Thumbs Up for the 2007 NBA Draft

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

 Lots of spare thoughts about the draft…

- How could the Blazers have traded Randolph to the Knicks without forcing them to take on Darius Miles as part of the deal?

My concerns about Randolph playing alongside of Oden will are still valid with Randolph playing alongside of Eddy Curry.  What I said in a previous post was Nate McMillen hounded Randolph to play inside instead of setting for 18 footers.  With Oden on the block would Zach be happy to settle for jumpers?  Now with him playing alongside of Curry, will he be happy to settle for jumpers in New York? 

I have more thoughts about the Steve Francis aspect of this deal, but I doubt many people are interested so I have moved it to the end of the blog.

- The Sports Guy stole my thunder in his draft diary, but the trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Brandan Wright seems like the first step in acquiring Yi Jianlian from the Bucks.  Rumors had it that they were shopping Richardson to get a pick high enough to land Yi.  Since Milwaukee drafted Yi, they did the trade anyway hoping that he will refuse to play for the Bucks.  If the Bucks are right and they are able to get Yi to play for them, this was a horrible trade for Golden State.  They should have waited to pull the trigger until they knew Yi was available. 

However, even if they do acquire Yi, they just traded their second best player away for a project the year after making the playoffs for the first time in 12 or 13 years.  I love Monta Ellis and he can more than replace Richardson’s scoring, but he will not provide the all around game and presence that Richardson gave them.  Say hello to the lottery again next season Warrior fans. 

- The other big trade of the night was Ray Allen to Boston for the fifth pick, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  There are a number of issues here so lets take a look at them. 

First, Boston was obviously really shopping that pick hard.  Ainge knew that the fans were tired of the youth movement and his career termination warning light was flashing.  He had to get a veteran for that pick and he did. 

Second, is Allen the right veteran?  Ray Allen will make any team better.  He is a great shooter and a smart player.  With Rajon Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins, they have a very solid playoff quality starting five, but before they start printing playoff tickets in Boston, there is an age and injury question though.  Over the previous four seasons Allen has missed 26 games in 03-04 and 27 games last season.  He will turn 32 in July.  Pierce has been healthy over the previous seven seasons, but missed 35 games last season and will turn 30 before next season starts.  With both of these guys playing on the perimeter, there is a chance that one or both will break down soon.  However, Boston did land a quality veteran without giving up any of their young talent such as Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastien Telfair or Al Jefferson.  Add in Glen Davis who they acquired in the trade, Ryan Gomes, and a healthy Tony Allen and this team is at least ten deep.

There are also interesting issues from Seattle’s standpoint.  Trading Ray Allen kicks off a youth movement that should create a quick return to respectability.  The first question that comes up is was Jeff Green the best pick at #5?  It certainly was not a bad pick, but there were players with more potential there.  They have a sure thing in Durant, the chance to gamble a little with the fifth pick was there.  A player with big time potential such as Yi or Brandan Wright may have given the Sonics a better shot at having a great team in three years instead of a very good one.  On the other hand, Green has a wide range of skills and will be a very good wingman for Durant.  Their skills do complement each other very well.  Ultimately, I do not have a problem with Jeff Green, but at some point in the future they may be kicking themselves for not nabbing either Yi or Wright.

The other big question surrounding Seattle is what does the drafting of two small forward/power forward combo players mean for the future of Rashard Lewis?  Reports were the Sonics want to try to retain him.  I do not think he will want to stay with the current makeup of the team.  I still believe that a sign and trade for him is the best course of action for Seattle. 

- Sacramento will rue the day they drafted Spencer Hawes.  He may be able to toss in some jump hooks around the basket and hit 18 footers, but he cannot rebound or defend and that seems unlikely to ever change.  I am not saying he is Rafael Araujo, but they passed on players with some serious star potential for an average center at best.

- The talent level that available towards the end of the first round and early in the second was very impressive.  We knew this going in, but it is amazing how many late first round picks will not only be on rosters, but contributing next season.  The depth of the draft is why picks such as Aaron Brooks to Houston and Alando Tucker to Phoenix were so bad.  Brooks is too small and Houston now has a glut of point guards, but none of them are very tradeable.  Who wants Alston?  (Silence…crickets chirping…)  Tucker was a strange pick because he cannot shoot.  He is a good player though and with the tempo in Phoenix, he will be a contributor.  The Tucker pick is not nearly as bad as the Brooks selection, but I still thought it was strange.

