Does the Lottery Need to be Fixed?

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Everyone is concerned with fixing the lottery and stopping tanking.  The point has been made that tanking has never proven to be an effective strategy.  Experience has shown that the likelihood of receiving the top pick is not greatly increased by finishing a couple of spots lower in the standings.  Case in point, which two teams tanked the most this season?  Boston and Milwaukee.  Where are they drafting?  Fifth and sixth. 

With the three worst teams by record missing out on the first three picks everyone is going to want to change the system.  Most people want to increase the chances of the worst teams winning the top pick.  Between the Grizzlies, Celtics and Bucks they had a combined probability of over 60% that one of them would end up with the first pick.  How much more likely does it need to be?  Also, the other eleven teams have to have some chance of winning or else it is not a lottery.

I have two ideas to change the lottery.  One idea is to eliminate some of the better teams from the lottery by only allowing the teams with the ten worst records.  If teams are still fighting for a playoff spot, they will probably not be thinking about losing games and sacrificing their playoff chances to get into the lottery.  Of course, teams will still want a chance at getting in the lottery and there will still be tanking by the teams that are on the fringe of getting in the lottery or getting left out, but it will not be a month long process. 

Using this year as an example, New Orleans and Los Angeles were in the playoff hunt until the last day or two of the season, and Indiana and Philadelphia were still in the hunt in the last week as well.  We could assume that every season there will be a couple of teams in each conference that will still be fighting for a playoff spot who end up on the outside looking in.  By making the lottery open to only ten teams the probability of a bad team winning increases.  We also do not have to worry about a borderline playoff team ending up with the number one pick, which is why the league went to the weighted system in the first place.  Lets just take the teams that no one wants to see win out of the equation altogether.

My second idea is to draw for the top two picks instead of the top three.  That way the team with the worst record is guaranteed at least a top three pick and the built in disincentive to tank that the lottery is supposed to provide remains intact.  With this idea the worst case scenario of picking third is better than the current worst case scenario of picking fourth. 

Ultimately, does the lottery really need to be changed?  It drew more attention this year because there were two franchise players to be had and everyone wanted a top two pick.  Some seasons there are two or three franchise players, some seasons there are none.  In the end, the lottery did its job and the teams that tried the most to end up with the top pick were left wondering how they ended up picking outside the top two. 

We will never be able to completely eliminate tanking unless the weighting teams chances based on record is eliminated and none of us want that.  Human nature will probably keep telling teams that even if it is not very likely for them to end up with the top pick, their chance are increased by losing games so they are selling themselves short if they do not do all they can to finish with as many ping pong balls as possible.

We just have to hope the lottery keeps doing its job and fate punishes the teams that do what they can to lose games down the stretch instead of win.

Welcome to the Northwest Division Greg and Kevin!

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The NBA Lottery drama is over and it is time to start getting back to some more Nugget specific posts.  The lottery had a potentially huge impact on Denver last night as two of our division rivals are poised to add a sure thing future star.  The star power in the Northwest Division is on the rise. 

Portland is an up and coming team with some really nice young talent.  The have the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, the second overall pick in the draft from last year in LeMarcus Aldridge, a raw point guard with amazing potential in Sergio Rodriguez and now they will probably be adding Greg Oden to roam the paint.  (Also, do not forget about Joel Freeland either.  Odds are that he will end up a rotation player at best, but a lot of scouts were very high on him heading into the draft last season.)  If there is a team with a better talent base to build off of with the potential to be dominant in two or three years, I would like to know who it is. 

Portland also has the option to draft Durant, which might actually be the best choice for them.  Picking Durant would give them a starting five of Jack/Rodriguez, Roy, Durant, Randolph and Aldridge.  Anyone want to bet against that group being dominant in three years?  Me neither.  I actually think that Durant is a better fit for this team as Oden is going to have to operate on the block, which will minimize Randolph’s opportunities there.   Randolph has a decent perimeter game, but Nate McMillen worked very hard last season to get Zach to focus on playing inside instead of outside.  If Oden is the pick, look for Randolph to be traded. 

Seattle may have won the rights to the second pick in the draft, but it is not a cure all for them.  However, this pick gives them the potential to really blow things up and start from scratch.  Durant is a big upgrade over Rashard Lewis as a defender, rebounder and general all around force, and they can now work out a sign and trade for Lewis with the knowledge that they have someone to not only take his place, but exceed his production.  Ray Allen has been the star and face of the franchise since he arrived, but Durant’s star power will allow them to move Ray.  They should be able to get some pretty nice pieces by trading Allen and/or Lewis. 

On the other hand, if Seattle hangs onto Lewis and Allen, they are just a point guard away from being able to go small and run a Phoenix type system.  Seattle has been a team that has tried to outscore the opposition for the past three or four years, adding Durant gives them three 20+ point per game scorers.  Either way, the Sonics are going to be much better in the near future.  It will be interesting to see what they do, because they seem to believe that the division title they won three years ago was legit.  The only reason they have not repeated was because of injuries and at any time they will return to their rightful place as division champs.  I tend to disagree with that assessment though.

The big losers in the lottery, other than Boston and Memphis, may turn out to be Denver, Utah and Minnesota, but the team that may have had a nail driven in the coffin last night was Minnesota.  Not only did they not move up from the seventh selection, they are on the verge of becoming the least talented team in the Northwest Division.  It is one thing for Kevin Garnett to be on a team that just misses the playoffs by a couple of games, but to be on the worst team in the division would probably cause Garnett to spontaneously combust. 

