Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll
This may come as a strange time to begin a Denver Nuggets blog with our “heroes” facing elimination at the hands of the hated Spurs, but this playoff season and off-season is going to be the most important for the Nuggets since the mid 1980’s.
I have been greatly disappointed by the results of the last three games of the current playoff series. The inability of the Nuggets to win a game at home against the Spurs for the second time in three years is completely deflating.
Entering this series I was not expecting the Nuggets to win the series, but I did expect them to at least make a strong showing. I wanted to see game six. Another playoff series that saw the Nuggets only win on game would be an utter letdown.
Baring an explosion from Allen Iverson, I do not believe the Nuggets have it in them to win game 5. San Antonio has a killer instinct to close out every playoff series in as few games as possible. The Nuggets have to be as disappointed as the fans are at the result of the previous two home games. It would take a strong effort on every player’s part to put that behind them and play tonight’s game with the passion they brought to Games 1 and 4.
We have all seen the Nugget’s shortcomings on the floor, but let me weigh in on what I believe the real problems are that have caused them to falter.
1. The complete surrender of the transition game to the Spurs. Denver has not tried to run and push the pace for any prolonged period of time. There have been a couple of sequences here and there where they have done it, but they have given up their commitment to running. The Spurs are great at shutting down even the best transition games, but simply accepting that as the status quo of the series has been a grave mistake on the Nuggets’ part.
2. No benefit from the bench. The Nuggets have had no contribution from their bench whatsoever. Najera has had a few moments here and there, but the now benched JR Smith and Linus Kleiza have been complete no shows. This has been an obvious issue throughout the series and we have all seen the statistical comparison between the two benches over and over again, but George Karl has done nothing to attempt to change that. Now that they are on the brink of elimination, we may see some new faces tonight, but even if players like Diawara, DerMarr Johnson, Reggie Evans or Anthony Carter play well the damage has been done. Also, this problem has a direct impact on problem #1. When guys know that they are going to be playing 40+ minutes a game, they want to pace themselves, thus eliminating their commitment to the running game.
I started off by saying that this off-season is crucial to the Nuggets, the reason is they need to add a couple of assets that can come off the bench and provide a boost. The Spurs can bring guys like Horry, Finley (Ginobili is a starter that gets his rest at the beginning of the first quarter instead of at the end of it) and Barry off the bench. If one of them does not fit in well (Barry) they can overcome it with their other options.
3. A coaching mismatch. George Karl has done a pretty good job with this series, but at the one of the two or three defining moments of the series Popovich got the best of him. When the Spurs went small to start the fourth quarter of game 4, the Nuggets were caught in a couple of mismatches that cost them several points. Karl also has also allowed the running game to be dismissed and has not pressed the team to incorporate Nene and Carmelo more. Nene has proven that he is too much for Duncan to handle in the post by himself and has been great on the pick and roll.
To be fair, this is not all Karl’s fault. Whoever has the ball in his hands needs to get the team in the position to succeed. In game 4 Iverson was the man with the ball in his hands and too often he called his own number when both Melo and Nene were shooting very well. However, ultimately, the coach needs to make sure the players do what is smart and if they do not, the responsibility falls on him.
4. Plain old bad luck. The Nuggets have played well, but they are missing that little bit extra something that could put them over the top. It could have come from either Kleiza or Smith hitting a couple of threes. They are a combined 1-18 from distance in the series. If they both just shoot 33%, which is below both of their season percentages, that is good for an extra 15 points. How big would an extra 15 points be in this series? Another example of bad luck is when Blake stepped on the three point line and made a two instead of a three to tie the game. Little things like that haunt you and it takes a special team to overcome obstacles such as those. At this point, the Nuggets are not yet a special team.
You will notice I put no blame on the officials. I honestly believe that this series has been officiated pretty evenly. Nene has been given some leeway on defending Duncan that I have not seen in the past. Ginobili has not been on a parade to the foul line as he was in 2005. If I had any complaints it would be the fact that Duncan has been called for an average of 1.5 fouls a game. That is preposterous and I can only attribute it to his clever statement that he hopes the refs did not hold the Crawford suspension against him.
With that I will say that I believe the Nuggets can win tonight and if they do, I have a difficult time believing the Spurs can win a fifth straight playoff game in Denver. Iverson is due to break out and Melo does not want to go down 4-1 for the fourth time in his four seasons.
Of course when all you can point to who is due what, it is clear that you need chance to be on your side. Maybe the bad luck the Nuggets have been experiencing can fade away for at least one night.