- Once again Phoenix has just given away a pick thinking that they are saving money.  Someone needs to tell Robert Sarver that another way to save money is to draft good players and then replace your more expensive players with the cheaper player you have drafted.  Would they have had to pay Diaw if they had Deng on the roster?  Would they have had to give Marcus Banks that ridiculous contract if they had drafted Rajon Rondo?

The Suns are going to hit a wall in a couple of years where they fall off the map for two reasons.  Age will eventually catch up with Nash and they have no young players in the pipeline because of their insistence on selling off their draft picks.

- All in all, last night’s draft was about as good of draft as I could remember.  Between the interesting picks, exciting trades and depth of talent the only thing it was lacking was decent commentary.  Can we please give the draft back to TNT?  Give me Hubie, Charles, Kenny and EJ any day of the week over the jokers from ESPN.

- Now the aforementioned Steve Francis commentary…

The reports are the Portland will buy Steve Francis out of his contract and he will never play a game for them.  That raises the question, where will he end up?  I think there are a couple of good options for him if he can play the point unselfishly.

Cleveland needs a guard who can take the pressure off of LeBron, but Francis dominates the ball too much to be a good fit there. Miami is in the market for a point guard too and Francis could help take the pressure off of Wade.  Washington just added Nick Young last night to play the two, but Francis is from the Maryland side of DC, he was drafted in the MCI Center (or whatever it is called now) and hit a big game winner there last late in the season for the Knicks.  Francis could help ease the transition for Young, but are he and Arenas too similar?  I think so. 

What about the Lakers?  If they keep Kobe, which they certainly want to, Francis could be of assistance in upgrading the talent there, but he is more of an iso player than a player who would fit in the triangle.  Would Phoenix want him to help backup Nash?  Francis can definitely excel in that open style, but he would not be a starter and probably would not want to sign there if he could start somewhere else. 

Perhaps a return to Houston is in the cards.  The Rockets have Mike James, Rafer Alston and the recently drafted Aaron Brooks at the point, but they may be interested in Francis at shooting guard.  Would the Nuggets want Francis?  Kiki tried to trade for him a few years ago.  Are there still people in the organization that would like to have him?  If Minnesota fails to trade KG, Francis and Foye would make a dynamic back court combo.  Add in Ricky Davis and Corey Brewer and the Wolves have a more talented team, but would they make the playoffs?  My guess is no.

Several teams are kicking off youth movements such as Philly, Seattle, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Toronto is in a youth movement and Indiana and Sacramento appear prepared to embark on a youth movement. 

I do not see any team that really makes sense for Steve Francis.  I realize that no one probably really cares about where Francis ends up, but I took a flyer in him at the end of the season in my fantasy basketball keeper league with the hope that he would be moved before next season.  So far, so good.

Rumors and Projections That Make no Sense

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

First the KG trade rumors.  It is obvious that the Wolves are working to trade KG before the draft in order to land some picks.  That makes sense.  His value will drop after the draft and bottom out at the trade deadline.  They need to make a deal now.

What makes no sense, if the Stoudemire to Atlanta or Charlotte rumors are true (and that is a big if), and Phoenix is willing to trade Amare, why on earth would Minnesota not take him?  I know cap space and draft picks offer the siren song of the unknown and create excitement, but Amare is an absolute stud who can score at will.  He was rusty for the first month or so of last season and went on a tear after that.  I realize that Minnesota will not have cap space in the future, but if they just nab Amare, they get a top flight player for KG.  What good will cap space do them?  What major free agent will ever want to sign there knowing that they have failed to build around their star player for all of these years?  Minnesota will not get anything better than Amare when they finally trade KG.  They should just do a deal straight up with Phoenix right now.

Why would Milwaukee be interested in Mike Conley?  They have a point guard that they can easily keep as long as they pony up the cash.  Their team will not get better if they draft a PG just to let the one they have go.  Sure they will probably have to pay a little more than Mo Williams is worth to keep him, but the whole goal is to build a team, not replace one player with another.  If they can waive goodbye to Williams and then sign a top free agent with what they save then fine, but who do they think they can sign that will help?  It is doubtful that Conley will even be available to them at #6, but it still bugs me that they were ever considering Conley.