From the Nuggets’ perspective, they should still be a better team than Portland and Seattle next season, but over the next couple of seasons things could change quickly.  Iverson’s contract expires in two years and if he does not believe that Denver is a contender, he will definitely look to sign somewhere else.  Aside form his contract his health could expire at any time.  Add in Camby who is always a health risk and Kenyon Martin who is barely a risk to ever actually be healthy and the Nuggets are paying a lot of money for what is far from a sure thing. 

Right now the Northwest Division belongs to Utah and Denver, but in a couple of years it may be Portland and Seattle’s division.  Then again, maybe Oden turns into Sam Bowie and Durant ends up playing like Keith Van Horn.  Just don’t count on it.

The Future is Tonight for Two Lucky Teams

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Today may be one of the most important days in the history of the NBA and I am not talking about the second game of the Spurs/Jazz series.  Tonight is the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.  Two teams will know after the upcoming event in Secaucus, NJ (is there a more well known town in New Jersey other than
Atlantic City than Secaucus?) if they have acquired the savior of their franchise. 

Going into every lottery there is an understanding about where the top tier of talent ends and thus which picks are most prized.  In 2003 everyone wanted one of the top three picks so you knew you would be able to draft LeBron, Melo or Darko.  In 1997 it was the number one pick or bust as everyone wanted Tim Duncan.  Tonight every team and every fan of those teams is praying that they end up with one of the top two picks. 

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are the prizes.  After tonight, two teams and their fan bases will believe that they have a shot at contending, and twelve other teams and their fans will be crushed.

In my mind the question becomes which teams absolutely must land a top two pick tonight in order to have a future that does not include constant return trips to Secaucus, NJ?  Below we rank the lottery teams with a desperation level between 1 and 10 with 10 being the most desperate.

Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has struggled to be competitive since they were placed in
Vancouver in 1995.  Over that time they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Coming into this season they had put together a string of three straight playoff appearances.  They started off the season without Pau Gasol, but they never really improved after his return from a broken foot.  This team has a lack of top level talent and a lack of young talent as recent draft picks by Jerry West have been shaky at best. 

Memphis may have had the worst record in the league last season, but they really are not that far away from being a playoff team again should they end up with a top two pick.  On the other hand, getting any player other than Durant or Oden will firmly place the Grizzlies into rebuilding mode.  Gasol will most likely demand a trade and the next GM will have to start from scratch. 

How important is the lottery to Memphis?  They have a countdown clock that goes to the thousandth of a second and are promoting four lottery parties on their homepage.

Desperation Level – 10 

Boston Celtics– Boston fans are desperate for Oden or Durant.  They lost out on Tim Duncan and the franchise has never really recovered.  However, they do have an all-star talent in Paul Pierce and several very nice young building blocks.  Celtic fans do not want to think about not ending up with a top two pick, but I believe they are a team that could withstand falling in the lottery and still turn things around.  They are guaranteed a top five pick and will be able to add another quality player.  Danny Ainge can either hope to develop the youngsters, which has had relatively poor results so far, or package some of the young talent in a trade for another veteran. 

Celtic fans are getting lean on patience, but the biggest issue surrounding the team is the culture of losing more than the talent level.  A top two pick will not solve that problem, but they are not in as bad of a position as some of the other lottery teams.

Desperation Level – 7 

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are in danger of becoming one of those teams that are just good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not bad enough to land a top pick in the lottery.  They had serious injury issues this season with Charlie Villanueva missing most of the season and Michael Redd missing about 20 games.  When healthy, they are a borderline playoff team.

No matter where they pick, they should be able to acquire another good piece of the puzzle.  Wherever they pick in the draft it will be equally as important for the Bucks to retain Mo Williams.  Losing him could offset the addition of a great player form the draft.  However, the cupboard is not bare and failing to end up in the top two picks will be disappointing, but not crippling for the Bucks.

Desperation Level – 7  

Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are the make it or break it team in the Lottery.  If they end up with a top three pick, they keep their pick.  If it is fourth or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix.  The Hawks also are in dire need of Greg Oden much more than Kevin Durant.  They almost have to end up with the top pick.  Durant would definitely be an upgrade for them, but he will only add to their glut of swingmen and force them to make a trade, which will most likely be a bad one given their inept management and ongoing ownership battle. 

This is a team that absolutely must win the lottery if they are ever going to turn things around.

Desperation Level – 10  

Seattle Supersonics – Just three seasons ago Seattle was the surprise of the NBA.  If they have a healthy Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they can play with anyone.  Most likely Lewis has played his last game in Seattle and Ray Allen will be left to toe the line alone.  Seattle is heading for the Western Conference basement.  They need a top two pick as badly as anyone.  Any other scenario will most likely end up only slowing down the rate of decline. 

If the Sonics leave Secaucus without Oden or Durant, look for them to be playing somewhere else soon and looking at a permanent hotel reservation for mid May in New Jersey.

Desperation Level – 9 

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers have perhaps the best young group of players in the league.  Add in post playing beast Zach Randolph, who will only be 26 on opening day next season, and this is a potentially dangerous team.  They most likely will be active again to land the player they want as they were last season.  Oden or Durant may push Portland to the next level immediately next season, but really there are several players in the draft that will help them become a playoff team.  How far they go beyond that depends on the rest of their young players.

Desperation Level – 5 

Minnesota Timberwolves– They are wasting the last superstar quality years that Kevin Garnett has left.  I am shocked that he played as well as he did last season after a bad knee hampered his previous season.  Anything other than a top two pick and KG may never make the playoffs again unless he demands to be moved.

Desperation Level – 10 

Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte is another team with a nice young nucleus.  They are a player away from becoming a playoff team.  The need for a top two pick really is necessary from a business standpoint.  They need to put butts in the seats and no player on their roster really excites the locals.  Wherever they draft, they should acquire a player that will help them immediately to push for the playoffs next season.  Oden or Durant would make them a potential force down the road, but even without one of them, this team is heading in the right direction.

