Contenders? That is a First for Me

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I have been a die hard Nuggets fan since the mid 1980s (maybe not quite from the time I was out of the womb) and during that time the Nuggets have never been trumpeted as potential world champs heading into the season.  There have been a few nice teams over the years, and a lot of poor ones, but at no time have the Nuggets been considered anything more than a potential playoff team.   

That is until now. 

I have already gone on record to say that this team will have to show me that they are going to produce at an exceptional level before I believe they actually will.  However, they do have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.  That is a fact.  In the Carmelo Era they have not been able to run with the Suns nor have they been able to plod it out against the Spurs or Mavs.  This year may be different and here is why: 

Healthy Bigs – The Nuggets have not had both Kenyon Martin and Nene available at the same time for the past two seasons.  Both can run the floor, both can guard Tim Duncan, both can pass and both can play at the same time.  Obviously, there is no guarantee that these two will stay healthy and both of them will have their minutes monitored to start the season.  As long they can stay healthy they will make for a strong and versatile front court along with Marcus Camby who can also run the floor and pass very well. 

Melo Still Surging – Carmelo Anthony made another leap forward in his development as a player the first part of last season.  That was derailed by the suspension for the brawl with the pathetic Knicks.  Melo has become more and more efficient as a scorer and he continues to develop as evidenced by his performance in the Tournament of the Americas.   

He is a very complete offensive player, but he has three weaknesses.  He settles for too many midrange jumpers.  He can make them though and if he can make them at the rate he did in Las Vegas this summer, this may not be a weakness after all.  Second, he gets his shot blocked frequently in the paint.  Melo is an explosive leaper when he is on the move move, but when it comes to launching himself at the rim after being flat footed in the paint, he is not so dynamic.  Lastly, he insists on shooting threes.  Melo cranked them up at a rate of 2.3 three point attempts a game last season.  That is ridiculous considering he is barely more than a 25% shooter from there.  Perhaps there is a silver lining to this cloud as well.  Over the last month of the season and against the Spurs in the playoffs Melo starting hitting his threes.  He shot 21-46 from behind the arc.  Do the math and that is a rate of 46%.  Melo is not going to become Jason Kapono, but if he can hit threes at a 35% rate, or better, he can help answer some of the constant concerns that follow the Nuggets regarding outside shooting.  He has the form to be a good shooter so this is not an unlikely scenario. 

There is no reason not to believe Melo will not make another stride ahead in his development this season which is great news for the Nuggets. 

Road Warriors – The Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins last season and finished with better than a .500 record at 22-19.  This is a team of veterans and they should be tough to rattle on the road.  There is no reason not to expect this group to build on last season’s success. 

Roll out the Role Player – Another area the Nuggets have fallen short the past few seasons of the Melo Era is they have not had that one role player who is capable of driving the stake in Dracula’s heart.  The Spurs have Horry who is always ready to make a big block or hit the big shot.  The Nuggets need a player like that, but is just such a performer on this roster?  The most likely player to grow into that role is Linas Kleiza.  He is developing a solid three point shot and has a knack for being at the right place ar the right time.  A secondary candidate may be Bobby Jones who has been running some with the first team in practices and has shown a quality three point stroke in the preseason.   

No Cruising – The Nuggets have not put a great deal of emphasis on the regular season.  They do want to win their division, but that is no longer a guarantee of having a playoff series with home court advantage against a lesser team.  They realize that a big key to getting out of the first round is avoiding the Spurs.  In order to do that they know they cannot cruise through stretches in the schedule.  Teams that earn home court advantage and the right to play the Lakers and Grizzlies of the world in the first round do not take games off.  I think the Nuggets recognize this and will put a new sense of urgency into the regular season. 

What does it all mean though?  Again, I have heard all the right things coming from Nuggets’ players the past two or three seasons in training camp, but when the season starts expectations are rarely met.  If the Nuggets have truly learned from the past few seasons and they are ready to validate that potential NBA champion label that some have affixed on them, we should know right off the bat.   

