes no sense, if the Stoudemire to Atlanta or Charlotte rumors are true (and that is a big if), and Phoenix is willing to trade Amare, why on earth would Minnesota not take him?  I know cap space and draft picks offer the siren song of the unknown and create excitement, but Amare is an absolute stud who can score at will.  He was rusty for the first month or so of last season and went on a tear after that.  I realize that Minnesota will not have cap space in the future, but if they just nab Amare, they get a top flight player for KG.  What good will cap space do them?  What major free agent will ever want to sign there knowing that they have failed to build around their star player for all of these years?  Minnesota will not get anything better than Amare when they finally trade KG.  They should just do a deal straight up with Phoenix right now.

Why would Milwaukee be interested in Mike Conley?  They have a point guard that they can easily keep as long as they pony up the cash.  Their team will not get better if they draft a PG just to let the one they have go.  Sure they will probably have to pay a little more than Mo Williams is worth to keep him, but the whole goal is to build a team, not replace one player with another.  If they can waive goodbye to Williams and then sign a top free agent with what they save then fine, but who do they think they can sign that will help?  It is doubtful that Conley will even be available to them at #6, but it still bugs me that they were ever considering Conley.

If Joakim Noah is such a great team guy, why is he telling Milwaukee and Minnesota not to draft him?  If he was such a team oriented player, why not go with whoever drafts you and work hard to make that team better?  Steve Francis pulls this with Vancouver and he is an ungrateful jerk.  Noah does it and he is still a media darling.  What’s the difference?

Why doesn’t David Stern just appoint someone to run the Hawks until this ownership issue is resolved?  Having a team that is both such an important position in the draft and being ripe to help implement a major trade mired in conflict is screwing everything up.  If they could have landed Stoudemire, but one owner would not allow it out of spite for the other owners someone should have stepped in and forced things through.  How good would the Hawks be with Amare?  Shelden Williams does not look so bad at the four with Amare on one side and Josh Smith on the other.  Throw in Joe Johnson and that deep bench and you have a very dangerous team.  Now on the other hand, add in Al Horford or Yi Jianlian and Acie Law and what do you have?  Another lottery appearance, that’s what.

What is keeping Boston and Indiana from making deals?  Boston needs to show some progress and Indiana needs to start over.  They are both active in trade discussions, but like I said earlier, player values spike around the draft, unless they have an expiring contract, then their value spikes at the trade deadline.  Neither team is working with a large expiring contract so get something done already.  What does Boston do that will improve them at #5?  Nothing.  Sure they can land another solid prospect, but that is it.  Maybe if they take Jeff Green or Corey Brewer they have a player who will help from day one, but will they be in the playoffs this season?  Next season?  Five years from now?  No one knows.  This team is going nowhere without a trade.  Indiana needs to get rid of Jermaine O’Neal.  It sounds like they are trying, but they need to do something sooner rather than later.

I am hoping that we get some major trades going tonight, but I would not count on it.  At least there is enough suspense surrounding where all the top players will end up since it really is a crap shoot from pick three through 12 or so. 

Let Them Play!

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There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.