Desperation Level – 7 (for ticket selling purposes) 

New York Knickerbockers – Say hello to the one team that wants to finish as low as possible in the lottery.  The Bulls are going the end up with their pick so…

Chicago Bulls– The Bulls are still reaping the benefits of trading Eddy Curry to the Knicks.  If memory serves, they even get a second round pick next year as part of the deal.  Obviously, the Bulls are a top quality team in the East.  Oden or Durant would put them over the top, but they really are not that far away from making it on their own.  They will most likely end up with a top ten pick and will be primed to add a player that will fit into their defense first system.  Oden or Durant would be nice, but certainly the Bulls will survive without either one.

Desperation Level – 3 

Sacramento Kings– This team is on the decline after trading Webber and losing Divac to old age.  The only young talent they have is Kevin Martin and he is a complementary player, although a very good one.  Everyone else is on the downside of their career and who knows when Ron Artest will detonate again.  These guys need a franchise player in the worst way.  Oden or Durant would prop them up and allow Bibby to be a play maker and catch and shoot threat, allow Martin to play with less defensive attention and allow Brad Miller to come off the bench (if they get Oden). 

This is another franchise that had success very recently that is heading into a downward spiral. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Indiana Pacers – And we have yet another team facing a decline after several years of relative success.  Jermaine O’Neal may want out and they have a mix of over the hill vets, has beens, never wases (you can make up words in a blog right?) and a couple of nice young players.  If they keep O’Neal they should be a playoff team again next season as long as they nab an impact player late in the lottery.  If they get a top two pick, this team is back in business.  Oden would allow O’Neal to play the four and take a little less beating night in and night out.  Durant would give them a top scorer to take the pressure off of Jermaine. 

The Pacers are beginning to realize that the window for this team has pretty much closed.  They need some young talent and they need a top two pick if they want to really turn things around.

Desperation Level – 8.5 

Philadelphia 76ers – These guys made an admirable push after the AI trade and have a decent talent level.  A top two pick may make them the equal of any team in the east, but a lottery pick should help them make another step forward in building a quality team. 

Desperation Level – 6.5 

New Orleans Hornets – This team was a late season injury to Chris Paul away from making the playoffs.  They will be better next season and if they can add a decent piece in the late lottery, they will be ready to make the playoffs next season.  It is difficult to tell if they are a team that has the potential to consistently push into the playoff mix year after year, or if they are a team that will consistently finish ninth in the conference.  Their chances of claiming a top two pick are very slim, but winning either Oden or Durant might push them up to the tier of teams just below the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.

Desperation Level – 5 

Los Angeles Clippers – This team was a game away from the playoffs, but they are a complete mess.  Cassell is probably done being a late game dominator.  Kaman has regressed, Maggette does not get along with the coach.  The future star, Shaun Livingston, is rehabbing from a horrid injury and who know what will become of him.  This is an old team that is on the cusp of falling off the cliff.  They need a star player to help Brand out.  Without a top two pick, these guys will be back to the same old Clippers that we knew in the 80s and 90s. 

Desperation Level – 9 

Of course, all of this may be irrelevant.  In 2003 the Miami Heat are probably pretty happy that they ended up fifth and were able to draft Dwayne Wade (not to mention Toronto and Chris Bosh) and we all know how much Darko ended up helping Detroit.  In 1997, there were a couple of other quality players drafted such as Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups.  There are almost always players that are not thought to be in the top tier of talent that end up becoming tremendous NBA players, and conversely, there are players thought to be in the top tier that end up floundering in the NBA. 

We will not know with 100% certainty which team will end up with the best player out of this draft or which pick he will be selected with, but two groups of fans will believe that luck has granted their team a bright future in the person of either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. 

You know how we always get a commercial break after the third pick is revealed to build the suspense before the second pick announced which reveals who won the first pick?  I bet ESPN gives us a commercial break before pick three is announced and we find out who is in the top two this time instead.  This year the second pick is just that important.

CORRECTION and UPDATE:  Indiana loses their pick unless they win one of the top three picks.  Because of that I have upgraded their desperation level to an 8.5.  Chad Ford ran almost the exact article I posted (including a desperation scale from 1 to 10) and it looks like we both come to the same conclusion on most teams.  The one major difference was the Clippers.  Mr. Ford believes the Clippers are in better shape than I do.   

David Stern Gone Wild!

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Crank up the late night commercials with the drunk girls committing all kinds of debauchery.  Is David Stern looking into a camera in his office and slowly pulling up his dress shirt?  It is a possibility because we have another episode of David Stern Gone Wild queued up in the DVD player.

 

Anyway, I will try to keep from beating a dead horse, or a dead playoff season, but with the Nuggets out and the Jazz sitting in the Western Conference Finals (how the Sam Hill did that happen?) awaiting the winner of the Suns/Spurs series I have to write a little more about the suspension to Amare and Diaw. 

I just listened to David Stern’s performance on The Dan Patrick Show and I was pretty shocked at his demeanor.  He was very combative, disingenuous and sarcastic.  I have no idea how many other interviews he had done to that point, I am guessing not more than a handful, but he escalated the conversation to a contentious debate immediately.  I was impressed that Dan Patrick was able to maintain his composure.  Stern made the interview very difficult from start to finish. 

Patrick tried to make the point that this was not a couple of scrubs in a mid season game, but this was an All-NBA player had been suspended form a crucial playoff game.  Stern instantly mocked him saying that he will take note next time not to apply the rule to star players even though this is a valid point that.  The situation calls for a more significant look at the rule and how it should be applied. 