If Joakim Noah is such a great team guy, why is he telling Milwaukee and Minnesota not to draft him?  If he was such a team oriented player, why not go with whoever drafts you and work hard to make that team better?  Steve Francis pulls this with Vancouver and he is an ungrateful jerk.  Noah does it and he is still a media darling.  What’s the difference?

Why doesn’t David Stern just appoint someone to run the Hawks until this ownership issue is resolved?  Having a team that is both such an important position in the draft and being ripe to help implement a major trade mired in conflict is screwing everything up.  If they could have landed Stoudemire, but one owner would not allow it out of spite for the other owners someone should have stepped in and forced things through.  How good would the Hawks be with Amare?  Shelden Williams does not look so bad at the four with Amare on one side and Josh Smith on the other.  Throw in Joe Johnson and that deep bench and you have a very dangerous team.  Now on the other hand, add in Al Horford or Yi Jianlian and Acie Law and what do you have?  Another lottery appearance, that’s what.

What is keeping Boston and Indiana from making deals?  Boston needs to show some progress and Indiana needs to start over.  They are both active in trade discussions, but like I said earlier, player values spike around the draft, unless they have an expiring contract, then their value spikes at the trade deadline.  Neither team is working with a large expiring contract so get something done already.  What does Boston do that will improve them at #5?  Nothing.  Sure they can land another solid prospect, but that is it.  Maybe if they take Jeff Green or Corey Brewer they have a player who will help from day one, but will they be in the playoffs this season?  Next season?  Five years from now?  No one knows.  This team is going nowhere without a trade.  Indiana needs to get rid of Jermaine O’Neal.  It sounds like they are trying, but they need to do something sooner rather than later.

I am hoping that we get some major trades going tonight, but I would not count on it.  At least there is enough suspense surrounding where all the top players will end up since it really is a crap shoot from pick three through 12 or so. 

Let Them Play!

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There has been a push from the media to trade Marcus Camby heading into the draft.  I have two observations.  First there is no way the Nuggets will get a top 12 pick for Camby.  Second, it would be a bad idea even if they could.

One argument for trading Camby is that his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.  My question is, “How high is his trade value?”  Everyone in the league knows that he is getting older and he is an injury risk.  Just because he won the DPOY award does not mean that everyone out there is trying to figure out how they can pry Camby from the Nuggets.

Lets run down the list. 

5th pick – Celtics – Camby will not land the Nuggets the Celtics pick.  It is just too high.  They are talking about players like Shawn Marion with that pick who is much more valuable than Camby. 

6^th pick – Bucks – The Bucks may be interested as a team who needs a shot blocker and rebounder, but with Bogut and Villanueva, why would they trade for Camby? 

7^th pick – Timberwolves – The Wolves would be interested, but Denver would not want to send him inside the division and they need someone to help take the scoring burden off of KG.  If they are definitely trading KG before the draft, then they would be looking to cut salary and bring in young players not bring in an expensive older player. 

8^th pick – Bobcats – Charlotte has their rebounder and shot blocker in Emeka Okafor.  Camby would be redundant, but this does sound like a pick that is in play.

9^th pick – Bulls – The Bulls likewise already have their expensive shot blocker and rebounder in Ben Wallace.

10^th pick – Kings – Sacramento does need a player like Camby, but they are probably ready to blow things up and start over without Bibby and Artest.  Adding Camby would move them further away from that goal.

11^th pick – Hawks – The Hawks are probably not capable of making a trade with their ownership situation the way it is.  Atlanta has been building with youth for the past several years and adding a player like Camby would help, but would put them in a win now situation with Camby’s age.  That makes little sense.

12^th pick – 76ers – Like the Hawks, Philly is in a youth movement and Camby would make little sense.

At this point, if the Nuggets can trade Camby, who are they hoping to get?  Perhaps a player like Nick Young from USC, but they have a similar player in JR Smith who is more advanced and I think JR is a more complete player.   

