Can We Draw Conclusions From Five Games?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The debate has begun.  Can we draw any conclusions from the Nuggets’ first five games?   

Some Nuggets fans are making excuses for this team.  There are still 77 games left.  If this stretch happened in the middle of the season no one would think twice about it.  The Mavericks started out 0-4 last year and ended up with the best record in the NBA.  They do not have Chucky Atkins, Anthony Carter or Mike Wilks.  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? 

These all make sense if we are simply looking at what has happened the first two weeks of this season   

I am sorry, but I have seen this act before.  This team has said all the right things, but they still have not bought into the fact that games in November mean as much as games in April.  As R.Q. posted on the Denver Post game discussion from the blowout in Boston, and as I have written here, there is a pattern here. 

Before 2004-2005 the Nuggets talked about winning over 50 games and winning their division.  Their record after five games was 1-4 and at the end of November they were 8-6.  They did not win their division nor did they win over 50 games. 

Before 2005-2006 the Nuggets talked about winning over 50 games and winning their division.  Their record after five games was 2-3 and at the end of November they were 8-8.  They did win their division (albeit with only 44 wins), but they did not win 50 games. 

Before 2006-2007 the Nuggets talked of winning over 50 games and winning their division.  Their record after five games was 2-3 and at the end of November they were 8-5.  They did not win over 50 games nor did they win their division. 

Before 2007-2008 the Nuggets talked of winning 55-60 games, winning their division and having home court advantage in the playoffs.  Their record after five games is 2-3.  If they end up 9-8 or 10-7 at the end of November during arguably the easiest month of their schedule where they only play one game against the top five teams in the West, they are going to have a very tough hill to climb to keep from being first round playoff fodder again. 

I wrote that they would have to prove to me that this year would be different for me to believe that they would reach their goals.  So far the only thing that has been proven is that it is likely that this team will underachieve and fall short of its goals yet again. 

The few who are still clinging to belief that this team will win the division, enjoy home court advantage in the first round and pass through to at least the second round are claiming that those of us who are down on the Nuggets are jumping off the bandwagon and that they will remember when we try to jump back on. 

For the record, I am not jumping off of anything, especially something that is moving (even if it is a slow moving wagon).  I will be on my couch ignoring my wife and children for every game the rest of the season.  I even wore my Nuggets hat to Wal-Mart tonight.  Would someone jumping off the bandwagon wear Nuggets paraphernalia in public?  

Can the Nuggets still reach their stated goals for the season?  Sure they can.  I just believe that the chances of that happening are only slightly higher than the chances that Will Ferrell will stop parading around on screen half naked.  If you are expecting another winning streak to wrap up the season keep in mind that during the month of March they play the top five teams from the West seven times and they have a five game east coast road trip thrown in to boot. 

In order for the Nuggets to achieve their goals they must dedicate themselves to playing four quarters of defense, moving the ball on offense, running on every possible possession and staying out of trouble.  That dedication must start tonight in Washington. 

There are indeed 77 gams left to play.  I cannot wait to see what the Nuggets to with them.