Stern did say that he was not pleased with the result of the penalty and he would be happy to work with owners to change the rule if the owners so desire.  He played the victim the entire time claiming that he had no choice but to follow the rule as it was written, which he believes leaves no room for interpretation. 

Stern seems to revel in the perception that he will do the “right” thing every time based on the rules.  It does not even matter if in the short term the consequences for his league are negative.  He knew he would take the bullet and this would be an unpopular decision.  In his mind he has stood up for what is right, but it is more about what he believes the sponsors of the league want to see.  This decision was about his view of himself and how he wants to be perceived by others than about the NBA and what is best for the fans that make the league go. 

It did take courage, in a masochistic way, to implement the rule based on a strict interpretation, but it would have also taken courage to decide that Amare and Diaw could play tonight.  Doing the right thing is not always doing the hard thing.  We could have all taken umbrage that the rule did indeed work and no one from either bench entered the altercation. 

It has been pointed out in many places that it is natural to stand up for your teammates, especially you small point guard with a bad back.  Add in the fact that the Spurs (Bruce Bowen) are doing all that can be done to rough up Nash and Amare and can nay of us blame Amare and Diaw for how they reacted?  Then in a split second, they realized that they could not rush onto the court and they returned to the bench.  Did what they do in any way threaten to heighten the tensions or escalate the altercation between the two teams?  Obviously it did not.

This decision is designed to make a statement that there is no place for violence in the NBA.  Stern believes that if they stick to the strict interpretation of this rule that players will learn to sit still with their hands in their laps when any potential brouhaha is simmering.  This position is preposterous.  If no suspension had been levied, would players instantly begin running away from the immediate vicinity of their bench in order to get involved in fights?  Of course not, and that is the bottom line of this argument.  Would we be heading down a slippery slope leading the NBA to lose control of its players?  A thousand times no. 

The rule has worked and continues to work.  It worked in New York when the Nuggets and Knicks got into it and it worked Monday in San Antonio, but apparently it did not work well enough for David Stern because Amare and Diaw got too close to being to close.

In my previous post I gave a couple of alternatives that the league could have chosen in order to avert this very situation, but in looking at the rule closer, my favorite one is not an option.  I wanted to see Amare and Diaw sit out the first game of next season, but the rule states that any suspension must be served the following game, unless enough players are suspended that the team cannot field the minimum of eight players.  Talk about no room for interpretation.

The two remaining logical alternatives that the league could have worked from are Amare and Diaw did not leave the immediate vicinity of the bench, or that this was not a true altercation as no fight took place.  Either one of those would have preserved the spirit of the law and allowed the game tonight to be played at full strength.  It is clear that the term “altercation” is open for interpretation because Stu Jackson claimed in a separate interview that when Tim Duncan was on the court there was no altercation between Francisco Elson and James Jones.  I am sure we could come up with a more vague word than altercation, but it would not be easy.

It is sad that the league could not realize that they could maintain the integrity of the rule and still allow the actions of Amare and Diaw to go unpunished.  Doing so would not have caused an eruption of bench clearing brawls nor would it have ushered in a new era of violence.  It just would have preserved this series that is about all we have left to enjoy in this playoff season.  Then again, maybe
Phoenix plays out of their minds tonight and pull off a true upset that will change the balance of power and signal an end to the Spurs era. 

I guess even without Amare we all better watch tonight, you never know when history might be made.  That is what is so great about sports even when commissioners go wild.

Suspension of Common Sense

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The NBA has frustrated its fans once again.  There were many different ways that the NBA could have avoided making the decision to suspend Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for Game 5 of what is probably the most anticipated series of the post season. 

The rule states that players cannot leave the immediate area of the bench during an altercation. 

The league could have determined that they never crossed the border for the coach’s box and thus had not left the immediate area of the bench.

The league could have determined that this was not an “altercation.”  This was the reasoning that they cited when they decided to ignore the instance where Tim Duncan walked out on the court after Francisco Elson and James Jones got in each other’s way after an Elson dunk in the first half.  If there was no altercation, why was Duncan on the floor?  He definitely was not going to the scorer’s table to check in either.  (Can everyone please stop calling for Bruce Bowen to be suspended for leaving the bench too?  All he did was reach out and pull Duncan back.  Again, I dislike Bowen as much as anyone, but being irrational like that does not forward our case.)

The league could have decided that this was not a big deal, which is accurate because it wasn’t, and ignored the rule.

Any of those arguments could be seen as inconsistent with previous league decisions (thanks for pointing that out so openly in the post game show Charles).  I can understand why the league may be hesitant to apply one of those solutions even though they should have.  Here are some other options that would not have called for Jackson and Stern to look the other way and would have kept their tough guy personas in tact.

The league could have decided that the rule would be enforced, but suspensions would not take place until the next regular season. 

If they really wanted to be tough guys, they could have decided that Duncan would be suspended for game 5 as well for leaving the bench during the “non-altercation” mentioned above.  This would have left both teams roughly equally depleted and reinforced the do not ever leave the bench during any action that could fall under the guise of an altercation for everyone.

I believe that the deciding factor for the suspensions was the fact that the NBA suspended a handful of important Knick players several years ago and they lost the series to the Heat because of it.  In a roundabout way the league probably believed that had they not punished the Suns now, the Knick fans would have felt like they had been screwed retroactively. 

There are a couple of very big differences between the Knicks’ actions and the Suns’ actions.  There actually was a fight, which is the term that should be written into the rule instead of altercation, in the instance where the Knicks were suspended.  There was no fight in the Suns/Spurs “altercation.”  More importantly, this rule was designed for teams like the Knicks who were ready to throw down at a moment’s notice, especially when the Heat were involved.  The Suns are about as far away from that type of team as possible.  Not only are the Suns not fighters, they are consistently labeled as “soft.” 