This team has been plagued by slow starts the past three seasons.  I believe we will know if the Nuggets are for real by the end of November.  This team has a legitimate shot to start off in the 13-4 or even 14-3 range.  They do not play San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas or Utah and only play the Rockets once during that stretch.  However, if we are looking at another 10-7 start, I am afraid that it will be more of the same for Nuggets fans in 2007-2008.    

That would be very disappointing for the first season in my life where the Nuggets are considered to be championship contenders. 

Bags Packed and Questions Answered

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I need something to divert my attention away from counting down the minutes to the Rockies first World Series appearance later tonight.  There has been a plethora of Nuggets news this afternoon so it is time for another post. 

First of all the Nuggets have waived five players to get down to 14.  A couple of the departures were mild surprises.   Predictably the Nuggets parted ways with Stacey Augmon and Brad Stricker.  Mike Wilks was shown the door just a couple of days after he was signed.  Anthony Roberson was the first somewhat surprising name.  With the uncertainty at point it might have made sense to keep him around until Anthony Carter was healthy.  Roberson put up good numbers and was the quickest point guard on the roster.   

The name that was a borderline shock to me was Jelani McCoy.  McCoy had proven to be a good rebounder and shot blocker.  As a third string center, behind Camby and Steven Hunter, he was a nice player.  I realize that some teams like carrying only 14 players so that they can add someone whenever they feel like it, but with Nene and Kenyon coming off of injuries and facing limited minutes and Najera seemingly constantly banged up why not hang onto another big body to fill in some potential gaps?   

If the Nuggets have their eye on someone else to fill in that fifteenth spot it may be Jamaal Sampson was just waived by Dallas.  I believed the Nuggets brought McCoy in as a cheap replacement for Sampson.  Now that Sampson has been waived, perhaps he can be a cheap replacement for himself.   

The other news that caught my eye was some questions posed by none other than Coach George Karl himself in an interview.  I believe I know the answers to some of these questions so let’s give it a shot. 

Question #1 – “I don’t know who’s going to be the starters on my team.” 

Answer #1 – OK, so that was actually a statement, but just roll with me.  Opening night starters should be AI, Bobby Jones, Melo, Nene and Camby.  This group was running together during training camp and I like the Jones has been shooting the ball.  He made only one of nine three point attempts, but so far in the preseason he has been shooting the ball very well.  I realize it is just the preseason, but let’s give him a chance to prove himself.  He plays solid defense and is a good passer.  Maybe he is a hidden gem that can be the difference between a good team and a great team.  Who knows? 

Those should be the opening night starters George so there you go. 

Question #2 – “I don’t know how we’re going to play the ‘four’ position, with Kenyon being limited minutes, and Nene will probably be on limited minutes early.” 

Answer #2 – Kenyon and Nene can play at least twenty minutes a piece.  Eduardo is perfectly capable of playing another twenty.  That is 60 minutes of playing for a 48 minute game.  Also, Kleiza has been practicing at the four and Melo is capable of sliding over for short stretches.  Camby and Hunter can play together in a big frontcourt.  Even if Kenyon and Nene can only go 15 minutes each, there are still plenty of options.  My vote is for Najera to fill in the relatively small blanks. 

Question #3 – Not Knowing even the backup (shooting guard/small forward) right now, because Bobby Jones has moved up the ladder.  J.R. (Smith) obviously won’t play for the first three games.” 

Answer #3 – OK, so maybe the question gimmick was not the best ideas as Karl was making statements, but he is definitely stating that he does not know what he is going to do and that is the point.  Anyway, Bobby Jones and Melo are going to start as shown in question #1.  That makes the back up small forward Linus Kleiza.  Von Wafer is the best candidate to fill in behind Jones and depending on how he does J.R. Smith may be relegated to the bench once again.  Wafer has been streaky in camp, but is very capable of hitting open threes which should be available in large quantities.  Once again, if Jones and Wafer play twenty minutes each, that leaves just a handful of minutes for AI to swing over to the two and they will not need to worry about Yakhouba Diawara ending up on the court without his warm ups on.   

