Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll
I was primed to watch the first quarter and contrast the way the Celtics pass the ball and the way the Nuggets pass the ball, but my plans were thwarted by an act of God. The power went out for about an hour. This caused me to miss the first quarter of the replay. I was able to watch the second quarter and it proved my point just fine.
Here is what I found out.
Brace yourself now…
The Nuggets have no offense.
For the purposes of this study I did not count the inbounds pass or outlet pass as they are typically passes that must be made. During the second quarter the Nuggets had 27 possessions that would not be characterized as fast break possessions and thus would lend themselves to some form of half court execution.
Of those 27 possessions there were eight where there were zero passes. There were five possessions where there was one pass. There were eight more possessions that featured two passes. There were another five possessions with three passes. Then there was one possession where the Nuggets actually passed the ball four times, but there was a reason for that.
Look at those numbers.
Nearly half, 13 out of 27, of their half court possessions consisted of either no passes or one pass! They had one possession where there were more than three passes! On that possession the Celtics extended some pressure and the first two guys to handle the ball were Diawara and Najera. They had to pass it resulting in two of the four passes.
Several of the possessions where they had two or three passes it took ten to 15 seconds before the second or third pass was made. Overall for the quarter the Nuggets averaged 1.48 passes per possession.
Think about that.
How difficult is it to defend knowing that the offense is only going to make one or two passes?
I had a fancy little table all ready to paste in here, but apparently I can only insert images if they have a URL. I could do the HTML thing and program in a table, but it is far to late for that. Just picture a little talbe here that shows the Nuggets do not pass and that is bad.
I really wanted to observe the first quarter for Boston. They shared the ball beautifully and did a great job of reversing the ball and moving without the ball. I had to settle for watching the second quarter because of the massive Rocky Mountain power failure that robbed me of an hour of productivity. I do have the Tivo set to record the re-replay tomorrow.
Anyway, the Celtics were only a little better than the Nuggets in the second quarter, but part of the reason was that they were red hot. They had 18 half court possessions which were not interrupted prematurely by a foul. They had four possessions where there were at least four passes. Guess what? They scored on all four of those possessions including a seven pass possession to open the quarter.
Ppenetration is a very effective weapon in basketball, but the pass is even better and the Celtics are proving that. When a player drives, one or perhaps two defenders have to adjust, but when the ball is passed, every defensive player has to adjust their positioning. When an offense mixes passing with motion a great deal of pressure is placed on the defense.
Hopefully, at some point the Nuggets will figure that out.
As far as the actual game, this was as embarrassing a loss as I can remember for the Nuggets. The road trip is off to a horrible start as is their season. For a team that is expected to be a contender in the West and almost a sure thing to reach the finals in the hypothetical world that placed them in the East the first five games of the season have been a disaster.
However, all is not lost. The Nuggets have a very good chance to win the last two games of the trip. They play at Indianapolis Pacers, who were easily handled at home by the Clippers tonight, and the Washington Wizards who are struggling to start the season. Gilbert Arenas is still dealing with his knee that underwent surgery at the end of last season and has yet to figure out how to turn on the Hibachi.
Unfortunately, it matters very little who they play if they are going to constantly hang onto the ball and pound it into the hardwood when they are on offense. This sticky fingers disease can be deadly.
Here is hoping the Nuggets can find a cure.
November 8, 2007 at 1:11 pm |
A very insightful viewpoint of last night’s game. I don’t have cable but I listened to the first half on the internet. A mark of a poor team is inconsistency. The Nuggets during their lean years were mired in poor efforts and inconsistent play. Fast forward 5 years to the team that features Carmelo (2nd leading scorer last season), Allen Iverson (The Answer, 3rd highest PPG in NBA history), and Marcus Camby (DPOY 06-07), and you still deal with the same problems that plagued them when they were an annual lottery team.
One thing to take into consideration with the lack of passing was the lack of a true point guard. AI does well when he’s at the point, but he’s not a true point guard. At one point in the second period while AI was on the bench (and all three point guards on our team injured), they had Carmelo and JR Smith running the ball up the court. These are shoot first pass second type of players. Not a good combination.
This makes me think of the game against Toronto last year right after they lost in OT to Detroit.
Lastly, how on earth does a team shoot over 70% in one half? Insane.
November 8, 2007 at 1:54 pm |
You are right JM, they are extremely inconsistent. How often after the game dose Karl say something along the lines of, “I thought we played really good defense in the third quarter.” It takes more than playing quality basketball in spurts to beat good teams.
I think you are also correct in comparing this game to the Toronto game last season. Both times the opponent was red hot and blew the Nuggets away immediately and both were after disappointing losses.
Thanks for reading and keep leaving your comments!
November 8, 2007 at 5:09 pm |
I like the idea of this breakdown…but not sure how applicible it is. I would like to see a larger sample of Nuggs games, and of other teams in order to put any real significance in these findings. Is it really that out of the ordinary to not pass more than once? Do teams tend to have a higher shooting %age that do this? This also might not be the best game to test…after being down 40 I would guess most teams would give up focus. Its got potential though.
I do recall a big focus last year in training camp to share the ball. I have not heard that this year. I suspect that was mostly for Melo’s benefit.
A lack of a point guard hurts. Steve Blake…while not the greatest shooter or athlete was definitly a calming influence to our offense. I can’t put my finger on why…but it seems with AI running the show our offense really boggs down.
November 8, 2007 at 5:45 pm |
Hi Disco, I taped the game so I could watch it from the start to get a better idea of how the first quarter went instead of starting when the Nuggets were already down 18. Even if I include the first quarter, it is definitely a small sample size. I will probably not log passes to this extent again, but it is something I will keep my eye on.
You are correct that it is not necessarily bad to shoot after only one pass, but the question is did that one pass get you a better shot? The Celtics were either shooting layups or open threes when they only threw one pass. The Nuggets were taking contested 20 footers after one pass. That is the primary difference.
Speaking of Blake, I have previously lamented is departure.
November 8, 2007 at 6:41 pm |
Well, I think its a bit of a stretch to conclude “the nuggets have no offense” based on a poor sample size, and really no data to compare your findings too. May be more fair to say ‘on this night…the nuggets didn’t move the ball well in a half court set…’. Which is no surprise…they have struggled badly with that for years. I have seen some positive things this year to make me believe they are working on it. Still…its hard to say much when they don’t have their full team.
I totally agree with you about Blake/Atkins. Our offense, to me…was much more effecient with him in the game last year, and he wasn’t a horrible defender. Atkins…I hope GK has a plan for him…if not its a bad signing. No D- and now that we see he is injury prone. Hollinger agrees with you as well in his ‘biggest busts’ story today.
Anyway, I expect a big win in Washington tomorrow. Arenus just had he knee drained again…and that team overall looks pretty bad. Not to mention the fact our Nuggs just got embarrassed and have pride to play for.
November 9, 2007 at 3:00 am |
[...] Following up on my Sticky Fingers article I compiled the passing numbers in the first quarter of the game to complete my analysis of [...]