The NBA has shown that they are willing to look at other issues on a case by case basis.  Why not this one?  Fights have been largely phased out in the NBA, a great deal of the credit for that goes to the rule in question.  The fact that the league is different now and much less violent, should allow the league to bend a little on the interpretation of that rule. 

I am upset beyond words that the series has been hampered by this silly abuse of power by David Stern and Stu Jackson, but when all is said and done, the blame ultimately is at the feet of the Suns’ coaching staff.  Players are going to get fired up and want to help a teammate when they are drilled with an unnecessarily hard foul or cheap shot, but coaches are supposed to be more cerebral than that. 

The replay shows the Suns’ coaches running in the direction of the “altercation” with arms flailing and mouths agape.  It is not easy to see because all the action took place at the edge of the Suns bench, but in some replays you can see the Spurs’ bench and it is easy to notice a Spurs coach standing with his back to the action hands and feet spread out wide blocking Spurs players from leaving the immediate area of their bench. 

Ultimately, the Suns did break the rule leaving themselves open to a close minded, authoritarian decision by Jackson and Stern, but for the good of the game, a better decision could have, and should have, been applied in this situation. 

Hong Kong Bowen?

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I had written four paragraphs defending Bruce Bowen from the accusations made by Amare Stoudemire that Bowen had purposely kicked Amare in the Achilles.  I explained that I dislike Bowen as much as anyone else and even though he has a history of making plays that have caused injuries before, this was too much of a stretch.  I had written that he was simply rushing up to try to make a play and as he tried to plant his feet to jump, his right foot slipped and the momentum of his movement carried it forward into the back of Amare’s leg. 

I had put together my argument and decided that the one piece of evidence that would prove my point for good was where Bowen’s head was facing.  I went back to the YouTube clip fully expecting to see Bowen’s head looking up at Amare as he attempts his dunk.  Obviously, if he was trying to kick Amare, he would have to be looking at Amare’s leg.  With his gaze directed up towards the rim, it would prove the other evidence I put forward that even though Bowen is a rough player with a history of tactics that can, and have, caused injuries, this was not one of those instances. 

What I saw definitely did not prove my hypothesis. 

Right as Bowen approaches Amare, his head seems to tilt down as if he is looking at the location where his foot meets Amare’s leg. 

I had also written that by looking at the motion of Bowen’s arms that they are consistent with a player who is preparing to jump, and then loses his balance.  Once again, I think I judged incorrectly.  Bowen does lean back and his arms come up after he kicks Amare, but instead of an action designed to regain his balance, it looks like an action of self preservation.  He knows he made contact with Amare’s leg and he is putting his arms up to protect himself in case Amare falls backwards, which he does to an extent, and lands on Bowen. 

I do not think we can determine for sure whether or not Bowen purposely kicked Amare in the leg.  However, the evidence on the video certainly does not eliminate the possibility that Bowen did have intent to kick Amare on the play.  It is not as obvious as Kobe’s flying elbow trick whenever someone blocks his shot at the end of games, but knowing Bowen and seeing the video, can we put it past him?

The Rockets Screwed the Warriors

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I have had as much fun on the Warrior Playoff Bandwagon as anyone, but I am afraid that we will see it come to a halt in the second round of the playoffs. 

I certainly hope I am wrong, but I think Utah is the second worst team to for them to play in the western conference.  The only team that they are less likely to beat than Utah is San Antonio.  Both the Spurs and Jazz play a controlled style and can keep from getting caught up in the Warriors’ frenzied pace.  Utah will not get bowled over by the crowds in Oakland the way the Mavs did.  To top it all off, they have a player who is just as god as any of the Warriors at making momentum swinging threes in Mehmet Okur, which will be an important aspect of the matchup.   

I think that Andris Biedrins can do a good job of defending Boozer should Nellie decide to go big in an effort to contain him and Al Harrington should have a more prominent role in this series as they will need him to guard both Boozer and Okur.  However, Utah will play their style and they have the talent at the point and in the frontcourt to handle Golden State. 

It should be a close series and the Warriors are certainly not to be counted out, but if I had to put money on it, Utah would be my bet. 

Back to the Future

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

There is a one significant bright spot heading into next season for the Nuggets and that is the development of Nene. 

Nene came into the league as a raw youngster out of Brazil who was huge and athletic, but was not really a basketball player.  In his rookie season as a 20 year-old, he showed great promise both as a defender and as a finisher.  He looked and played a little bit like a young Karl Malone.  His shot was very inconsistent, but he had a fluid stroke that showed potential for development. 

On defense Nene looked like a natural.  Inside his size and strength made him a tough matchup for even the best post players.  On the perimeter his quickness made him one of the best big men in the league at hedging on screens.  Several times point guards coming off a high screen at the top of the three point line were surprised to suddenly see Nene streaking in the opposite direction with the ball after swiping it form them. 

Nene seemed like a perfect fit for the Nuggets with his ability to run the floor and play very good defense.  Once he learned to hit fifteen foot jumpers both from the wing and at the line, and developed his post play to take advantage of his size and quickness the Nuggets would have a high quality power forward for the next ten years. 

For some reason Nene regressed some in his second season even though his numbers were slightly better.  The jump shot that we all knew he was working on, even on the court before games, never came around.  Instead of having a knack for low post scoring, he seemed to have a knack for producing shots that left observers wondering, “How did he get that to roll out?” 