Question #4 – “Will I start (Allen Iverson) at point or at off-(guard)?” 

Answer #4 – Finally an actual question.  Vindicated!  Once again see the answer to question #1.  AI will start at the point.  Chucky Atkins is a fill in at best.  The fact that they waived Roberson shows that AI will put in a lot of time at the point as the only other capable points on the roster are Atkins and Johnson.  Atkins is still not 100% and Carter will be out for at least the first two weeks of the season.  Right now there is no other option than playing AI at the point.   

Also, Iverson can slide over to the two, with Atkins or Johnson on the floor, but that is a defensive nightmare for the Nuggets, with the current focus on defense I doubt you will see many minutes played by a smallish back court.   

There you go George.  I hope that was helpful.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Punxsatawney Nuggets

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I better write some kind of training camp update or season preview or else I am going to lose my blogging license.  The Nuggets are fancying themselves as championship contenders.  Players are floating around the number 60 when talking about a potential win total for this team.  They are also talking like posting the best regular season record in the Nuggets NBA lifespan is a given which would require them to claim 55 victories in order to surpass the 54 wins earned by the 1987-1988 Nuggets. 

This kind of talk is not new.  Heading into each of the past three seasons we have heard that the Nuggets will fly past the 50 win mark.  So far, they have failed to do so in any of those seasons.  They were close after they rode the post all-star break wave in 2005 when they ended up with 49 wins.  They backslid the next season and landed on 44 wins, which was very disappointing considering the hot finish they had in 2005.   

Again, last season there was a 50 win buzz surrounding this team.  They then lost Kenyon Martin after two games and Nene was not fully healthy following his ACL surgery.  The Nuggets were finally getting in a winning groove when Isaiah ordered the code red and the Garden fracas went down.  They traded for AI who struggled to play with his new teammates and they promptly went on a losing streak.  When Carmelo Anthony returned, the team once again adjusted poorly.  All told from the time Carmelo was suspended on December 17^th through the end of March the Nuggets were 22-27.   

Heading into April they were 35-36 and in danger of missing the playoffs. 

However, they posted another late season winning streak notching 10 wins in their last 11 games.  Once again Nugget fans had hope heading into the playoffs, but once again they were facing the San Antonio Spurs.  They claimed a game one win in San Antonio as they had in 2005, providing even more hope to the Nuggets faithful.  It was all for naught though as the Spurs claimed each of the next four games to dispatch of the Nuggets just as they had in 2005. 

Things are starting to seem a bit like Ground Hog Day around here.  At the beginning of every season Nuggets fans wake up to the same talk.  Bill Murray was accosted with Sonny and Cher singing “I Got You Babe” but we hear the same platitudes every October about how Melo has matured (which he certainly has), they will have a full training camp to get familiar with the changes from the season before (which they will), they are healthy (only Anthony Carter is currently unable to practice) and ultimately at least fifty wins are a sure thing.   

Something always goes wrong.  Voshon Leonard goes down in the first game of the 2004 season and then the team quit on Jeff Bzdelik causing a slow start following their initial playoff berth in Melo’s rookie season.  Nene was injured on opening night in 2005 and they come out of the gate a little too full of themselves following their torrid finish to the previous season.  Martin ends up lost for the season after two games in 2006 and Melo and JR Smith get suspended in December.  

I wish I could get caught up in the optimistic outlook for this season, but at some point this team is going to have to prove it.  Sure they can get as hot as anyone, but the season is six months long and then the playoffs start.  Heading into this season I have to wonder who is going to get hurt this year?  What dynamic will be responsible for a slow start?  What part of the script will repeat itself that the Nuggets will have to overcome this time? 

This team is deep and talented.  They should win at least 50 games.  They should win the Northwest Division.  They should win a playoff series.  However, this team has not accomplished anything it should have in the previous three seasons.  Why should this one be any different? 

So put your little hand in mine,
there ain’t no hill or mountain we can’t climb… 

I got you babe.