Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll
I have been a die hard Nuggets fan since the mid 1980s (maybe not quite from the time I was out of the womb) and during that time the Nuggets have never been trumpeted as potential world champs heading into the season. There have been a few nice teams over the years, and a lot of poor ones, but at no time have the Nuggets been considered anything more than a potential playoff team.
That is until now.
I have already gone on record to say that this team will have to show me that they are going to produce at an exceptional level before I believe they actually will. However, they do have the talent to compete with anyone in the league. That is a fact. In the Carmelo Era they have not been able to run with the Suns nor have they been able to plod it out against the Spurs or Mavs. This year may be different and here is why:
Healthy Bigs – The Nuggets have not had both Kenyon Martin and Nene available at the same time for the past two seasons. Both can run the floor, both can guard Tim Duncan, both can pass and both can play at the same time. Obviously, there is no guarantee that these two will stay healthy and both of them will have their minutes monitored to start the season. As long they can stay healthy they will make for a strong and versatile front court along with Marcus Camby who can also run the floor and pass very well.
Melo Still Surging – Carmelo Anthony made another leap forward in his development as a player the first part of last season. That was derailed by the suspension for the brawl with the pathetic Knicks. Melo has become more and more efficient as a scorer and he continues to develop as evidenced by his performance in the Tournament of the Americas.
He is a very complete offensive player, but he has three weaknesses. He settles for too many midrange jumpers. He can make them though and if he can make them at the rate he did in Las Vegas this summer, this may not be a weakness after all. Second, he gets his shot blocked frequently in the paint. Melo is an explosive leaper when he is on the move move, but when it comes to launching himself at the rim after being flat footed in the paint, he is not so dynamic. Lastly, he insists on shooting threes. Melo cranked them up at a rate of 2.3 three point attempts a game last season. That is ridiculous considering he is barely more than a 25% shooter from there. Perhaps there is a silver lining to this cloud as well. Over the last month of the season and against the Spurs in the playoffs Melo starting hitting his threes. He shot 21-46 from behind the arc. Do the math and that is a rate of 46%. Melo is not going to become Jason Kapono, but if he can hit threes at a 35% rate, or better, he can help answer some of the constant concerns that follow the Nuggets regarding outside shooting. He has the form to be a good shooter so this is not an unlikely scenario.
There is no reason not to believe Melo will not make another stride ahead in his development this season which is great news for the Nuggets.
Road Warriors – The Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins last season and finished with better than a .500 record at 22-19. This is a team of veterans and they should be tough to rattle on the road. There is no reason not to expect this group to build on last season’s success.
Roll out the Role Player – Another area the Nuggets have fallen short the past few seasons of the Melo Era is they have not had that one role player who is capable of driving the stake in Dracula’s heart. The Spurs have Horry who is always ready to make a big block or hit the big shot. The Nuggets need a player like that, but is just such a performer on this roster? The most likely player to grow into that role is Linas Kleiza. He is developing a solid three point shot and has a knack for being at the right place ar the right time. A secondary candidate may be Bobby Jones who has been running some with the first team in practices and has shown a quality three point stroke in the preseason.
No Cruising – The Nuggets have not put a great deal of emphasis on the regular season. They do want to win their division, but that is no longer a guarantee of having a playoff series with home court advantage against a lesser team. They realize that a big key to getting out of the first round is avoiding the Spurs. In order to do that they know they cannot cruise through stretches in the schedule. Teams that earn home court advantage and the right to play the Lakers and Grizzlies of the world in the first round do not take games off. I think the Nuggets recognize this and will put a new sense of urgency into the regular season.
What does it all mean though? Again, I have heard all the right things coming from Nuggets’ players the past two or three seasons in training camp, but when the season starts expectations are rarely met. If the Nuggets have truly learned from the past few seasons and they are ready to validate that potential NBA champion label that some have affixed on them, we should know right off the bat.
This team has been plagued by slow starts the past three seasons. I believe we will know if the Nuggets are for real by the end of November. This team has a legitimate shot to start off in the 13-4 or even 14-3 range. They do not play San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas or Utah and only play the Rockets once during that stretch. However, if we are looking at another 10-7 start, I am afraid that it will be more of the same for Nuggets fans in 2007-2008.
That would be very disappointing for the first season in my life where the Nuggets are considered to be championship contenders.