Nene’s future became more cloudy in 2004-2005 when the Nuggets pulled off a sign and trade for Kenyon Martin.  No longer was Nene the power forward of the present or the future in Denver.  This seemed to hurt both his attitude and development as he openly wondered how much longer he would be a Nugget.  Nene struggled through an injury plagued 55 game season that saw career lows in every category but free throw percentage and blocks.  Now his ability to rebound was coming into question and we were still waiting for that post game and jump shot to reach even serviceable levels.

As bad as his third season was, Nene’s fourth season was a low point.  Just three minutes into action in the first game of the season in San Antonio, Nene blew out his knee.  What was once a very promising career had now turned into another potential Nugget disaster along the lines of LaPhonso Ellis.  A young promising career that never really got started was looking to be derailed.  On top of everything else, Nene signed a large contract extension which left Nugget fans confused and upset.  The Nuggets were already shelling out a huge amount of money to one perpetually injured power forward in Kenyon Martin.  Now they are doing it again? 

Nene was able to come back from his ACL injury early on in the season, but he was physically out of shape and weighed down both physically and by the contract extension he had just signed.   

To the Nuggets’ credit, they never gave up on Nene and realized all along that he was not damaged goods, nor had he tapped into his potential yet. 

As we said, Nene was still overweight and out of shape from his long rehab stint at the beginning of the year.  Things grew much worse for the Nuggets as Kenyon Martin was lost for the season after the second game.  The Nuggets desperately needed Nene to produce for them.  However, in the fourth game of the season, Nene banged knees with Marcus Camby and missed the next month.  Upon his return he played limited minutes and missed more games than he produced good results in.

Then, around the middle of February, Nene began to return physically to the player he was before the knee injury.  His performance continued to improve and he became a fixture in the starting rotation.  He turned into a player that could be counted on for thirty or more minutes a night.  His post offense became very strong and that long hoped for jump shot began to make its appearance in games. 

Nene played well enough over the last two and a half months of the season that he ended up posting career high numbers in almost every category.  His rebounding remained slightly inconsistent, but he had ten games that saw him grab at least ten rebounds and another eight games that he pulled down at least eight rebounds accounting for almost half the games played after the All-Star break.  Nene averaged 13.8 points and 8.3 rebounds over the last half of the season and he increased that to 16.6 points and 9.1 rebounds over the last five weeks. 

However, Nene left his most promising effort for last as he was arguably the Nuggets’ second best player in the playoffs against the Spurs.  His 13.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists were garnered while being guarded by the premiere defensive big man in all of basketball in Tim Duncan.  He also shot 58% with games of 7 for 11, 7 for 9 and 4 of 6 over the last three games of the series.  Fans were now clamoring for more shots for Nene instead of complaining about his contract and health. 

Nene still has a ways to go.  His rebounding still requires improvement, but his shot, his passing and his defense are nearing the upper echelon of power forwards.  He has completed his fifth season in the NBA, but is still only 24 (he will be 25 before next season starts).  At this point in his career, he does not need to be a go to scorer, the Nuggets have plenty of those, but he will get great chances to score in the paint, and he will have to continue to play tough defense against the Tim Duncan’s, Zach Randolph’s and Elton Brand’s of the west. 

With the development of Nene, Denver can afford to include either Eduardo Najera or Reggie Evans in a trade to improve the roster heading into next season.  To show how things have changed, just two years removed from the prospect of having to change teams because of the presence of Kenyon Martin, Nene is once again the present and future at the power forward position in Denver.  And now it is Martin who is the constantly injured, overpaid, under producing power forward that will have to adjust to coming off the bench to start next season. 

Enjoy the Warrior Fans, Then Emulate Them

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The Dallas/Golden State series has been by far the most enjoyable first round series.  Just like every other American who does not work for Wal-Mart or Microsoft, I like to root for the underdog, especially when the underdog is more like an under-marmot. 

There are two great reasons to enjoy Golden State’s postseason push.  The style of play could not be more enjoyable.  Putting a team of small forwards and shooting guards on the floor along side the supremely talented Baron Davis is a blast to behold.  The other reason is the Golden State fans.  They are just reveling in every moment.  I will leave the details of what is going on in the Bay Area to the Sports Guy.His contention is that there are only two truly great fan bases left, the fans in New York and the fans in Oakland.  I have been to a great deal of Nuggets games during my lifetime, and I know what a great reputation most fans attribute to themselves, Denver fans included, but I agree with him.  I remember going to Nuggets games in the mid 80’s and how the crowds could change the game.  One specific memory is from a crucial late season game against the Mavs (when both teams were very good).  We were up and cheering, in anticipation, when Michael Adams hit a three late in the game and the crowd erupted.  We stood and cheered throughout the entire timeout and continued after the game had restarted.   Today fans cheer until the teams sit down and then they will start again, at a much lesser volume, when the teams come back on the floor.  They may stand and clap to a song while lights flash around, but they are not actually cheering.The other staple of fans that really bothers me is when the crowd is going crazy and then the opposing team scores.  Suddenly it is time to sit down and shush up.  Keep cheering!  Fans have become completely reactionary.  They sit and wait for the jumbotron to direct them or they expect the team to lift them when it is their job to lift their team. 

I did not get a chance to attend either of the post season games this year, but from what I have heard the crowds were great, but I have no doubt that they were not as good as the crowd in Oakland.  I also  have no doubt that most Nugget fans left the arena with sore hands and raspy throats, but cheering is more about when and why you cheer than how hard you clap your hands or how loud you yell. 

I had season tickets for the 2004-2005 season thanks to a small windfall of cash (not obtained through illegal means I promise you although the IRS and I are still working out the details) and I was greatly disappointed by the fans over the course of the season.  I purposely selected seats in front of a handicapped section so I could stand up with out fearing someone behind me would yell at me to sit down.  During the season I could not believe how difficult it was to get the crowd going.  There are points in a game where the team needs a boost and the crowd would sit there waiting for the team to give them a boost.  If you want a good reason why the Nuggets home court advantage has dwindled over the years, look no further than their support from the stands. 