Another argument is that the Nuggets need to set themselves up to continue to be successful after AI retires.  This is a poor argument as well.  By trying to hedge your bets and weaken yourself this year for the hope of being better off in three or four years you are sacrificing Iverson’s time in Denver.  If you do not think you can beat the top teams in the West, why make the deal for Iverson in the first place? 

Kronke made it known when he approved the trade for AI that the Nuggets were going to try to win now.  He knew what the Nuggets were getting into from a luxury tax standpoint when they made the deal.  The Nuggets should only trade Camby if they can acquire a player that would make them a better team next year.

I am not positive that the Nuggets can beat the Spurs, Suns or Mavs next year, but they sure need to find out.  The Spurs have never repeated as champions even though everyone expects them to every year after they win one.  Duncan and Ginobili stayed healthy all season this year for the first time in a couple of seasons.  They are injury risks that no one every really talks about.  The reason Cuban passed on resigning Nash was his injury history.  He could peter out at any time as well.  The Mavs should be good again, but who knows how this season’s playoff flameout will affect them.

Next year is the Nuggets’ shot at winning it all.  If things do not pan out, then they will be able to work a deal for Camby or AI to restock the shelves for the future.  Camby’s trade value may not be as high after next year, but as I said earlier, is it really that high right now?  AI will be heading into the last year of his contract and that is a big chunk of cap relief for someone. 

As a Nuggets fan, I would be very upset if they made a trade that weakened themselves for this next season.  This is our shot.  If I had to bet, I would not bet on them to win it all next season, but they have a much better chance as constituted than they would without Camby. 

Let them play!

Losing LeBron?

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

I was amazed at what LeBron James did last night in Detroit against a very solid defensive basketball team.  Detroit forced him to take several very difficult shots, but he kept making them.  After Detroit was able to force a second overtime, I told my wife that I did not think LeBron could keep hitting those off balance 23 footers with a hand in his face.  Well, he kept hitting them, and when all was said and done, LeBron had wrapped up his first special playoff performance. 

As exciting as it was to watch and as much as I would like to see if LeBron can dish the same punishment out on the Spurs, I wonder if it is good for LeBron’s long term future as a player to go to the finals, and perhaps even win a championship, this early in his career.  He is only 22 and he has already started drifting through regular season games and even some playoff games.  If he can just cruise through the regular season at this age and win a title, won’t his focus wane even more as he gets older? 

If he believes he can turn it on whenever he wants and win any game he has to, will he ever be driven enough to actually reach his potential and to play hard enough throughout his career to win as many championships as possible. 

I fear that if LeBron wins this year at this young age, it may be bad for his development.  Over the course of the last 25 to 30 years in the NBA, great players have had to work relentlessly for their championship moments.  Players have had to know failure in order to realize how hard they had to work for greatness.  The Celtics and 76ers sharpened each other in the playoffs in the early 1980s.  The Celtics and the Lakers pushed each other to amazing heights in the 1980s.    The Celtics forced the Pistons to get better and better until they finally reached the top.  The Pistons then in turn were an obstacle to the Bulls on their way to winning their six championships. 

Look at the great players that had to learn to get over the hump.  Magic won a championship in his rookie season, but every other player on those dominant teams had to work and work to get to the Finals and then win.  Go down the list, Bird, Dr. J, Isaiah Thomas, Jordan, they all had a burning desire that was forged over several years of playoff disappointment. 

LeBron is in his fourth year, but is still insanely young.  What obstacle will forge him into the player that he can be?  He is already a great player, but I do not think even he knows how great he can be.  In order to truly reach his potential, he must have that desire that burns every minute and that fire has traditionally been stoked by the process of running into a dominant obstacle year after year. 

The bad news is the current state of basketball in the Eastern Conference is not helping us out.  The Pistons are the “dominant” team of recent years, but at this point, they are not anywhere near being a great team.  Miami is a team that could cause the Cavs some tough challenges, but only if Shaq is somewhere near his dominant self.  Right now that conference is so weak that LeBron can drift through significant portions of the season and playoffs and still get his team to the finals. 

Of course, I may be jumping the gun as Cleveland has yet to advance to the finals.  If they do, they will have to defeat a more talented and much better coached Spurs team.  However, if LeBron can pull it off, we may have lost the most talented player ever before he even scrapes the surface of his amazing abilities.