The blame for this can be spread around to a number of places, but the teams themselves need to realize that they are at the core of the problem.  I read one account from a Nugget fan somewhere, I do not recall where, but he said that the crowd had broken into a chant of, “Lets go Nuggets” in one of the recent playoff games when suddenly some video and noise started playing over the jumbotron and speakers.  It destroyed the cheer and left the crowd disorganized.  Teams have put such a premium on fan experience and blasting entertainment and instruction to the customers that they have destroyed the spontaneity and art to being a fan. 

I do not want it to sound like I am picking on Nuggets fans.  In the few arenas I have been to around the country, it is the same story.  I remember attending the eastern conference semifinals between the Pacers and Knicks in the early 90’s.  Knicks fans would break out in a chant of MVP when Patrick Ewing was shooting free throws.  My cohorts and I tried to crank up an MVP chant several times when Reggie Miller was at the line and people looked at us like we had just spit in their soup.  What do you think that would have done to the Pacers hearing a spontaneous chant of MVP for their best player?  Perhaps a better question is what would Knicks fans have thought if they heard it through their TV?

I am not saying that there are 20,000 plus people in Oakland that are basketball experts and fanatics rolled into one, but it takes a large number of people willing to cheer when their team needs them to instead of when the game operations staff tells them to make a true game changing crowd. 

If you watch the game tonight, I guarantee that there will be a crucial stage in the game where the fans will cheer expecting something to happen instead of waiting to cheer in reaction to something.  That is a crowd that can change a game and that is one thing that we can do that will help the Nuggets get to the next level. 

16-4

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

The Nuggets have won four first round playoff games; the bad news is it has taken four years to do so.  They have not been close to advancing out of the first round yet.  Nuggets fans have been witness to another disappointing end to a potentially promising Nugget season.  Sure they have made the playoffs in each of Melo’s four seasons, but their 16-4 record does not inspire a great deal of pride.

I am not ready to start assessing the good and bad of the season.  We have several months of looking ahead to next year.  For now I am going to look at the game five debacle in an effort to determine what went wrong. The Nugget’s performance was lackadaisical and very scatter shot. 

There were two main stretches in the game that made the difference.  First, the last five minutes of the first half where the Nuggets looked like they were in control of the game.  Secondly, the last eleven minutes of the game when they went from down five to down fifteen. 

The Nuggets went on a tremendous run to finish the first half with the lead after being down 11 points.  It was very impressive and was almost enough to fire up some hope for a game six in the heart of even the crustiest Nugget’s fan.  How did they do it?  Was it just a fluke or did the play a different style on offense?  Here are the last few possessions of the first half for the Nuggets starting at the 4:58 mark when the Nuggets are down 31-42:

- Nene/Anthony Carter pick and roll, Nene fouled at the basket, makes 2 FT – 33-42

- Iverson drives and kicks out to Blake for an open three pointer- 36-42

- Iverson dishes to Melo on fast break after a steal – 38-42

- Melo drives to the basket and gets two offensive rebounds and is fouled, makes 2 FT – 40-44

- Blake drive and dish to Camby, Camby shot blocked, gets his own rebound, ball swings around to Melo who misses a contested three

- Camby misses an open 15 foot jumper

- Iverson drives across the lane and makes a 8 foot jumper – 42-44

- AI drives and kicks out to Blake for an open three – 45-44

- AI dishes to Blake circling back to the three point line for an open three – 48-44

Halftime – Nuggets up by four

Now let’s look at the decisive last five minutes of the game.  Nuggets are down 66-61 with eleven minutes left to play.

- Najera runs a pick and roll with Iverson, misses reverse layup

- Iverson dribbles for twelve seconds, trips and flips the ball out to Anthony Carter who steps out of bounds along the side

- Timeout Nuggets down 70-61

- Designed play to Nene on the block against Oberto makes layup – 63-70

- Nene offensive foul

- Anthony Carter drives on Ginobili, makes the lay up and is fouled, misses FT – 65-73

- Iverson makes contested three pointer – 75-68

- Iverson makes an open three off a pick from Najera – 77-71

- Iverson dribbles for seven seconds and misses a layup

- Iverson misses fifteen foot contested jumpshot

- Timeout Nuggets down 82-71 with 6:03 left

- Set play for Blake coming off baseline screen, airball, Nuggets get the ball out of bounds, Iverson drives and kicks to Melo who makes an open three – 82-74

- Iverson and Nene run pick and roll, Iverson misses contested three

- Melo rushes a contested three, Camby gets rebound and AI makes a driving floater – 86-76

- Defensive three seconds, Melo misses FT

- Iverson dribbles for nine seconds, takes a contested three with the shot clock running down

- Melo misses baseline floater and tip chance

- Iverson drives and dishes to Melo in bad position, Nene gets rebound, called for offensive foul

- Iverson drives to the basket, gets fouled, makes two FT – 91-76

- Iverson drives, loses ball

- Kleiza misses eight foot shot

The first half the Nuggets scored seventeen points in the last five minutes, in the second half, they scored four points in the last five minutes.  What was the difference?  Iverson had four assists and shot 1-1 during the run to end the first half.  Also, Blake was incredibly hot, hitting three three pointers.  On the other hand, over the last eleven minutes of the game, Iverson had one assist and only two other passes to teammates in scoring position and shot 3-7.  The Nuggets also played great defense to close out the first half, but in the second half the Spurs were basically pelting the basket from close range.

The Nuggets defense has been inconsistent at best all season long.  That is a subject for another day.  Iverson’s performance in this series is what I am focusing on now.  Iverson has shown three different styles of play since he arrived.  At first after the trade, he was too unselfish and looked to set his teammates up too often.  (These were the dark days when Melo was still suspended and we were presented with the Diawara brick fest where he would take, and miss, several open threes every game.)  Then, Iverson seemed to find a grove in the last month or so of the season where he was ready to take over when he was on, but did not force things when he was off.

These last four games against the Spurs, Iverson displayed a third style.  It was a style that we were very familiar with from his days in Philly.  He kept taking bad shot after bad shot even when it was clear that he was off.  When his back was against the wall, he showed that the only person he really trusted was himself. 

Carmelo really had a tremendous offensive series.  Had Iverson played more of a decoy/distributing style and let Melo and Nene do more of the hard work, I think the Nuggets would have been much better off.  Would they have won the series?  I think it is pretty safe to say no, but I bet they would have won more than just one game and that 16-4 playoff record over the past four seasons would look a little better and there would be a little more hope heading into next season.

Nuggets on the Brink

Born a Nuggets Fan has moved to Pickaxe and Roll

This may come as a strange time to begin a Denver Nuggets blog with our “heroes” facing elimination at the hands of the hated Spurs, but this playoff season and off-season is going to be the most important for the Nuggets since the mid 1980’s.

I have been greatly disappointed by the results of the last three games of the current playoff series. The inability of the Nuggets to win a game at home against the Spurs for the second time in three years is completely deflating.

Entering this series I was not expecting the Nuggets to win the series, but I did expect them to at least make a strong showing. I wanted to see game six. Another playoff series that saw the Nuggets only win on game would be an utter letdown.

Baring an explosion from Allen Iverson, I do not believe the Nuggets have it in them to win game 5. San Antonio has a killer instinct to close out every playoff series in as few games as possible. The Nuggets have to be as disappointed as the fans are at the result of the previous two home games. It would take a strong effort on every player’s part to put that behind them and play tonight’s game with the passion they brought to Games 1 and 4.

We have all seen the Nugget’s shortcomings on the floor, but let me weigh in on what I believe the real problems are that have caused them to falter.

1. The complete surrender of the transition game to the Spurs. Denver has not tried to run and push the pace for any prolonged period of time. There have been a couple of sequences here and there where they have done it, but they have given up their commitment to running. The Spurs are great at shutting down even the best transition games, but simply accepting that as the status quo of the series has been a grave mistake on the Nuggets’ part.

2. No benefit from the bench. The Nuggets have had no contribution from their bench whatsoever. Najera has had a few moments here and there, but the now benched JR Smith and Linus Kleiza have been complete no shows. This has been an obvious issue throughout the series and we have all seen the statistical comparison between the two benches over and over again, but George Karl has done nothing to attempt to change that. Now that they are on the brink of elimination, we may see some new faces tonight, but even if players like Diawara, DerMarr Johnson, Reggie Evans or Anthony Carter play well the damage has been done. Also, this problem has a direct impact on problem #1. When guys know that they are going to be playing 40+ minutes a game, they want to pace themselves, thus eliminating their commitment to the running game.

I started off by saying that this off-season is crucial to the Nuggets, the reason is they need to add a couple of assets that can come off the bench and provide a boost. The Spurs can bring guys like Horry, Finley (Ginobili is a starter that gets his rest at the beginning of the first quarter instead of at the end of it) and Barry off the bench. If one of them does not fit in well (Barry) they can overcome it with their other options.

3. A coaching mismatch. George Karl has done a pretty good job with this series, but at the one of the two or three defining moments of the series Popovich got the best of him. When the Spurs went small to start the fourth quarter of game 4, the Nuggets were caught in a couple of mismatches that cost them several points. Karl also has also allowed the running game to be dismissed and has not pressed the team to incorporate Nene and Carmelo more. Nene has proven that he is too much for Duncan to handle in the post by himself and has been great on the pick and roll.

To be fair, this is not all Karl’s fault. Whoever has the ball in his hands needs to get the team in the position to succeed. In game 4 Iverson was the man with the ball in his hands and too often he called his own number when both Melo and Nene were shooting very well. However, ultimately, the coach needs to make sure the players do what is smart and if they do not, the responsibility falls on him.

4. Plain old bad luck. The Nuggets have played well, but they are missing that little bit extra something that could put them over the top. It could have come from either Kleiza or Smith hitting a couple of threes. They are a combined 1-18 from distance in the series. If they both just shoot 33%, which is below both of their season percentages, that is good for an extra 15 points. How big would an extra 15 points be in this series? Another example of bad luck is when Blake stepped on the three point line and made a two instead of a three to tie the game. Little things like that haunt you and it takes a special team to overcome obstacles such as those. At this point, the Nuggets are not yet a special team.

You will notice I put no blame on the officials. I honestly believe that this series has been officiated pretty evenly. Nene has been given some leeway on defending Duncan that I have not seen in the past. Ginobili has not been on a parade to the foul line as he was in 2005. If I had any complaints it would be the fact that Duncan has been called for an average of 1.5 fouls a game. That is preposterous and I can only attribute it to his clever statement that he hopes the refs did not hold the Crawford suspension against him.

With that I will say that I believe the Nuggets can win tonight and if they do, I have a difficult time believing the Spurs can win a fifth straight playoff game in Denver. Iverson is due to break out and Melo does not want to go down 4-1 for the fourth time in his four seasons.

Of course when all you can point to who is due what, it is clear that you need chance to be on your side. Maybe the bad luck the Nuggets have been experiencing can fade away for at least one night.